Tuesday, February 22, 2022

10 Reasons Why Democrats Can Retain The House/Senate

The media is predicting a defeat this November for Democrats, with the Republicans taking the House back and possibly even the Senate. I disagree, and so does former Labor Secretary Robert Reich. He gives us 10 reasons why he thinks the Democrats can win in November. He says:

It’s a good day to contemplate whether Joe Biden has a prayer of keeping a Democratic House and Senate next year. Call me a hopeless optimist, but I think he does. 

Yes, I know: Republicans are suppressing votes, Democrats are hopeless at messaging, Biden’s poll numbers are in the basement. But let me give you ten reasons why I think there’s a decent chance Democrats can maintain control of both the House and the Senate, and maybe even gain some seats.

First: It’s likely that job growth between now and November will remain strong (if the Fed doesn’t ruin everything by raising interest rates too high, too soon). We’re still 3.5 million jobs short of where we were in February 2020 — giving the economy lots of room to grow. Biden and the Democrats can take credit for putting the economy back on track.

Second: Inflation will begin edging downward, as supplies of goods increase and demand shifts back to services — removing the one big economic negative. If Omicron infections continue to drop, the decline in inflation could start as early as April.

Third: When the pandemic seems to be over — and there’s a good chance it will feel over by the spring — the nation will breathe a huge collective sigh of relief, and Biden can take credit for getting shots into the arms of 80 percent of Americans.

Fourth: If tensions continue or escalate with Russia over Ukraine – or, lord help us, Russia invades Ukraine – America will unite behind its Commander-in-Chief.Republicans and Democrats in Congress are already demonstrating a remarkable degree of unity over Russia. War is horrific, of course, but it tends to garner support for those in power (at least in its months).

Fifth: Democrats will almost certainly pass Build Back Better in some form this spring. It won’t be nearly as ambitious as the original, but probably enough to generate some visible benefits for families. Republicans will, of course, oppose it, which means even more help for Democrats in November. To pay for Build Back Better, Democrats will increase taxes on corporations and the super-rich (even Joe Manchin is in favor of doing this). Republicans will surely fight these measures to protect rich corporations. Another big plus for Democrats.

Sixth: The courts are pushing back against Republican gerrymandering, giving Democrats better opportunities to hold on to or gain seats.

Seventh: In late spring, Republican appointees on the Supreme Court are likely to overturn Roe v. Wade. Evangelicals will be delighted, but most Americans will be horrified – adding to their motivation to back Democrats in November.  

Eighth: The findings of the January 6 Committee will be reported. It won’t be a pretty picture for Trump or the Republican Party. If Democrats are wise, they’ll let Republican Liz Cheney, vice-chair of the committee, lead the charge – presenting the findings and blasting traitorous Trump and seditionist Republicans on every TV network, radio outlet, and whistle-stop around the country. Reminded of the sedition, more voters will swing toward Democrats.

Ninth: In light of this report – and desperate to keep the 2024 Republican nomination for himself – Trump will increase the volume and intensity of his wacko conspiracy theories and other lies. This will motivate even more Democrats as well as Independents and moderate Republicans to vote for Democrats in November.  

Tenth and finally: If they’re smart, Joe Biden and the Democrats will center their midterm campaign message on the vulnerability of average working Americans to big corporations and Wall Street, which continue to siphon off most economic gains while the typical American is barely holding on. Biden and other Democrats will show that the GOP is still the party of trickle-down economics, corporate welfare, and crony capitalism – a party that’s been blocking a slew of common-sense Democratic measures to help working Americans — which, they’ll argue, is why we need more Democrats in the House and Senate.  

Presto. A huge turnout in favor of Democrats this November, which results in Democrats retaining or even increasing their margins in the House and Senate.  

Is this really possible? Democrats have snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory too many times for me to feel confident. But the scenario I’ve sketched is far from being out of the question.  

1 comment:

  1. #6 is certainly nice, and might even largely erase any harm their new voter suppression laws will have. But isn't the real problem their new election subversion laws? Not only is it far more powerful for their state legislatures to be able to toss out the results of any elections that don't go their way, there is a fundamental principle that their R-appointed judges can hide behind to refuse to even hear cases against the results of their legislatures stealing elections outright.

    States set their own election laws, who gets to vote, how the vote is conducted, and how the votes are counted.

    There are federal laws that put the courts in charge of some aspects of the "who gets to vote" bit, though whether, say, the courts decide that a property qualification to vote is not allowed because it has intent to racially discriminate depends a lot on the court. The Warren court certainly would have been able to discern intent to discriminate, but I doubt the Roberts court would.

    When we get to the questions of how elections are conducted, and how the results are certified, we get into areas in which states have had even less federal oversight imposed. States are pretty clearly responsible for dealing with potentially stolen elections, as there has been no federal executive dept or agency set up to do that. If a state legislature decides that an election that saw too many, or any, Ds elected to House or Senate, was stolen by those urban D voters, it isn't clear that isn't something they can decide at their unreviewable discretion.

    Well, unreviewable by the courts, with the Constitution making each chamber of the Congress the final judge of elections to their memberships. Both chambers right now have rules that say that only those whose election wins have been certified by their states are seated on the opening day of the new Congress. That membership that got seated automatically that opening day then has unreviewable discretion to determine, by simple majority vote, who gets seated at any point after opening day. That's what these R state legislatures could do, withhold certification of however many results they need to make sure that Rs are in the majority on opening day. It's what they're planning to do.

    Why would they pass laws making clear their authority to do exactly this unless that's exactly what they plan to do? These people are about as subtle as Putin. Believe them when they tell you that they plan a coup, this time a workable coup.


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