As regular readers of my blog will know, I love polls. Polls can tell us how things are moving in an election, but only in a general way. Having said that, I think there are some things that must be said about polls (especially political polls).
First, no poll will accurately predict the outcome of any election. They are just an educated guess. Some may get close, while others may be very wrong.
Second, polls base their guess on a small sample, whether a few hundred or several thousand. But an election may involve millions of voters (especially a statewide or national election).
Third, not all polls are equal. Some use poor samples or weighted questions (that will elicit a certain response). The best use adequately weighted samples and neutral questions.
Finally, any poll (even a good one) can be wrong. Their predicted winner can lose if his/her supporters don't vote and the opponent's supporters vote in large numbers.
This leads to my most important belief. NEVER LET A POLL DETERMINE WHETHER YOU WILL VOTE OR NOT! It doesn't matter whether the polls say your candidate is far ahead or far behind, your vote is always needed. Polls are just guesses, while votes determine who will run our government (and affect your life in many ways).
Whether you vote early, vote by mail, or vote on Election Day, please vote!
Polls may be fun and somewhat informative, but votes are far more important. Voting protects and preserves our democracy.
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