Thursday, August 31, 2023
Trump Support Strong After Debate And Indictments
The chart above reflects the result of the new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 26th and 29th of a nationwide sample of 562 Republicans and Republican leaners. No margin of error was given just for this sample.
67% Of Americans Approve Of Labor Unions
These charts are from the Gallup Poll -- completed between August 1st and 23rd of a nationwide sample of 1,014 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
How Should We Deal With The Decline Of China?
The main challenge we will face from the People’s Republic in the coming decade stems not from its rise but from its decline — something that has been obvious for years and has become undeniable in the past year with the country’s real estate market crash.
Western policymakers need to reorient their thinking around this fact. How? With five don’ts and two dos.
First, don’t think of China’s misfortunes as our good fortune.
A China that can buy less from the world — whether in the form of handbags from Italy, copper from Zambia or grain from the United States — will inevitably constrain global growth. For the U.S. chip maker Qualcomm, 64 percent of its sales last year came from China; for the German automaker Mercedes-Benz, 37 percent of its retail car sales were made there. In 2021, Boeing forecast that China will account for about one in five of its wide-body plane deliveries over the next two decades. A truism that bears repeating is that there is only one economy: the global economy.
Second, don’t assume the crisis will be short-lived.
Optimists think the crisis won’t affect Western countries too badly because their exports to China account for a small share of their output. But the potential scale of the crisis is staggering. Real estate and its related sectors account for nearly 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product, according to a 2020 paper by the economists Ken Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang. It is heavily financed by the country’s notoriously opaque $2.9 trillion trust industry, which also appears to be tottering. And even if China averts a full-scale crisis, long-term growth will be sharply constrained by a working-age population that will fall by nearly a quarter by 2050.
Third, don’t assume competent economic management.
Last month Donald Trump described the rule of China’s president, Xi Jinping, as “smart, brilliant, everything perfect.” The truth is closer to the opposite. As a young man, according to a peer from his youth, Xi was “considered of only average intelligence,” earned a three-year degree in “applied Marxism” and rode out the Cultural Revolution and its aftermath by becoming “redder than red.” His tenure as supreme leader has been marked by a shift to greater state control of the economy, the intensified harassment of foreign businesses and a campaign of terror against independent-minded business leaders. One result has been ever-increasing capital flight, despite heavy-handed capital controls. China’s richest people have also left the country in increasing numbers during Xi’s tenure — a good indication of where they think their opportunities do and do not lie.
Fourth, don’t take domestic tranquillity as a given.
Xi’s government’s recent decision to suppress data on youth unemployment — just north of 21 percent in June, double what it was four years ago — is part of a pattern of crude obfuscation that mainly diminishes investor confidence. But the struggles of the young are almost always a potent source of upheaval, as they were in 1989 on the eve of the Tiananmen Square protests. Never mind Thucydides’ trap; the real China story may lie in a version of what’s sometimes called Tocqueville’s paradox: the idea that revolutions happen when rising expectations are frustrated by abruptly worsening social and economic conditions.
Fifth, don’t suppose that a declining power is a less dangerous one.
In many ways, it’s more dangerous. Rising powers can afford to bide their time, but declining ones will be tempted to take their chances. President Biden was off the cuff but on the mark this month when he said of China’s leaders that “when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.” In other words, as China’s economic fortunes sink, the risks to Taiwan grow.
Sixth, do stick to four red lines.
American policymakers need to be unbending and uncowed when it comes to our core interests in our relationship: freedom of navigation, particularly in the South China Sea; the security of Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific allies; the protection of U.S. intellectual property and national security; and the safety of U.S. citizens (both in China and in the United States) and residents of Chinese ancestry. Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is also a part of an overall China strategy, in that it sends a signal of Western political resolve and military capability that will make Beijing think twice about a military adventure across the Taiwan Strait.
Seventh, do pursue a policy of détente.
We should not seek a new cold war with China. We cannot afford a hot one. The best response to China’s economic woes is American economic magnanimity. That could start with the removal of the Trump administration tariffs that have done as much to hurt American companies and consumers as they have the Chinese.
Whether that will change the fundamental pattern of Beijing’s bad behavior is far from certain. But as China slides toward crisis, it behooves us to try.
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
Legal Abortion Remains Popular Among All But Republicans
This chart reflects the results of the Civiqs Poll. They query at least a thousand registered voters every day. This is where the poll results stand on August 28th.
Note that Republicans are at odds with every other group on this question.
DeSantis Earned The Boos He Got At Vigil For Slain Blacks
After his racist actions as governor of Florida, DeSantis had the audacity to attend a vigil for three slain Blacks killed by a racist. He was not well received. Here is how Ja'han Jones describes it at MSNBC.com:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was loudly booed Sunday while attending a vigil for the three Black people gunned down by a white man at a Jacksonville store the day before.
Through his administration’s assault on inclusive learning plans that may make white students feel uncomfortable, its efforts to dilute Black voter power, its efforts to whitewash racist massacres against Black people and its efforts to tout the purported benefits that slavery afforded Black people, DeSantis has arguably become Florida’s most prominent face of anti-Black rhetoric.
The governor, who’s vying for the Republican presidential nomination, routinely claims that his state is where “woke” — that is, the term denoting Black consciousness — “goes to die.”
And with that reputation in mind, he was the last person many Black Floridians wanted to hear from after three Black people were killed at a Dollar General store by a shooter who authorities say was motivated by anti-Black hate. . . .
One of the audience members yelled, “Your policies caused this!”
Rep. Maxwell Frost, D-Fla., agreed with the icy reception.
“This is the energy needed,” Frost wrote on X. “I understand that some electeds + pastors want ‘unity,’ but folks have to understand that for Gov DeSantis, this is a campaign stop. Don’t let your community be used as a prop. If he wanted to help, he’d do something.”
Another Florida Democrat, state Rep. Angie Nixon, said DeSantis bears some responsibility for the racist hatred. Speaking on MSNBC on Sunday, she characterized the governor’s condemnation of the Jacksonville killings as “hollow statements” and added: “At the end of the day, the governor has blood on his hands.”
“He has had an all-out attack on the Black community with his ‘anti-woke’ policies, which we know very well was nothing more than a dog whistle to get folks up — and riled up — in the way in which it just happened,” said Nixon, whose district includes where the shooting occurred.
Ironically, the reaction to DeSantis has given him a crash course in critical race theory, an academic framework he has sought to ban in Florida that focuses on the ways racism is interwoven with the nation’s law and institutions.
Understanding that relationship would help explain to DeSantis how he — as an executive who authorizes bigoted laws — is seen as culpable for, or at least permissive of, racist violence in Florida. DeSantis denies the existence of systemic racism, but the reaction to the Jacksonville mass shooting shows he’s a poster boy for it.
Because in many people’s eyes, white supremacy is no different whether you’re operating from the governor’s mansion or aiming a gun. Fundamentally, the goal is the same: to place Black people beneath you.
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
71% Say It Will Be Hard To Get An Unbiased Jury For Trump
The charts above are from an Ipsos Poll -- done between July 7th and 17th of a nationwide sample of 1,017 adults, with a 3.2 point margin of error.
About 71% are not confident an unbiased jury can be seated for Donald Trump's trial -- and 54% say they would not want to be on such a jury.
We Must Continue Moving Forward To Complete The Dream
Sixty years ago, the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and hundreds of thousands of fellow Americans marched on Washington for jobs and freedom. In describing his dream for us all, Dr. King spoke of redeeming the “promissory note to which every American was to fall heir” derived from the very idea of America — we are all created equal and deserve to be treated equally throughout our lives. While we’ve never fully lived up to that promise as a nation, we have never fully walked away from it, either. Each day of the Biden-Harris administration, we continue the march forward.
That includes a fundamental break with trickle-down economics that promised prosperity but failed America, especially Black Americans, over the past several decades. Trickle-down economics holds that taxes should be cut for the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations, that public investments in priorities such as education, infrastructure and health care should be shrunk, and good jobs shipped overseas. It has exacerbated inequality and systemic barriers that make it harder for Black Americans to start a business, own a home, send their children to school and retire with dignity.
Vice President Harris and I came into office determined to change the economic direction of the country and grow the economy from the middle out and bottom up, not the top down. Our plan — Bidenomics — is working. Because of the major laws and executive orders I’ve signed — from the American Rescue Plan, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, my executive orders on racial equity and more — we’re advancing equity in everything we do making unprecedented investments in all of America, including for Black Americans.
Black unemployment fell to a historic low this spring and remains near that level. More Black small businesses are starting up than we’ve seen in over 25 years. More Black families have health insurance. We cut Black child poverty in half in my first year in office. We are delivering clean water and high-speed internet to homes across America. We’re taking on Big Pharma to reduce prescription drug costs, such as making the cost of insulin for seniors $35 a month. We’re taking the most significant action on climate ever, which is reducing pollution and creating jobs for Black Americans in the clean energy future.
This administration will continue to prioritize increasing access to government contracting and lending. We awarded a record $69.9 billionin federal contracts to small, disadvantaged businesses in fiscal 2022. We’re taking on housing discrimination and increasing Black homeownership. To date, we’ve invested more than $7 billion in historically Black colleges and universities to prepare students for high-growth industries. We’ve approved more than $116 billion in student loan debt cancellation for 3.4 million Americans so that borrowers receive the relief they deserve. And a new student debt repayment planis helping Black students and families cut in half their total lifetime payments per dollar borrowed. We’re doing all of this by making sure the biggest corporations begin to pay their fair share, keeping my commitment that Americans earning less than $400,000 a year not pay a single penny more in federal taxes.
And to help guide these policies, I made it a priority to appoint Black leaders to my Cabinet, my staff, in the judiciary and to key positions in agencies such as the Federal Reserve to ensure policymakers represent the experiences of all Americans in the economy.
But we know government can’t do it alone. Private-sector leaders have rightly acted to ensure their companies are more reflective of America, often in response to their employees, their customers and their own consciences. Right now, the same guardians of trickle-down economics who attack our administration’s economic policies are also attacking the private sector and the views of the American people. A recent poll from the nonpartisan Black Economic Alliance Foundation shows overwhelming bipartisan support for promoting diversity as central to a company being more innovative and more profitable, and central to fulfilling the promise of our country for all Americans. Despite the attacks, we all must keep pushing to create a workforce that reflects America.
For generations, Black Americans haven’t always been fully included in our democracy or our economy, but by pure courage and heart, they have never given up pursuing the American Dream. We saw in Jacksonville, Fla., yet another community wounded by an act of gun violence, reportedly fueled by hate-filled animus. We must refuse to live in a country where Black families going to the store or Black students going to school live in fear of being gunned down because of the color of their skin. On this day of remembrance, let us keep showing that racial equity isn’t just an aspiration. Let us reject the cramped view that America is a zero-sum game that holds that for one to succeed, another must fail. Let us remember America is big enough for everyone to do well and reach their God-given potential.
That’s how we redeem the promissory note of our nation.
Monday, August 28, 2023
Why Do We Let Any Idiot Get A Gun In The United States?
Currently, there have been 28,284 gun deaths and 473 mass shootings (where at least 4 people were shot) this year. And both of those numbers are on a record pace with four months left in the year. Why is this happening? It doesn't happen in any other developed nation.
Republicans try to place the blame on anything but guns. They will tell you it's because of mental illness. Some may be, but not all -- and there is no more mental illness in the United States than in any other country.
They will tell you it's because of violent video games. But other nations have access to the same video games, and it is not causing an exorbitant number of deaths and mass shootings in those countries.
They will tell you it is because of the declining interest in religion in this country. But the European nations have even less interest in religion that American citizens do -- and it is not causing massive gun deaths and mass shootings there.
The obvious answer is because there are too many guns in this society (more than one for every citizen) and it's easy for anyone (regardless of how dangerous they are known to be) to get any kind of gun (and ammunition) they want.
Republicans will also tell you that passing stricter gun legislation would be a violation of the Second Amendment to the Constitution. That is simply a lie! The right to own a gun, like our other rights, is not absolute.
We have the right to free speech, but there are restrictions on it. You cannot yell "fire" in a crowded theater, and you cannot urge another to commit a violent act. And those restrictions are deemed constitutional.
We have the right to vote, but there are restrictions on it. Most states deny that right to criminals serving a sentence for their crime. And that restriction is deemed constitutional.
There are restrictions on guns that are constitutional and supported by a majority of Americans. One of these is a strict background check law that would deny the right to buy or receive a gun to those deemed to be violent (criminals, terrorists, domestic abusers, and some of the mentally ill).
Currently, there are large loopholes in the background check law. And many states don't report offenders as they are supposed to do. As many as 40% of gun buyers do so with going through a background check. That must be stopped, and over 80% of citizens (including gun owners) want it stopped. They want a stricter background check law that can be enforced.
It simply makes no sense not to do this. Who are the Republicans protecting by their opposition to a stricter background check law? It's not honest and law-abiding citizens. They could still purchase or receive a firearm under a stricter background check law. The only people Republicans are protecting are criminals and other dangerous people -- the people who do not have a right to own a firearm!
Republicans are wrong on this issue, and it's time for voters to make that clear.
Sunday, August 27, 2023
Skipping The Debate Did Not Affect Trump's Primary Lead
The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll. Polls were done August 18-20 and August 24 of nationwide samples of at least 1,256 Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.
Trump Is Just An Image With No Platform Or Plan
The following post is by Robert Reich:
I want to talk about symbols, images, and fascism.
Here is Trump’s mug shot from his arraignment yesterday in Georgia. It’s a look of defiance — which I’m sure he practiced repeatedly beforehand — intended to make his supporters and his Republican base feel defiant, too.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this is Trump’s thousand-word response to Wednesday night’s Republican debate, which he declined to attend.
He timed his arraignment in Georgia for yesterday so that it — and this photo — would dominate Thursday’s and Friday’s news, rather than anything or anyone emerging from the debate.
But a defiant photograph isn’t “news.” It’s a symbol, an image. Which is exactly what Donald Trump is. He has no political platform, no specific policy agenda, no new ideas, and no plan for what he’ll do if he gets a second term.
He exists as a symbol for the anger, discontent, bigotry, and vindictiveness he has unleashed in America.
He is as close as America has come to a fascist leader, who doesn’t want his followers to think or analyze. He wants them only to feel.
Trump’s lackeys fell in line, expressing the defiance Trump projected in his mug shot.
On Newsmax, Sarah Palin called for civil war.
Fox’s Laura Ingraham told viewers that Trump’s arrest was proof that government officials are trying to “take them out.”
Fox’s Sean Hannity said the Department of Justice will target Republicans “until there’s nothing left of the party.”
All brainless bile.
Last Thursday, Trump complained that Fox News “purposely show the absolutely worst pictures of me, especially the big ‘orange’ one with my chin pulled way back. They think they are getting away with something, they’re not. Just like 2016 all over again … And then they want me to debate!”
Of course he’s angry. For the man who’s all symbol and image and without substance, a photo like the following conveys a brainless buffoon. It must drive him crazy.
But Trump is not a brainless buffoon. He’s a cunning marketer, a diabolic manipulator of the public, a sly producer of his own daily reality show. His lead in the GOP’s presidential sweepstakes has grown. He will almost certainly be the Republican candidate for president next year — even if he’s in jail.
How to debate a symbol? How to take on an image? How should Biden and the Democrats, and everyone who cares deeply about this country, respond to a demagogue who obsesses over what he projects rather than what he stands for? How to deal with a fascist who doesn’t want followers to think but only to feel rage?
Expose him for who he is.
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