Wisconsin May Be A Bellwether - But the 2026 Election Still Won't Be Easy

Democrats are celebrating the Supreme Court win in Wisconsin, and they should. It was a good win. 

But it is no guarantee that Democrats will easily glide to a huge win in the 2026 midterm elections. 

Why do I say that?

For one thing, many of the MAGA voters didn't turn out for the Wisconsin election. They looked at Trump's 11 point win in that state in 2024, saw Musk was pouring millions into the Supreme Court race, and decided an easy win was in the bag and they didn't need to show up. They won't make that mistake in 2026.

Musk involving himself in the race was also a mistake. He (and Republicans) misjudged just how unpopular he is currently. However, that may not be a problem in November of 2026. It is likely that he will have already done the damage that Trump wanted him to do by then - and will no longer be a part of the Trump administration.

In addition, Democrats are not very popular right now. Several polls put their approval at an embarrassing 37%.

The one thing Democrats have going for them is that inflation hasn't let up, and Trump's new tariffs are very likely to make it even worse. Republicans are trying to counter that that claiming the pain will be for a short time so long-time gains can be accomplished. They need to convince independent voters (who voted Republican because they thought they would fix inflation) that is the case.

It will be up to Democratic candidates to get the truth out. The continuing (and increasing) inflation can no longer be blamed on Biden - or any other Democrat. Thanks to his new tariffs on nearly every country, Trump will own the inflation. The pain will be long-term and the gain nonexistent. Democrats must make sure voters understand that.

Trump is making life much more difficult for working Americans. If the voters hold him responsible, then Democrats will do well. But it won't be easy. It never is.