I live in House District 31 in Texas. To say it's a red district is an understatement. GOP Rep. John Carter won by over 20 points in 2024, and I can't remember a time when Democrats came close to carrying the district.
District 31 is one of the districts changed by the new Republican redistricting plan. Thinking they had this district in the bag (as in the past), they added a largely Democratic portion of Travis County (north Austin) to the district. They expected by taking Democrats out of a blue district and adding them to a red one they could turn both districts red.
That may have been a mistake. It seems that the swing away from Republicans and to Democrats in elections this year has been about 13 points - including a bright red district in Tennessee that went from a 22-point GOP advantage to a 9-point advantage. That 13 point swing is because a lot of Independents who lean Republican are mad about inflation and affordability and switched their votes.
Independents in Texas are also mad about the same thing. If the 13 point swing holds true for District 31 (and there is no reason to think it wouldn't), then the New Democrats added to the district could be enough to swing it to a Democratic candidate.
Texas Republicans are smug and think they pulled a fast one on Texas Democrats. But I think it could backfire on them. By reducing the GOP advantage in some districts to help them in others, they could give Democrats a better chance to win in more districts - especially if 2026 is a blue wave election.
In the new District 31, Democrats have a better chance of winning than has been true for many years. I'm starting to get a bit excited.
No comments:
Post a Comment
ANONYMOUS COMMENTS WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. And neither will racist,homophobic, or misogynistic comments. I do not mind if you disagree, but make your case in a decent manner.