"Conceding Greenland Will Not Mollify Trump - He Will Simply Come Back For More"

The following is from widely respected political scientist Francis Fukuyama:

Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced that he would be imposing a 10 percent tariff on February 1 on eight European countries that had agreed to send forces to Greenland, and that tariffs would be increased to 25 percent by June 1 if they did not agree to support the sale of the island to the United States. Over the past couple of months, there has been a debate over whether Trump was serious about claiming Greenland for himself or just trolling the Europeans. It appears that he is indeed deadly serious.

I want to say this straight out: as an American, I have one thing to say to my many European friends—do not back down in this confrontation. Up to now, both the EU and the major European powers have sought to appease Trump by offering him concessions, flattery, personal gifts, and other forms of tribute. This strategy has not worked and should be abandoned immediately. Donald Trump is fundamentally a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him.

Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand. He despises weakness and those who display it. Last spring, the EU cut a trade deal with him that accepted a 15% tariff on all European goods with no retaliation against American products. This was a bad decision. The EU, which in terms of population and wealth is on a par with the United States, should have taken a common position and retaliated. What makes any European think that conceding Greenland will mollify Trump? He will simply come back for more later.

The arguments that Europeans have used for a concessionary policy is that they are still dependent on the United States for security and need help in dealing with Russia. They also argue that they don’t want to provoke a mutually destructive trade war. But at this point, Trump’s America has amply demonstrated that it will not be a reliable ally when push comes to shove.

It has already abandoned Ukraine and stated in its national security strategy document that Europe has fallen behind the Western Hemisphere in terms of American priorities. Europeans should keep in mind that those countries that stood up to Trump’s threats in 2025, which include Brazil, India, and China, have actually done well for themselves. They’ve increased domestic support, and in the case of China, they forced America to back down.

My European friends need to keep in mind that Donald Trump is not the United States. A majority of Americans are dismayed and outraged by his policies, and they will likely vote against him and the Republican Party in the coming November election. It may be the case that the world will have to suffer a global recession as more countries stand up to Trump and retaliate against his policies. But a U.S. politician who wants to weaponize trade and use it as an instrument for territorial aggrandizement really needs to be stopped.