"Conceding Greenland Will Not Mollify Trump - He Will Simply Come Back For More"

The following is from widely respected political scientist Francis Fukuyama:

Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced that he would be imposing a 10 percent tariff on February 1 on eight European countries that had agreed to send forces to Greenland, and that tariffs would be increased to 25 percent by June 1 if they did not agree to support the sale of the island to the United States. Over the past couple of months, there has been a debate over whether Trump was serious about claiming Greenland for himself or just trolling the Europeans. It appears that he is indeed deadly serious.

I want to say this straight out: as an American, I have one thing to say to my many European friends—do not back down in this confrontation. Up to now, both the EU and the major European powers have sought to appease Trump by offering him concessions, flattery, personal gifts, and other forms of tribute. This strategy has not worked and should be abandoned immediately. Donald Trump is fundamentally a bully who wants to dominate everyone around him.

Trying to placate him with concessions is a fool’s errand. He despises weakness and those who display it. Last spring, the EU cut a trade deal with him that accepted a 15% tariff on all European goods with no retaliation against American products. This was a bad decision. The EU, which in terms of population and wealth is on a par with the United States, should have taken a common position and retaliated. What makes any European think that conceding Greenland will mollify Trump? He will simply come back for more later.

The arguments that Europeans have used for a concessionary policy is that they are still dependent on the United States for security and need help in dealing with Russia. They also argue that they don’t want to provoke a mutually destructive trade war. But at this point, Trump’s America has amply demonstrated that it will not be a reliable ally when push comes to shove.

It has already abandoned Ukraine and stated in its national security strategy document that Europe has fallen behind the Western Hemisphere in terms of American priorities. Europeans should keep in mind that those countries that stood up to Trump’s threats in 2025, which include Brazil, India, and China, have actually done well for themselves. They’ve increased domestic support, and in the case of China, they forced America to back down.

My European friends need to keep in mind that Donald Trump is not the United States. A majority of Americans are dismayed and outraged by his policies, and they will likely vote against him and the Republican Party in the coming November election. It may be the case that the world will have to suffer a global recession as more countries stand up to Trump and retaliate against his policies. But a U.S. politician who wants to weaponize trade and use it as an instrument for territorial aggrandizement really needs to be stopped.

Trump Gets A Stern Warning About The Gag Order

Judge Merchan issued a five page ruling on Trump's latest violation (his 10th) of the court's gag order.  Trump was fined another $1000, but the judge noted that the fines were having no effect and threatened to jail Trump if he continues violating the order. And to make sure Trump understood him, the judge spoke directly to to him in open court. He said:

It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent; therefore, going forward, this Court will have to consider a jail sanction if recommended.

Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand that the last thing I want to do is to put you in jail. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president, as well.

There are many reasons why incarceration is truly a last resort for me. To take that step would be disruptive to these proceedings, which I imagine you want to end as quickly as possible.

 I also worry about the people who would have to execute that sanction: the court officers, the correction officers, the Secret Service detail, among others. I worry about them and about what would go into executing such a sanction. Of course, I’m also aware of the broader implications of such a sanction. The magnitude of such a decision is not one-sided.

But, at the end of the day, I have a job to do, and part of that job is to protect the dignity of the judicial system and compel respect. Your continued violations of this court’s lawful order threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks which constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. I cannot allow that to continue. So, as much as I do not want to impose a jail sanction, and I have done everything I can to avoid doing so, I want you to understand that I will, if necessary and appropriate.

Trump Claims He Didn't Known (But He was Told 10 Times)

Trump spent most of his Monday briefing just trying to make excuses for why he was so slow to act regarding the Coronavirus pandemic. He bragged that he had done exactly the right thing.

He didn't.

Trump did nothing until January 31st, when he banned travel to the U.S. from China. But even that was too late. Over 380,000 people had arrived in the U.S. from China by that date (after the virus was known to be in China). And even after January 31st, another 40,000 people arrived from China. None of those people were given a test for Coronavirus.

After January 31st, nothing else was done by Trump until the middle of March. Why? Nothing was done in all of February and the first couple of weeks in March -- even though the cases were beginning to pile up in the United States.

Trump is trying to say he didn't know how serious the Coronavirus pandemic was. That's just not true. There were at least 10 times before the beginning of March that there were notifications of how serious the pandemic was or could be. He just ignored all of those warnings. He gambled that the virus would go away without him having to do anything (which he feared would hurt his re-election chances). He lost that gamble, and thousands of Americans have paid with their lives (and thousands more will do so).

Here (from Axios.com) are at least 10 notifications that Trump ignored before March:

On Jan. 18, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar first briefed Trump on the threat of the virus in a phone call, the New York Times reports. Trump made his first public comments about the virus on Jan. 22, saying he was not concerned about a pandemic and that "we have it totally under control."

On Jan. 27, White House aides met with then-acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney to try to get senior officials to take the virus threat more seriously, the Washington Post reports. Joe Grogan, the head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, warned it could cost Trump his re-election.

On Jan. 29, economic adviser Peter Navarro warned the White House in a memo addressed to the National Security Council that COVID-19 could take more than half a million American lives and cause nearly $6 trillion in economic damage. 

On Jan. 30, Azar warned Trump in a subsequent call that the virus could become a pandemic and that China should be criticized for its lack of transparency, per the Times. Trump dismissed Azar as alarmist and rejected the idea of criticizing China.

Also on Jan. 30, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a global health emergency. WHO has only done so five times since gaining that power in 2005.

On Feb. 5, senators urged the administration in a briefing to take the virus more seriously and asked if additional funds were necessary. The administration made no requests at the time for emergency funding.

On Feb. 14, a memo was drafted by health officials in coordination with the National Security Council that recommended the targeted use of "quarantine and isolation measures," per the Times. Officials planned to present Trump with the memo when he returned from India on Feb. 25, but the meeting was canceled.

On Feb. 21, the White House coronavirus task force conducted a mock exercise of the pandemic. The group concluded that the U.S. would need to implement aggressive social distancing, even if it caused mass disruption to the economy and American lives, per the Times.

On Feb. 23, Navarro doubled down on his warnings in another memo, this time addressed to the president, stating that up to 2 million Americans could die of the virus. 

On Feb. 25, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Nancy Messonnier publicly warned of the virus threat and said "we need to be preparing for significant disruption in our lives.” Trump reportedly called Azar fuming that Messonnier had scared people unnecessarily and caused the stock market to plummet, per the Times.

Carbon Dioxide Is At Its Highest Level in 800,000 Years

(This image is from allamericanenviro.com.)

Donald Trump and his Republican cohorts are still denying the reality of global warming (global climate change). But that doesn't mean it's not happening. July was the hottest month ever recorded, and greenhouse gases continue to build up and have a disastrous effect on this planet -- with the main greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide) reaching a level that has not happened in the last 800,000 years.

Are we close to the tipping point -- the point at which any efforts to stop or mitigate any damage from global warming would be useless? I don't know, but the warming continues -- and it's happening faster than the scientists had predicted. It is imperative that we act soon.

Consider this article by Jordan Davidson at EcoWatch:

A bleak new federal report found that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to levels the world has not seen in at least 800,000 years, highlighting the irreversible and mounting deleterious effects of human activity on the planet, as ABC News reported.

Global carbon dioxide concentrations reached a record of 407.4 parts per million during 2018, the study found. That is 2.4 ppm greater than 2017 and "the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800,000 years," the report said, according to CNN.

It wasn't just the amount of carbon dioxide that set record levels. Other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide also continued a rapid rise into the atmosphere.

Together, the global warming power of greenhouse gases was 43 percent stronger than in 1990, according to the State of the Climate report released Monday by the American Meteorological Society, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information.

Greenhouse gases are not the only thing rising. Global sea levels also reached their highest levels on record for the seventh consecutive year, as ABC News reported. The report says that ocean levels are rising about an inch per decade, but that number may need to be revised if ice melt at the poles accelerates.

For global temperatures, 2018 ranked fourth, behind 2016, 2015 and 2017 for the warmest on record. That top four finish for 2018 is despite a La Niña system over the Pacific that cooled ocean waters for part of the year.

So far, 2019 is on track to be the warmest year in recorded history, according to NOAA.
Global sea temperatures also set a record level in 2018. "This record heat reflects the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the top 2,300 feet (700 meters) of the ocean," according to NOAA. "Oceans absorb more than 90 percent of Earth's excess heat from global warming."

The State of the Climate report noted that glaciers continued to melt at an alarming rate for the 30th consecutive year, as CNN reported.

"Every year since the start of the 21st Century has been warmer than the 1981-2010 average," the report said, as CNN reported. "In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere — carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide — continued to increase and reach new record highs."

The 29th annual release of the State of the Climate report was led by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information and relies on contributions from more than 470 scientists from nearly 60 countries around the world. It incorporates tens of thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets and provides a detailed update on global climate indicators and notable weather events, according to NOAA.

"This is yet another in a series of expert, science-based reports that continue to sound the alarm about the climate crisis," said Marshall Shepherd, a professor of geography and atmospheric sciences at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society, to CNN. "[The] DNA of climate change is clearly seen now in our weather, agriculture productivity, water supply challenges, public health, and even national security concern."

"The findings from their State of the Climate report rise above some blog or opinion on social media," Shepherd added. "Through the process of science, they are sounding an alarm about the 'here-and-now' climate crises."

Global Climate Change Could Be Worse Than We Were Told

(Cartoon image is by Chan Lowe in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.)

The original predictions of climate scientists were that the Earth could warm by a couple of degrees centigrade. That would raise the sea level by about two to four feet, and increase the devastation caused by weather events (drought, hurricanes, tornadoes, fires, etc.). That would make the Eath's climate far less hospitable for humans. And sadly, we are already starting to see some of the negative effects of that global warming (global climate change).

But now we learn that it could be far worse than originally predicted. A team of international scientists has published a new study in the publication of the National Academy of Sciences. They say the warming could be as much as six to eight degrees, and sea levels could rise between 30 and 200 feet. That would make the planet virtually uninhabitable.

Why could that happen? Here's what Will Steffen, the study's lead author, had to say:

"Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of [3.6 degrees] may trigger other Earth system processes, often called 'feedbacks,' that can drive further warming — even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases."

Unfortunately, the United States is doing nothing to prevent this, since we have climate deniers in the White House and in control of Congress.

As We Remember Hawking, We Must Heed His Warning

Stephen Hawking has died, and the world will be a little worse for his absence. Fortunately, he left a remarkable body of scientific work. He also warned us about what we are doing to our planet. The following is part of an article at Think Progress by Joe Romm:

Renowned physicist and best-selling author Stephen Hawking died Wednesdaymorning in his Cambridge, England home at the age of 76.

Hawking had become an iconic figure because of his scientific brilliance, his popular writings, and the grace and humor with which he waged a multi-decade fight against ALS, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a neuromuscular disease also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease.

As physicist Michio Kaku, told the New York Times: “Not since Albert Einstein has a scientist so captured the public imagination and endeared himself to tens of millions of people around the world.”

In recent years, Hawking used his status as a legendary scientist to warn the public about the dangers posed by a number of  catastrophic threats to humanity, particularly global climate change.

In 2016, he warned that climate change was the gravest threat facing humanity. That September he also joined 377 members of the National Academy of Sciences in signing an open letter that began, “Human-caused climate change is not a belief, a hoax, or a conspiracy. It is a physical reality.”

The letter warned about a Trump victory, explaining that “it is of great concern that the Republican nominee for President has advocated U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord” and that “such a decision would make it far more difficult to develop effective global strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change.”

In July 2017, Hawking told the BBC that President Trump’s climate policies could permanently destroy the Earth’s livable climate.

“We are close to the tipping point where global warming becomes irreversible,” he explained. “Trump’s action could push the Earth over the brink, to become like Venus, with a temperature of 250º” Celsius (482°F).

While “climate change is one of the great dangers we face,” the good news, Hawking noted, is that “it’s one we can prevent if we act now.” But the tragedy is that “by denying the evidence for climate change, and pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement, Donald Trump will cause avoidable environmental damage to our beautiful planet, endangering the natural world, for us and our children.”. . .

The good news is that the rest of the world is committed to meeting its Paris carbon emission reduction pledges. But we are fast approaching irreversible tipping points, as Hawking warns, so Trump’s pro-pollution policies might well be enough to ensure that we do cross them.

Hawking became famous for his study of the past, and his 1998 book, A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes,” which has sold more than 10 million copies. But it’s his warnings about the future we most need to heed today.

Warning: The U.S. Is On The Path Toward Authoritarianism

(The cartoon image is by Rod Anderson in The Christian Post.)

If you really want to know what it's like living under an authoritarian government, then you should listen to someone who has done that. Garry Kasparov, the former World Chess Champion, lived in Russia -- and he saw that country move from a communist state to a brief democracy, and then morph into another authoritarian government (under Putin).

Kasparov has a warning for citizens of the United States. He sees the U.S. trodding the path toward an authoritarian government -- much like Russia moved from it's fragile democracy to a Putin dictatorship.

Kasparov sent the following 8 tweets back in December, but they are even more relevant today, as Trump continues to attack the government agencies of this country.

Trump Has The 4 Warning Signs Of A Budding Tyrant

(This image of Donald Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)

The following is just a small part of an excellent article by Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times. It should scare the hell out of you (and make you determined to vote blue this November).

Two political scientists specializing in how democracies decay and die have compiled four warning signs to determine if a political leader is a dangerous authoritarian:

1. The leader shows only a weak commitment to democratic rules. 

2. He or she denies the legitimacy of opponents. 

3. He or she tolerates violence. 

4. He or she shows some willingness to curb civil liberties or the media.

“A politician who meets even one of these criteria is cause for concern,” Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, both professors at Harvard, write in their important new book, “How Democracies Die,” which will be released next week.

“With the exception of Richard Nixon, no major-party presidential candidate met even one of these four criteria over the last century,” they say, which sounds reassuring. Unfortunately, they have one update: “Donald Trump met them all.”

We tend to assume that the threat to democracies comes from coups or violent revolutions, but the authors say that in modern times, democracies are more likely to wither at the hands of insiders who gain power initially through elections. That’s what happened, to one degree or another, in Russia, the Philippines, Turkey, Venezuela, Ecuador, Hungary, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Poland and Peru.

We Were Warned About Trump's Dangerous Incompetence

(Caricature of Donald Trump is by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)

The following is most of an excellent post is by Lindsay Gibbs at Think Progress:

It is appropriate to be appalled at the current state of our government. But none of us should be particularly shocked. We were warned, time and time again, by people who know Trump well and who know the role of the presidency well, that the former was in no way fit to fill the latter.

And nobody warned us about the danger Trump posed to our nation more forcefully or with more prescience than Hillary Clinton.

“[A]s Michelle Obama has said, the presidency doesn’t change who you are, it reveals who you are,” she said in Raleigh, North Carolina days before the election. “And I think it’s fair to say that my opponent has already revealed who he is.”

Clinton knew then that Trump’s allegiance to Putin and Russia was not only problematic, but dangerous.

“It is pretty clear you won’t admit that the Russians have engaged in cyber attacks against the United States of America. That you encouraged espionage against our people. That you are willing to spout the Putin line, sign up for his wish list, break up NATO, do whatever he wants to do,” she said during the third presidential debate.

“[Trump] would rather believe Vladimir Putin than the military and civilian intelligence professionals who are sworn to protect us.”

The day after Trump fired Comey, he met with Russian officials in the White House and reportedly divulged classified information about ISIS that had been gleaned from allies, a move that put American sources in jeopardy and infuriated allies.

“He praises dictators like Vladimir Putin and picks fights with our friends — including the British prime minister, the mayor of London, the German chancellor, the president of Mexico and the Pope,” Clinton said last October.

“The United States has kept the peace through our alliances. Donald wants to tear up our alliances.”

Clinton told us that other foreign leaders were bothered by Trump’s off-the-cuff rhetoric — “words are important,” she said during the first debate, “especially when you’re president” — and discussed how his volatile and victim-oriented temperament would be a threat to democracy.

“You know, every time Donald thinks things aren’t going in his direction, he claims whatever it is, is rigged against him,” Clinton said. “This is a mind-set. This is how Donald thinks, and it’s funny, but it’s also really troubling. That is not the way our democracy works.”

“He is not just unprepared — he is temperamentally unfit to hold an office that requires knowledge, stability and immense responsibility,” Clinton said. “Rather than solving global crises, he would create new ones.”

. . . at the end of the day, the only thing comforting about any of this is how predictable it all really was.

“Now, I know some people still want to give Trump the benefit of the doubt. They hope that he will eventually reinvent himself — that there’s a kinder, gentler, more responsible Donald Trump waiting in the wings somewhere,” Clinton said in a speech about the alt-right and Russian influence on Trump’s campaign last August.

“Because after all, it’s hard to believe anyone — let alone a nominee for president — could really believe all the things he says. But the hard truth is, there’s no other Donald Trump. This is it.

“Maya Angelou, a great American whom I admire very much, she once said: ‘When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.’ Well, throughout his career and this campaign, Donald Trump has shown us exactly who he is. We should believe him.”

She’s right. We really, really should have.