Trump And Democrats Both Get What They Wanted - Paxton As GOP Senate Nominee

The primary run-off is over in Texas. And the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate is Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term Republican John Cornyn. 

The election was not close. Paxton bested Cornyn by over 27 points. 

The outcome made Donald Trump happy. Just a few days before the run-off, he had endorsed Paxton. Cornyn supported Trump and his policies about 90% of the time, but Paxton is a true Trump sycophant. He will support Trump 100% of the time, even if what Trump is doing is corrupt, illegal, or unconstitional.

The outcome also made Democrats happy. Instead of running against Cornyn (who likely would have won), they get an opponent with a lot of baggage - a man who has exhibited bot immoral and illegal behavior. And their candidate comes with almost no negative baggage at all (although Republicans will spend millions of corporate dark money dollars trying to paint him as some kind of radical).

It has been over 30 years since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas. Texas is still a very red state, and it will not be easy for Democrat James Talarico to win the Senate race. But he has probably the best chance of any candidate in over 30 years.

Talarico will be helped by the unpopularity of Donald Trump. His job approval is upside down even in bright red Texas - and most voters blame him for the poor economy, especially the rising prices on nearly everything. This could push Independents to vote for the Democratic candidate.

In my opinion, it's going to come down to turnout. The MAGA republicans will vote, and if turnout is sparse (like it usually is in a midterm election), Paxton will win. But if there is a massive turnout, then Talarico has a very good chance of winning.