NYT / Siena Poll Has The Texas Senate Race A Dead Heat

 

The charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 19th and 26th of 656 likely Texas voters, with a margin of error of 4.5 points.

New Poll Has The U.S. Seante Race In Texas A Virtual Tie

 

The chart above is from the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll -- done between June 5th and 12th of 1,200 registered Texas voters, with a 2.83 point margin of error.

Early Poll Has Talarico With A 3-Point Lead Over Paxton In Texas

 

The charts above are from the Texas Opinion Research Poll -- done on May 27th and 28th of 1,670 likely Texas voters, with a 2.8 point margin of error.

Trump And Democrats Both Get What They Wanted - Paxton As GOP Senate Nominee

The primary run-off is over in Texas. And the GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate is Ken Paxton, who ousted four-term Republican John Cornyn. 

The election was not close. Paxton bested Cornyn by over 27 points. 

The outcome made Donald Trump happy. Just a few days before the run-off, he had endorsed Paxton. Cornyn supported Trump and his policies about 90% of the time, but Paxton is a true Trump sycophant. He will support Trump 100% of the time, even if what Trump is doing is corrupt, illegal, or unconstitional.

The outcome also made Democrats happy. Instead of running against Cornyn (who likely would have won), they get an opponent with a lot of baggage - a man who has exhibited bot immoral and illegal behavior. And their candidate comes with almost no negative baggage at all (although Republicans will spend millions of corporate dark money dollars trying to paint him as some kind of radical).

It has been over 30 years since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas. Texas is still a very red state, and it will not be easy for Democrat James Talarico to win the Senate race. But he has probably the best chance of any candidate in over 30 years.

Talarico will be helped by the unpopularity of Donald Trump. His job approval is upside down even in bright red Texas - and most voters blame him for the poor economy, especially the rising prices on nearly everything. This could push Independents to vote for the Democratic candidate.

In my opinion, it's going to come down to turnout. The MAGA republicans will vote, and if turnout is sparse (like it usually is in a midterm election), Paxton will win. But if there is a massive turnout, then Talarico has a very good chance of winning.

Second Texas Poll Shows Talarico Leading Both Republicans For Senate

 

The charts above show the results of the University of Texas / Texas Politics Poll -- done between April 10th and 20th of a sample of 1,200 registered Texas voters, with a 2.83 point margin of error.

Early Poll Shows Talarico Leading Both Cornyn And Paxton In Texas

 

These charts are from the Texas Public Opinion Research Poll -- done between April 17th and 20th of a sample of 1,018 likely general election voters in Texas, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

Trump Thinks He Can Control The Texas GOP Senate Nomination (But Paxton Says NO)

 

GOP Senators are scared of the results of the Texas primary elections, and have been begging Trump to endorse incumbent John Cornyn. It looks like they have convinced Trump to do so. But in his narcissistic glory, he wants to go further and demand that Cornyn's opponent drop out of the race. But Trump may not have the power he thinks he has. Ken Paxton is saying he'll stay in the race no matter who Trump endorses.

Talarico Wins Texas Democratic Senate Primary (As Dems Turn Out More Votes Than GOP)

 

Texas Democrats have their nominee for the U.S. Senate. James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett in a hard fought race (52.8% to 45.9%) - with both candidates getting more than a million votes. On Wednesday morning, Crockett (being the good Democrat she has always been) conceded saying:

“This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee. Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track. With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win. I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect Democrats up and down the ballot.”

We still don't know who the Republican nominee will be. Neither incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton could get 50% of the vote, so they will be in a run-off in late May. 

This will help Talarico. He can get busy raising funds and campaigning across the state while the Two Republican candidates fight each other (in what has been a rather nasty campaign) for another two months.

The Republicans spent over $100 million in this campaign, and it is expected they will spend another $100 million in the run-off. This is money that could have been spent helping Republicans in other states stave off what is looking like it could be a nationwide blue wave.

It also looks like Democrats may have a small enthusiasm edge. Spending only about $35 million in the primary, they turned out 2,252,358 votes. The $100 million spent by Republicans got them 2,141,929 (about 110,429 fewer votes than in the Democratic primary). 

Add to this the fact that Donald Trump is underwater in red state Texas (45% approve to 49% who disapprove), and it looks like Texas may have its best chance of electing a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in several decades.

Crockett And Paxton Lead Their Party Primary Races For Senate In Texas

 

The charts above are from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs Poll -- done between January 20th and 31st of 550 likely Democratic primary voters and 550 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error for both groups is 4.18 points.

I'm Not A Doctor - But I Play One In Texas (SATIRE)

 

In the following funny (and frightening) satire by Alexandra Petri (The Washington Post), Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton tries to explain why he is overruling a doctor and a judge to prevent an needed abortion. 

“Judge Guerra Gamble is not medically qualified to make this determination and it should not be relied upon. A TRO is no substitute for medical judgment.”

— Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, writing to doctors who have received a court order allowing an abortion to end a nonviable pregnancy

There is no substitute for medical judgment, except the judgment of me, Ken Paxton.

Am I a doctor? No. I’m something better than a doctor: a Ken. My accessories include: no medical expertise and a boundless reservoir of cruelty. And one time, I saw a horse. I have also been told that my handwriting is bad and that I am not patient. This all screams “doctor” to me.

If we were on a plane or in a theater and someone yelled, “There is an emergency! Is there a doctor in the house?” I would absolutely raise my hand. “I am a man in a position of political authority in Texas happy to make life hell for all pregnant people. In the state of Texas, that’s better than a doctor!”

Indeed, the process for obtaining an abortion in Texas is simple. All you have to do is get a recommendation from your doctor that one is medically necessary, hire a legal team, get your case in front of a judge and obtain a court order! And then a man named Ken gets to say, “No! Let’s take this to the Supreme Court. Also, if you proceed, I will threaten your doctors!” And then the Texas Supreme Court gets to affirm Ken’s preference and halt your order. Simple. Routine. Elegant.

“This seems like a horrible, ghoulish way to behave when a person needs to access emergency medical care,” you might say. Sure! But we are not talking about a person in this case. We are talking about a woman. Totally different, in my medical opinion.

Am I a doctor? Look, I’ve always felt that nothing should limit what you can be or do, except the objections of a man named Ken in the state of Texas. Well, I’m a man named Ken in the state of Texas, and I think I am probably a doctor. And the state Supreme Court agrees.

I mean, of course, in all ways that count (chiefly, I get to make medical decisions for you), I am a doctor. Actually, maybe it would even be better if I weren’t! That would keep me from being unduly hidebound and unimaginative when faced with questions like: Which pregnancies are viable? Which are life-threatening? For too long, we’ve been constrained by what was medically possible. No more. I always try to bring an open mind and lots of questions. Should blood really be inside the body rather than outside? Maybe, instead of an epidural, we should try prayer? If a body has a uterus, then is there any room in it for legal rights? Questions of that kind!

What I don’t know about women’s health could fill a book! A book that I would refuse to read, on principle.

I am a small-government conservative. I believe that the government should be so small that it can fit into your uterus and make all medical decisions for you. Don’t try to expel it! That’s not allowed. Not in Texas! I am not a doctor, but, as a doctor, I will tell you: It is not medically safe.

I can’t believe that these judges are trying to interfere in a medical decision, as we have forced them to do under Texas state law. The effrontery! The gall! A substance I believe that I know a lot about, from my years practicing medicine! It’s what the brain is made of!

TO BE CLEAR, I AM TECHNICALLY NOT A DOCTOR, but I do get mad when people call Jill Biden one. I am only not a doctor in the sense that I haven’t been to medical school, was never a resident and think that there is a strong chance babies are carried by storks. Teach the controversy! I also have not read an anatomy book. (I hear they contain inappropriate pictures! More information requested from those in the know!) But in every other sense, I am a doctor: I am a male Republican Texan in a position of authority.

Want an abortion? In Texas, we believe in bodily autonomy and control over your medical choices. For me, Ken. Not for you, yourself. You can’t be trusted with it! But don’t worry. In Texas, there is no substitute for medical judgment. Oh, sorry! Typo. In Texas, there is no (substitute for medical judgment). The “No!” is from me, Ken Paxton.

Texas Has The Worst Attorney General In The Country

I'm sure there are some other bad attorney generals in some states, but none can match Ken Paxton of Texas in both idiocy and criminality. Here's what James Hohmann says about Paxton in The Washington Post:

Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general of Texas, has been under felony indictment for securities fraud since 2015, and a judge has ordered him to sit for a deposition in the case next month. He is under FBI investigation for assisting a real estate developer who allegedly hired his mistress and remodeled his home. Four of Paxton’s former top lieutenants are suing to get their jobs back, saying they were fired in violation of the Texas Whistleblower Act for reporting potential crimes by the attorney general to the feds.

No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and former congressman Beto O’Rourke is extremely unlikely to win his race against Gov. Greg Abbott. Beating Paxton should have been Democrats’ best chance to end the drought. But they nominated former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza, whose claim to fame is helping a 17-year-old undocumented immigrant get an abortion while in federal custody.

Paxton now appears likely to be reelected next month as the chief law enforcement officer in a state of nearly 30 million people. Meanwhile, the Texas State Bar’s Commission for Lawyer Discipline is seeking court sanctions against him for peddling false claims of voter fraud after the 2020 election. It was Paxton who filed Texas’s frivolous lawsuit seeking to throw out the votes of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. After the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the case, Paxton warmed up the crowd for President Donald Trump at the “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021, that preceded the Capitol insurrection.

Just 34 percent of Texans think Paxton has the integrity to serve as attorney general, according to a poll conducted last month by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, including only 50 percent of Republicans. But Paxton led Garza by seven points in the same survey because 68 percent of Republicans nevertheless plan to vote for him.

Paxton has filed as many lawsuits challenging President Biden’s policies as anyone, including about a dozen on immigration alone, which plays to his advantage. He has earned loyalty from social conservatives as an outspoken foe of reproductive rights. He recently ran away from someone serving him a subpoena in a case seeking to clarify whether abortion rights groups will be liable for helping women cross state lines to access care. A federal judge has ordered Paxton to testify in that suit.

Paxton announced in June that he would defend Texas’s long-unenforced law against sodomy if the Supreme Court followed Justice Clarence Thomas’s suggestion to “correct the error” of its 2003 decisionin Lawrence v. Texas, which struck down a 1973 state law criminalizing gay sex.

This fixation on cultural issues might have distracted Paxton from the core responsibilities of his job. The Associated Press reports that his office recently dropped a series of human trafficking and child sexual assault cases after losing track of one of the victims. The story also revealed that a Paxton adviser was quietly let go after less than two months on the job when he showed child pornography during a staff meeting.

“One prosecutor said he quit in January after supervisors pressured him to withhold evidence in a murder case. Another attorney signed a resignation letter in March that warned of growing hostility toward LGBTQ employees,” according to the Associated Press.

That office drama followed a 2020 revolt by senior staff. Eight former deputies accused Paxton of abusing power, accepting bribes and tampering with government documents. Everyone who reported Paxton was either fired or left under pressure. Among the allegations was that Paxton, who otherwise opposed covid-related restrictions, invoked the public health emergency to issue an opinion in the middle of the night that delayed a foreclosure sale for one of the developer’s properties.

Paxton issued a 374-page report last August that he claimed exonerates him and argues that he has the right to fire any appointees for any reason. He denies all wrongdoing in every case and, channeling Trump, cries that he’s the victim of a “witch hunt.” He’s said he’s being persecuted by “the Biden FBI,” even though the investigation began when Trump was still president and Trump appointed the current FBI director. Paxton’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment, including an interview request.

Garza highlights Paxton’s ethics problems on the stump, but abortion is what animates her. The Morning News poll showed the limits of this issue: Texans are evenly split over whether Roe v. Wade should have been overturned, and 49 percent believe abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. As a result, no prominent Republican has endorsed Garza.

Paxton is so well-positioned that he is not even bothering to air television commercials in what has been a frustratingly sleepy contest. He doesn’t publicize campaign events and mostly restricts appearances to friendly MAGA outlets. Last month, Trump appeared at a Paxton fundraiser in Bedminster, N.J.

The former president has been Paxton’s ace up his sleeve. His support is how Paxton held off a well-funded primary challenge from George P. Bush this past spring, and it’s why he’s favored to win a third term next month despite being the worst attorney general in the United States. Tribalism is a hell of a drug. 

Still No Appeal To Decision To Void Texas' Voter ID Law

A few weeks ago, the full Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals struck down the odious Texas Voter ID law -- saying it discriminated against minorities. They sent the case back to the U.S. District Court in San Antonio so a decision could be reached on how to implement their decision.

At that time, plaintiffs and the state of Texas came to an agreement. That agreement stated that anyone who was on the voter registration rolls could vote -- as long as they showed a voter registration card, or some other kind of ID to show they were the person on the voter rolls (and that ID could be something as innocuous as a gas or electric bill in their name -- and no photo was required on the ID used). They also agreed that no voter could be challenged unless there was proof that they were not the person listed on the voter rolls.

I had thought the matter was finally over, but last week Attorney General Paxton made a big deal out of announcing that the Circuit Court's decision would be appealed to the United States Supreme Court. Oddly enough though, no appeal has been filed (even though it is only about 10-11 weeks until the election is held). This is very unusual for Paxton, as the Lone Star Project tells us:

In the past Paxton has announced new lawsuits or appeals AFTER they’ve already been filed.  For example, when he announced a challenge to the federal government directive regarding school bathrooms—he issued a press release the day he filed the lawsuit.  The same was true in a petition filed against the EPA in June—Paxton issued a statement the day after the petition was filed in federal court.

It seems to me that Paxton has no intention of appealing. The man is stupid, but not so stupid as to think that appeal could succeed in the current divided Supreme Court. It is doubtful the appeal would even be heard by the court, and if it was, it would end in a 4 to 4 tie (which would uphold the Fifth Circuit Court's decision). It is also extremely unlikely any appeal could be heard and determined before the election. In short, an appeal would be a waste of time and money.

So what is Paxton doing? He's trying to keep the GOP's teabagger base happy in the short time until the election. The Republicans will probably win Texas, but it's closer than in the past -- and they can't win if a lot of angry teabaggers stay at home instead of voting. This appeal is just a political ploy.

NOTE -- The photo above of Attorney General Paxton is the mug shot at the Collin County Jail when he was arrested a little over a year ago and charged with three felonies (which are still pending).

Paxton is charged with two first-degree felonies related to accusations that he failed to disclose he was being paid by a McKinney technology firm when he encouraged investors to buy into the company. He is also charged with a third-degree felony for failing to register as a broker when he connected clients to a friend’s investment firm, which he admitted to publicly. 

AG Paxton Should Resign (Or Turn Duties Over To Others)

The photo at left is the "mug shot" (aka, booking photo) of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. He has been charged, indicted, and arrested on felony charges that could get him many years in prison. Republicans want us to believe these charges are politically-motivated, but that is ridiculous. The investigation of Paxton was done by the Texas Rangers (the most respected law enforcement officials in the state).

Personally, I think Paxton should resign his position as Attorney General -- or at the very least, turn his duties over to others and stay away from the office until his charges are adjudicated. How can he possibly uphold his duty as the chief law enforcement officer in the state, when he has been charged with breaking the law himself?

I find myself in agreement with the traditionally conservative editorial staff of the Dallas Morning News. They wrote:

Monday’s arrest of Attorney General Ken Paxton on three felony charges underscores that the judicial process is working exactly as it should. A Collin County grand jury’s indictment of the state’s top law enforcement officer is neither a declaration of guilt or innocence but rather a statement that enough evidence exists to argue the case in court.

Paxton deserves the same presumption of innocence as any other citizen, even if he already has admitted the 2012 violation of state securities law that undergirds one of the three charges. The far more serious two additional charges, of failing to disclose to clients that he was making a commission off their investments, adds significant heft to the case. Prison time is possible.

It’s against this backdrop that we urge Paxton to put the integrity of his office first. The state’s top law enforcement officer is required to defend the laws and state Constitution. He now stands charged as a violator of the very laws he’s sworn to uphold.

Paxton in 2003 voted to stiffen Texas law so that failure to register as an investment agent constitutes a felony. Ignorance of the law is never a valid excuse, but especially not when the admitted violator helped pass the law.

If Paxton isn’t considering resignation, he should at least delegate major prosecutorial decisions to senior assistants. Morale among a staff of dedicated legal officers cannot help but suffer under the cloud over their boss. Besides, Paxton’s priorities now focus on his own defense, which further underscores the need to delegate his official duties.

Many Paxton defenders have dismissed the hoopla leading to Monday’s arrest as part of a Democrat-led political witch hunt against the staunchly conservative Republican attorney general. The trajectory of this case suggests otherwise, however.

It is true that Texans for Public Justice, a liberal nonprofit in Austin, spearheaded the case against Paxton. But once a formal investigation began, the process was stripped of political bent.

The lead investigative agency was the Texas Rangers. And the grand jury that weighed the case and opted for indictment came from Collin County, one of the state’s most solidly conservative districts. These are Paxton’s peers, chosen from among those he represented as a state representative and senator in the decade before becoming attorney general.

Paxton is the last person who should be surprised by these charges. Ahead of his election last year, newspapers around the state warned that the legal questions surrounding his securities work could come back to haunt him. That helped form the basis of this newspaper's decision not to recommend him in the primary, runoff or general election.

But voters had the final call, and they overwhelmingly supported him; that’s how the democratic process is supposed to work. Now it’s time for the judicial process to do likewise.

Texas Attorney General To Be Charged With Stock Fraud

It looks like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal troubles may be much more serious than previously thought. Paxton (pictured in photo by WFAA) had admitted during the campaign that he broke the law by selling securities with registering as a broker -- and the voters elected him anyway (showing the iron grip the GOP has on this state currently).

But Texas Rangers have uncovered evidence that Paxton's crimes were much more serious than just failing to register. He seems to have committed securities fraud -- a first degree felony punishable by up to life in prison.

Here is how Tanya Eiserer of WFAA describes Paxton's new legal problem:

The criminal investigation against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken a more serious turn, with special prosecutors now planning to present a first-degree felony securities fraud case against him to a Collin County grand jury, News 8 has learned.

Special prosecutor Kent Schaffer told News 8 Wednesday afternoon that the Texas Rangers uncovered new evidence during the investigation that led to the securities fraud allegations against the sitting attorney general.

"The Rangers went out to investigate one thing, and they came back with information on something else," Schaffer told News 8. "It's turned into something different than when they started."

Schaffer, a Houston criminal defense attorney, said the securities fraud allegations involve amounts well in excess of $100,000. He declined to comment specifics of the fraud allegations.

A first-degree felony conviction is punishable by up to life in prison.