Obamacare Is Growing And Most People Support Subsidies

The bad news just keeps growing for the Republican teabaggers that hate the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). As the chart above shows, the number of people that bought private insurance through the health exchanges authorized Obamacare topped 8 million people for 2014. Now the sign-ups are being done for 2015, and the number of purchasers has already topped 9.5 million (and will likely top 10 million, since the deadline is not until February 15th). With every passing day, there are more people who now have insurance -- and will be angered if the GOP repeals Obamacare and takes that insurance away from them.

Note that I included in the chart above the number of people who have bought their insurance through the federal health care exchange instead of a state exchange -- about 7.1 million (and that is also expected to grow before the deadline in February). I included that, because right-wingers have have case pending in the Supreme Court that would deny the subsidy to anyone getting insurance through the the federal exchange instead of a state exchange. If they win that case, most of that 7.1 million would lose their insurance -- because they got a subsidy to help them pay for it (and probably won't be able to afford insurance without the subsidy).

The congressional Republicans  support that right-wing effort, because it would do what they have not been able to do -- virtually destroy Obamacare. But they are playing with fire. As the chart below shows, a significant majority of the American public likes the subsidies -- and if the court rules against those subsidies, they want Congress to re-instate them quickly. That puts the GOP Congress between a rock (their teabagger base) and a hard place (the public). Their only hope of not losing support somewhere is for the Supreme Court to rule against them.

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There is also news that the House will once again vote to repeal Obamacare. They know that such a move will not be approved by the Senate, and could not survive a presidential veto. But they want to give the new members a chance to vote to repeal to keep their teabagger base in their home districts happy. It is a purely political move. That's good for them, because they would make a lot of people unhappy if they could actually repeal it (a move that would be supported by less than a third of the public).

Presidential Job Approval Is Still Rising

The Gallup Poll publishes daily a three-day average of the job approval for the president -- and the latest job approval number was 50%. That's the highest job approval percentage since June of 2013 (more than a year and a half ago). This latest survey was done between January 23rd and 25th of a random national sample of 1,527 adults, and has a margin of error of 3 points.

They also looked at the latest numbers for several groups, and compared them to the presidential job approval just one month ago -- in December 2014. As the chart above shows, the approval of the president has risen in almost every group (and the two groups showing a small drop in approval have a difference that is within the poll's margin of error).

The truth is that about half of all Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled Congress (which is acting like it has a mandate of support from the people) is still mired down at about 15.2% (the RealClearPolitics average of all the latest polls).

The Republicans had better be careful about butting heads with an increasingly popular president. They could find themselves back down into single digits (and go into the next election with most Americans hating them).

Americans Concerned About Inflation - And They Should Be

The chart above was made from a recent Rasmussen Poll. That survey was done on January 18th and 19th of a random national sample of 800 adults, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

It shows that a whopping 70% majority of Americans is concerned about inflation. Some of you may wonder why such a large segment of the population is worried about inflation. After all, the current inflation rate is not abnormally high. Personally, I think they are justified in that worry.

Even a small inflation rate can eat away at the buying power of a pay check, especially if that pay is stagnant (i.e., not going up). And that is exactly what has been happening in this country -- not just for a couple of years, but for decades. Ever since the Republicans were able to initiate their "trickle-down" economic policies during the Reagan presidency, the wages of the bottom 80% of Americans has been stagnant (while the top 20% has seen a small increase, and the top 5% has seen a substantial increase -- especially the top 1%). That means inflation has been lowering the buying power of 80% of Americans, and has been doing that since the 1980's -- and it continues to do that today.

I wish I could say that things will soon change, and most Americans will soon see their wages rise significantly -- but that is just not true. Now that the Republicans are in control of both houses of Congress, there is no chance the harmful trickle-down policy will be changed. The Republicans oppose everything that could put an upward pressure on wages.

They oppose raising the minimum wage to a livable level (which would also means a rise in the wage of many who are making just a little over the minimum wage). They oppose strengthening labor unions (which is where the most successful upward pressure on wages has originated). They oppose stopping the exporting of good American jobs, or eliminating the tax break corporations receive for exporting those jobs. They oppose tax cuts for the working and middle classes (while supporting more tax cuts for the rich and corporations). And they oppose requiring capitalists to share some of the rising productivity with their workers.

With the GOP in charge, wages are going to remain stagnant, and the buying power of those wages is going to keep going down -- even if inflation remains low. That is why the American people should be concerned about inflation.

GOP's Anti-Abortion Bill Runs Into Trouble And Is Withdrawn

The Republicans were thrilled when they took control of both houses of Congress in the last election. They thought they finally had the power to force the president (and Democrats) to bow to their wishes. And one of those wishes was to chip away at a woman's right to choose. They know they could not outright overturn that right (which is guaranteed by the Supreme Court decision in Roe vs. Wade), but they thought they could keep putting restrictions on that right until it was worthless.

And they wasted no time in starting. In the first month of the 114th Congress, the GOP members of the House proposed a bill that would outlaw abortions after 20 weeks (Pain Capable Unborn Child Protection Act). But the bill ran into trouble before even reaching the House floor for a vote. The few moderate Republicans left in the House rebelled, because they didn't want to bring up an issue that could hurt them in the next election, and they were joined by the House's GOP women, who were appalled at the rape language in the bill.

This posed a situation that could be embarrassing for the party, and for House GOP leaders. If those rebellious elements joined House Democrats in voting against the bill, there was a real possibility that the bill could suffer defeat in that strongly Republican body -- and that would make the Republicans look weak to their base (and other Americans). What were the House GOP leaders to do?

They blinked -- and withdrew the bill from consideration. The bill will not be brought to the House floor for a vote (at least not now, and not in its present form). Instead, they are bringing up a bill they know they can pass (because they passed it in the 113th Congress) -- the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act. That would be largely a symbolic vote (since no federal funds are currently used to pay for abortions), and aimed at trying to show their base (many of them evangelicals) that they are doing something that will please them.

The Republicans are beginning to learn that trying to govern is a lot harder than just trying to obstruct what others are trying to accomplish. I expect this will not be the only time that lesson is rather harshly brought to their attention.

114th Congress Opens With Abysmal Approval Ratings

The 114th Congress has opened, but the public is not ready to believe they will be any better than the last couple of Congresses. The Gallup Poll (top chart) measures their approval at a dismal 16% (only slightly better than congressional ratings in the last three years).

The chart below is from a new YouGov Poll, and it verifies the continuing low opinion of Congress (putting approval at an even lower 9%). Republicans are a bit more optimistic, giving Congress an 18% approval -- and that is to be expected since their party controls that Congress.

But 18% is nothing to brag about (and only slightly better that 16% or 9%). The truth is that most Americans want Congress to stop playing ideological political games, and compromise with President Obama for the good of the country (and the many people still hurting from the recession) -- and Congress has given them no reason to think that has any chance of happening.

Gohmert Falls Short Of Speaker's Job -- By 202 Votes

Yesterday I posted about Louie Gohmert's quixotic and rather ridiculous attempt to be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives. Today I have the sad (not really) duty to inform you that crazy Louie has fallen short of that goal -- 202 votes short (out of the 205 votes needed to be elected). Louie got 3 votes, and one of those was his own vote.

The other two GOP representatives who cast a dubious vote for Louie were Jim Bridenstine of Oklahoma and Randy Weber of Texas. The voters in Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District and Texas's 14th Congressional District should think long and hard about re-electing these two in 2016. Their belief that Louie Gohmert has the intelligence, skill, and leadership potential to be Speaker of the House shows their link to reality to be tenuous at best.

But Louie's huge defeat doesn't mean the country dodged a bullet. That's because the clearly incompetent John Boehner got 216 Republican votes -- enough to re-elect him to the Speaker position.

(The image above is from the Facebook page of the Democratic Party.)