Recession Is Over (Not)

According to the media, the recession we've been in for the past year is finally over. They're basing this on the fact that the nations Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a broad measure of the country's economic activity, was up by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2009. The stock market was so happy with the news that it gained 199 points (the best day in three months).

But don't be too quick to celebrate a return to good times. There are several reasons to doubt the recession is really over -- not the least of which is the fact that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that officially dates the beginning and end of recessions, has not declared it over.

Normally a recession is not declared to be over until there have been at least three straight quarters of economic growth. There was also growth noted in the second quarter of 2008, but the next quarter had negative growth and the recession worsened. So far, there has only been one quarter of growth in GDP. Here is why that growth may not be sustainable:

* The White House Council of Economic Advisors says the federal economic stimulus package is responsible for 3-4% growth in GDP. Since total GDP grew by only 3.5%, it is probable that the entire growth was due to expanded government spending and not to a revival of the private sector. While the federal stimulus was helpful to the economy, a true recovery only happens when the private sector grows.

* Most of the private sector growth was in sales of automobiles and houses -- both spurred by (once again) a government stimulus for these industries ("cash for clunkers" and a tax cut for first time home buyers). There is no real evidence that the public in general is confident enough in the economy to begin spending again in other areas.

* Private industry is still lowering the amount of inventory they keep on hand. Although this depletion slowed in the third quarter, it was still declining. This shows the private sector was actually contracting instead of expanding. True economic growth will not be happening until the private sector begins to expand their inventory.

* While the third quarter showed growth in GDP, it also had a loss of about a half-a-million jobs. As long as the economy loses more jobs than it produces, there will be no real recovery. With each job that is lost, the public has less money to spend and less ability to help stimulate a private sector recovery with that spending.

This is a very shaky recovery at best, and at worst, it may not be a recovery at all. It would not surprise me in the least to again see negative growth in GDP again in the next couple of quarters.

With unemployment still rising, it could be years before this economy is back on its feet. So put the champagne back in the cellar -- we've still got a long way to go.

Lost In The Clouds

Political Cartoon is by Bob Englehart in The Hartford Courant.

Life Is Tenuous

Sometimes we forget just how tenuous life can be. Most of us expect to live to a ripe old age and don't really consider the possibility that it might not happen. But life is not fair and is no respecter of persons. It can end in a heartbeat. This odd story brings that fact home.

Taylor Mitchell was a young Canadian folk singer with a bright future ahead of her. Although she had just turned nineteen, she had already been nominated for a Canadian folk music award and her career seemed to be taking off. All of that ended with a walk through a national park.

Mitchell was taking a solitary walk through the Cape Breton Highlands National Park in Nova Scotia when she was attacked by a pair of coyotes. Other visitors heard her screams and notified park rangers. Rangers said the coyotes were "extremely agressive" and they shot and killed one of them. They are still hunting for the other.

It is extremely rare for coyotes to attack a human. I grew up in the country listening to the night howling of coyotes, but it was rare to even see one. They are afraid of humans and will usually run away before a human can even get close to them. They live by killing small animals like rabbits or scavenging on the leftovers from other animals' kills (or roadkill).

But in spite of the extreme rarity, the attack happened. The young singer was airlifted to a hospital in Halifax where she died on Wednesday. In an instant, a young life and possibly brilliant career were over.

This should serve as an example to us all. Maybe we will live to be cranky old men and women. And maybe it will end tomorrow. No one knows.

Overshooting Again

Political Cartoon is by Mike Keefe in The Denver Post.

Tolerance

From the hilarious blog Pundit Kitchen.

U.S. Violating International Law

The United States has a new weapon in its arsenal -- unmanned flying drones that can be armed with missles or bombs and be used as an attack weapon. This is an excellent weapon that can be effective without endangering the lives of any pilots or soldiers. But it looks like the U.S. may be misusing this weapon and violating international law.

Since last August, these drones have been responsible for killing around 600 people in Pakistan. The problem is that many, if not most, of these people have been innocent civilians. United Nations human rights investigator Philip Alston wants the United States to legally justify the use of the attack drones in civilian areas.

Alston says, "My concern is that these drones, these Predators, are being operated in a framework which may well violate international humanitarian law and international human rights law. The onus is really on the government of the United States to reveal more about the ways in which it makes sure that arbitrary executions, extrajudicial executions are not in fact being carried out through the use of these weapons."

The United States has tried to use as justification the fact that they are in an "armed conflict". But that excuse just won't fly for a couple of reasons. First, we are attacking Pakistan, and we are not in a war or "armed conflict" with that country. Second, attacking a known civilian area to get a few insurgents who may be hiding among innocent civilians is a war crime. It is the same type of war crime the Israelis are accused of committing in Gaza.

The drones are a good weapon, and can effectively be used against eemy troops in a battle zone. But it should never be used in areas where there are civilian noncombatants. This is no different than spraying a crowd of innocent people with machine gun fire, because we believe a criminal may be hiding in the crowd.

The United States must stop using these drone in this way. It is both immoral and illegal.

Red-Light Cameras

Political Cartoon is by Jeff Parker in Florida Today.

eBay Bans Terrorist Auction

I have never bought or sold anything on eBay. I didn't have anything against them. It's just not how I like to make my purchases. But I have to admit, my estimation of the site has gone way up since their refusal to host an auction for terrorist-murderer Scott Roeder's defense.

As you know, Roeder (pictured) is the anti-abortion nut that murdered Dr. George Tiller in his church. Roeder is one of those violent people that believes if you don't agree with him, he has the right to commit a violent terrorist act (up to and including murder). He is now sitting in jail awaiting trial.

When he committed the murder, the anti-abortion movement was quick to distance themselves from his actions. I think most of us knew that wasn't really how they felt, and now they are beginning to show their true colors.

The anti-abortion terrorists decided to raise money for Roeder's defense -- they want him to claim it was a justifiable homicide. They decided to help raise the money by holding an auction on eBay. Among the items to be auctioned were a cookbook written by a woman in jail for arson on a clinic, some drawings done and autographed by Roeder and an Army of God manuel on how to shut down clinics providing abortions.

Dr. Tiller's widow and family were naturally horrified at the prospect of this macabre auction. They wrote to eBay saying, "These materials contain hate messages, glorify violence against abortion doctors who provide constitutionally protected medical services, and instruct on means of violence, including bombing of abortion clinics. We urge you to deny access to the resources of eBay for this reprehensible and vile 'auction'."

eBay must have already been disturbed by the prospect of the auction, because they banned the auction on the same day of the Tiller family's request. They said, "Based on the details we know about the anticipated listings, we believe these would violate our policy regarding offensive materials. eBay will not permit the items in question to be posted to the eBay site, and they will be removed if they are posted."

Of course, the anti-abortion terrorists are upset with eBay's decision. Regina Dinwiddie, a supporter of Roeder, had the gall to say, "They're not only chilling the first amendment of the Constitution, they're raping the whole Constitution." That's a ludicrous statement.

No one is denying these sick people the right to say whatever they want in defense of their murdering cohort. But there is nothing in the Constitution that says eBay must help them spread their hateful message. eBay is a private entity, and can do as they please.

I applaud eBay's decision to come down on the side of common decency and ban this auction.

Deadly Merry-Go-Round

Political Cartoon is by Mike Keefe in The Denver Post.

Cheney To Endorse Hutchison

Unbelievably, there are still those who believe the Republican primary race for governor is between a far right-winger (Rick Perry) and a moderately right-winger (Kay Bailey Hutchison). This is just not true. Hutchison is about as moderate as a "teabagger" on methamphetamines.

Both of these candidates are on a dead run to the right to convince the racist right-wing base of the Texas Republican Party that they are truly the nuttiest right-winger of all. For a while, it looked like Rick Perry might be winning that race. After all, he had captured the endorsement of Sarah Palin -- the accepted queen of the unthinking right-wing nutjobs.

But Hutchison is not about to let him win that race without a down-and-dirty fight. She has trumped his Palin endorsement with an even scarier endorsement of her own. She has trumped stupidity with downright evil. Her endorsement is from the king of the neocons and the emperor of all that is wrong with America -- Dick Cheney.

Yesterday, the Hutchison campaign announced that the evil overlord Cheney will appear at a Hutchison fundraiser on November 17th in Houston, and announce that he is supporting Hutchison in her run for governor of Texas.

This should end once-and-for-all the fairy tale that there is any kind of moderate Republican running for the Texas governorship in the 2010 election.

Romance Today

Political Cartoon is by Cameron (Cam) Cardow in The Ottawa Citizen.

That Would Be Most Facts!

Found at the excellent blog What Would Jack Do?

Earning Trust

From the excellent blog What Would Jack Do?

America Split On Afghanistan

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that the American people are split down the middle on supporting the war in Afghanistan. The poll was conducted on October 22-25 by Democrat Peter D. Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, and has a statistical error of 3.1 points. Here are the polls findings about Afghanistan:

47% support increasing the troop level

43% oppose increasing the troop level

58% support delaying a decision until after Afghanistan's presidential runoff and the political situation there becomes clearer

55% could accept sending 10,000 more troops

43% could accept sending 40,000 more troops

45% favor withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan

My question is, why does anyone think sending more troops will accomplish anything at all, let alone a victory, in Afghanistan? Didn't the Soviets try that with little or no success? Why should we think we would be more successful than they were?

The truth is the Taliban has enough support and enough hiding places (many of them in Pakistan) to prolong this war for years. The only number in the above poll that I can see getting larger is the 45% who say we should withdraw our troops. With each year that passes with no real progress, the number of people who realize we have gotten ourselves into a no-win Vietnam-like situation will grow.

We could put another 100,000 troops into Afghanistan, and it would not create a situation where we could win that war. The Taliban (and al Queda) would simply go to ground and do more guerilla operations, accomplishing a small but steady death toll of American soldiers. Then as we withdraw troops, they would come out of there holes and fight larger operations until they take over again.

Years ago, I supported the Bush administration invasion of Afghanistan (although I always opposed our adventure in Iraq). I was wrong about Afghanistan, and I'm ashamed of my former opinion. I thought we could go in and capture or kill al-Queda, and then get out. I had no idea Bush would half do the job, then invade Iraq, and then try to engage in "nation-building" in both countries -- a concept that has been an utter failure.

We needed to capture al-Queda and bring them to justice, but we didn't do that. We didn't need to engage in nation-building, and we're still trying to do that (poorly). Whether we want to admit it or not, we have failed miserably in both countries. Continuing will only cause the deaths of more American soldiers.

Let's bring the soldiers home now.