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Opposition To The Individual Mandate Is Decreasing & Support For A Single-Payer System Is Growing

When the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) first became law, there was a lot of opposition to it. But that opposition wasn't to the entire law. Most people liked a lot of the changes mandated by Obamacare. The part of the law most disliked was the individual requirement to buy health insurance (without which Obamacare could not succeed). I think there was a great fear among many Americans (fueled by Republican lies) that they would be forced to buy insurance that they could not afford.

But it was never a part of Obamacare to force people into a financial hardship by making them buy insurance. The law contained some fairly generous subsidies for consumers to prevent exposing them to a financial hardship. Now, as millions of people sign up for that insurance (over 3 million at the end of January have bought private insurance and millions more are now receiving Medicaid), people are beginning to realize there was nothing to fear. They are getting better insurance for a cheaper price, and those who need it are getting government help to pay for the insurance.

And as the Obamacare insurance sign-ups continue to grow, the people are starting to realize that the Republicans were lying to them (and the president was telling them the truth) -- and their opposition to the individual mandate is falling. Back in November of 2011that opposition was a whopping 69%. And even as late as December of 2013 a clear majority (58%) opposed the individual mandate. But now that number has fallen to only 46%. For the first time, less than half of the public opposes the individual mandate -- and that number will continue to fall as the number of insurance purchasers grows. What the Republicans feared the most is actually happening -- the public is starting to accept Obamacare (all of it) as a good improvement over the old system.

But while Obamacare is being accepted and people see it has made some needed changes, something else is also happening. More people are starting to realize that Obamacare didn't solve all of the nation's health care problems, and that more change is needed. The support for a government-run single-payer health care system is growing -- something like a Medicare for everyone system. People are realizing that Medicare has been a huge success in covering all American seniors, and they are starting to wonder why that same kind of system wouldn't work to cover all Americans with decent insurance.

When Obamacare was being debated and discussed in Congress, only about 25% to 30% of the public supported a government-run single-payer health care system. That has now grown to about 40% (and the opposition to it has shrunk to less than half of the public). More Americans are starting to realize that kind of program has advantages (more coverage, less overhead, less of a billing nightmare for doctors and hospitals, and less cost for the nation -- as can be seen by other nations who use it), and fewer now see it as the "socialist nightmare" the Republicans have tried to paint it as.

These charts were drawn from a recent Rasmussen Poll (conducted on February 22nd and 23rd of 1,000 likely voters nationwide, with a 3 point margin of error).

Minimum Wage

Political Cartoon is by Pat Bagley in the Salt Lake Tribune.

Why Texas Republicans Pander To The Teabaggers

If you've been paying attention to politics, then you probably know that there are no moderates among Texas Republican elected officials. Whether they represent a rural, suburban, or urban district, all of them campaign to and vote to please the state's ultra-right-wingers. Why is this true? In such a large state (both in size and population) one might expect there would be an elected moderate somewhere, but there isn't.

The chart above gives us a big clue as to why it is true. That chart was made from information in the latest University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll (conducted between February 7th and 17th of 1200 randomly chosen Texas residents -- with a margin of error between 2.83 and 3.28 points). The poll asked Texans who they would vote for in their House District if the teabaggers formed a political party of their own.

The outcome of the teabaggers forming their own political party scares the hell out of Texas Republicans. As the chart shows, Republicans would lose as many as half of their members -- and that would be disastrous for them. The Democrats would keep their 37%, and the Independents would still be unsure of who to vote for (since they usually wait to see who is running) -- but the Republicans would drop down to only about 21%, and an equal number of 21% would go to the new teabagger party.

This makes it clear why the Republican Party (and elected officials) in Texas cater so much to the teabaggers -- because they make up around half of all Texas Republicans, and no Republican could get elected with teabagger support. And with the demographic changes coming to Texas, this puts the state's Republican Party between a rock and a hard place.

It may not come in time for this election (and maybe not even the next), but there is a demographic change happening in Texas -- a change that will present a huge challenge for the "white's only" state Republican Party. The white segment of the state's voting population is shrinking, while the minority segment is growing (especially Hispanics, who are by far the fastest growing segment of the state's population). The school's already have a minority population of over 50%, and a few year's down the road  the same will be true of the state's general population (and voting population).

The Republican Party needs to be starting now to moderate their policies toward immigrants and minorities -- policies that have them losing 90% of the Black vote, and about 75% of the Hispanic and Asian vote. If those policies are not moderated and those percentages persist, Texas Republicans will be in serious trouble. But they can't moderate those policies without angering the teabaggers (and chasing those bigots into a new party of their own) -- which could be equally as devastating for the Republicans.

What will the Republicans do? Probably nothing -- at least they'll do nothing until the demographic tide and the progressive tide (with the younger generation being more tolerant of progressive change) become so overwhelming that it threatens their very existence as a party.

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Control of the Texas Republican Party by the teabaggers can also be seen in the preferences Texas Republicans have for a presidential candidate in 2016. That same UT/TT Poll showed:

Apology ?

Political Cartoon is by Mark Streeter in the Savannah Morning News.

Poll Numbers As The Texas Senate Primary Approaches

Last week the ultra-right-wing Human Events publication released a poll on the senate race in the Texas Republican Primary. That poll showed incumbent John Cornyn with 43%, Steve Stockman with 28%, and unsure voters at 29%. They concluded that the poll showed Stockman was gaining on Cornyn -- and since Cornyn didn't have 50%, there was a chance he could lose.

I said at the time that it sounded like a Stockman supporter trying to put the best spin possible on a bad poll, and I went on to say I thought Cornyn would easily win the Republican Primary. Now a new poll (and a much more bipartisan poll) has been released. It is the University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll (taken between February 7th and 17th of 543 Republicans (with a margin of error between 4.21 and 5.37 points) and 381 Democrats (with a margin of error of between 5.02 and 6.06 points).

The UT/TT Poll shows Cornyn is in a much more commanding position, garnering about 60% support to only 16% for Stockman. I believe that is probably what will happen on primary day (March 4th). The Texas Republican Party is ruled by teabagger elements, but they are not really that unhappy with Cornyn. They know he has one of the most right-wing voting records of anyone in the U.S. Senate.

I would like to see Cornyn defeated next November, and that would be a lot easier to do if Stockman somehow became the candidate because he's a total nut-job (and would scare the hell out of a lot of Independents). But Cornyn will win his primary, and that makes it much more important that the Democrats nominate a good candidate -- a progressive that offers a real alternative to the voters. And that's why the poll of the Democratic candidates worries me quite a bit.

Why does this worry me? because the UT/TT Poll shows Kesha Rogers leading by a fairly significant margin. There are four true Democrats in the race (ranging from progressive to blue dog) -- but Kesha Rogers is not one of them. She is a follower of Lyndon LaRouche, who believes President Obama should be impeached and the Queen of England is the head of an international drug cartel (among other nutty beliefs). She is even nuttier than Steve Stockman.

I sincerely hope this poll is wrong, and just shows an ignorance of who the candidates are. Even if Rogers were to win the primary, I could never support or vote for her -- and I don't believe the state party apparatus would provide any support for her either. She would just be a real embarrassment for the Democratic ticket. I urge all Democrats to vote for the candidate of your choice -- any of the other four candidates (my personal choice is Maxey Scherr). But please don't vote for Kesha Rogers. It will be difficult enough for Democrats to win in November without this albatross around their necks.

Bear Hug

Political Cartoon is by Bill Day at cagle.com.

Jimmy

Banning Abortion Won't Stop it

Arizona Legislators Try Again To Legalize Bigotry

There was a time in this country when signs like the one to the left were commonplace, even in many states outside of the Deep South. It was a blatant bigotry, and fortunately it was finally outlawed across the country by the Civil Rights Act.

But bigots are a persistent lot, and they feel the need to have some group to discriminate against, and this is particularly true of Arizona fundamentalist Republicans. The Republican-dominated government in that state has already passed a law discriminating against Hispanics -- the infamous SB-1070. Most of that law was declared unconstitutional, but that hasn't stopped the GOP legislators from trying to legalize bigotry in their state (to satisfy the teabagger fundamentalist bigots in their party base). Only this time, they shifted their focus from Hispanics to the LGBT community -- and they tried to cover that bigotry with religion in an attempt to survive any court challenge.

This time the bill is SB-1062, and it gives "any individual, association, partnership, corporation, church, religious assembly or institution, or other business organization" the right to refuse to serve any customer on religious grounds. The law is aimed at lesbians and gays, and would protect businesses that refuse to serve the LGBT community a legal defense if they are sued for denying that service. The new bill would protect the business owners from being sued (even by the government) as long as they could establish the following:

1. That the person's action or refusal to act is motivated by a religious belief.
2. That the person's religious belief is sincerely held.
3. That the state action substantially burdens the exercise of the person's religious beliefs.

In short, this bill is an attempt to give bigots a way to get around anti-discrimination laws by giving them the right to claim such laws violate their right to freedom of religion -- the idea being that having to serve everyone would violate some of the person's religious principles.

The bill is supposedly aimed at letting businesses refuse service to the LGBT community, and that is the way it is being reported by the media. But as it is written, the bill could open the door to other kinds of discrimination. I have read the bill (and you can do so at this link), and it does not restrict itself to businesses wishing to deny service to the LGBT community.

The bill would undoubtably be used to let businesses discriminate against the LGBT community (and that by itself would be wrong), but it also would let businesses use religion as an excuse for other kinds of discrimination. It is possible that signs like the one above would again appear in our communities (since racism is still a problem in this country, along with many other kinds of bigotry).

It hasn't been very long at all in this country since people tried to use religion as an excuse to refuse service to Blacks (or other racial and ethnic minorities). Once the right to discriminate against the LGBT community has been established by this new bill, who is to say it won't be used by bigots to cover other kinds of bigotry. After all, it's not hard to find a biblical verse to justify nearly anything.

This is a bad bill, and it should never become law -- and if it does it should be declared unconstitutional by federal courts. The United States is based on the principle of equality under the law -- and writing discrimination into the legal code (even on a state level) is anti-democratic and anti-American.

I support the First Amendment right of freedom of religion (which includes the right to be free from religion). But anti-discrimination laws do not violate anyone's right to freely follow their religion. They can still believe, worship, and live as they please while not discriminating against anyone in a commercial business setting. Bigotry is just wrong -- even when it comes wrapped in a Bible (or Koran, or any other religious text).

Progress ?

Political Cartoon is by Rob Rogers in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Wall Street Is Betting Obamacare Will Succeed

The Republicans are still talking about repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and they are still telling Americans that Obamacare can't succeed -- that it is guaranteed to fail. But while some teabaggers are believing those GOP claims, Wall Street is not (which is rather strange since the only constituency the GOP cares about are the financial institutions and corporations on Wall Street). This is clearly shown in the chart above (from Bloomberg Businessweek).

Online broker Motif Investing decided to test the market on Obamacare. They put together two packages of investments -- one that would benefit from the success of Obamacare, and another that would benefit from the repeal or failure of Obamacare. Here is how Bloomberg Businessweek describes the opposing funds:

The Obamacare motif is made up of hospitals, generic-drug makers, pharmacy-benefit managers, and companies specializing in electronic medical records, all of which stand to gain from the Affordable Care Act’s emphasis on cost control and its guarantee of payment. “Before the law, 30 percent of hospitals’ revenue was unbilled because you could walk into an ER and not pay,” Walia says. “They’re now paid by the U.S. government.” The Obamacare motif is up 46.9 percent in the past year, doubling the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index (up 22.8 percent).

Repeal Obamacare is composed of companies that would benefit from the law’s demise, mainly medical device manufacturers, which the ACA saddles with a 2.3 percent excise tax; assisted-living and home health-care providers, which will suffer from reduced Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates; and medical diagnostics equipment and services providers, which may encounter reduced demand as a result of the law’s efforts to curb unnecessary testing. The repeal Obamacare motif has risen just 13.8 percent in the past year.

Note that the investors on Wall Street are investing in the fund that would benefit from Obamacare's success by a large margin. In fact, the fund betting on the success of Obamacare not only outperforms the fund betting against Obamacare, it also outperformed the return of the S&P 500. Obviously, most of the Wall Street investors are not listening to the Republican rhetoric. They know Obamacare can't be repealed for at least two more years, and after seeing the millions that are signing up for insurance under Obamacare, they also know that by then Obamacare will be a fait accompli.

Obamacare is here to stay, and the Republicans know it. They are just sounding off now to play to their teabagger base.

Executive Orders

Political Cartoon is by Clay Bennett in the Chattanooga Times Free Press.