Saturday, December 07, 2019
Official Unemployment Rate For November Is 3.5%
The Labor Department has released it official statistics for the month of November. The economy produced a fairly healthy 266,000 new jobs for the month. That was substantially more than the 40,000 rise in the number of civilian workers in the nation's workforce, so the official unemployment rate dropped back down to 3.5%.
Here are the relevant statistics for November:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORKFORCE:
164,404,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
5,811,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
3.5%
DEMOGRAPHICS OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
Adult men...............3.2%
Adult women...............3.2%
Teens (16-19)...............12.0%
White...............3.2%
Black...............5.5%
Asian...............2.6%
Hispanic...............4.2%
Less than HS diploma...............5.3%
HS graduate...............3.7%
Some college...............2.9%
Bachelor's degree or more...............2.0%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED UNEMPLOYED (no longer counted):
1,246,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (official + marginally-attached):
7,057,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.29%
Is The Economy Better? A Lot Of Voters Say No!
Donald Trump likes to brag about the economy, and take credit for it. is the economy as great as he claims? It is for the rich, but this poll (the Center for American Progress Poll done October 10th through 15th of a national sample of 2,000 registered voters) shows that is not true for all Americans.
Note that only 39% say the economy has improved under Trump, while 33% say it has gotten worse and 25% have seen no change. Even worse, 52% of Americans have faced a serious economic problem over the last year.
The Trump/Republican tax bill was supposed to help workers and the middle class, but it did not do that. Only 17% said they paid less in taxes, while 27% said they paid more. About 46% said they paid the same as before the tax bill.
The sad truth is that Trump's efforts have been great for the rich and corporations, but not helped most Americans. Too many Americans continue to struggle economically as their wages remain low (and continue to be chipped away by inflation).
The charts below, from the same survey, show some interesting views of the voters.
Why Does Donald Trump Love Tariffs?
Economist Paul Krugman (pictured) has an answer. Here is what he says about why Trump loves tariffs.
Almost exactly one year has passed since Donald Trump declared, “I am a Tariff Man.” Uncharacteristically, he was telling the truth.
At this point I’ve lost count of how many times markets have rallied in the belief that Trump was winding down his trade war, only to face announcements that a much-anticipated deal wasn’t happening or that tariffs were being slapped on a new set of products or countries. Over the past week it happened again: Markets bet on an outbreak of trade peace between the U.S. and China, only to get body slammed by Trump’s declaration that there might be no deal before the election and by his new tariffs on Brazil and Argentina.
So Trump really is a Tariff Man. But why? After all, the results of his trade war have been consistently bad, both economically and politically.
I’ll offer an answer shortly. First, however, let’s talk about what the Trump trade war has actually accomplished.
A peculiar aspect of the Trump economy is that while overall growth has been solid, the areas of weakness have come precisely in those things Trump tried to stimulate.
Remember, Trump’s only major legislative accomplishment was a huge tax cut for corporations that was supposed to lead to a surge in investment. Instead, corporations pocketed the money, and business investment has been falling.
At the same time, his trade war was supposed to shrink the trade deficit and revive U.S. manufacturing. But the trade deficit has widened, and manufacturing output is shrinking.
The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out. The most commonly given explanation for these bad results is that Trumpian tariff policy is creating a lot of uncertainty, which is giving businesses a strong incentive to postpone any plans they might have for building new factories and adding jobs.
It’s important to realize that Trumpian protectionism wasn’t a response to a groundswell of public opinion. As best as I can tell from the endless series of interviews with white guys in diners — who are, we all know, the only Americans who matter — these voters are driven more by animosity toward immigrants and the sense that snooty liberals look down on them than by trade policy.
And public opinion seems to have become far less protectionist even as Trump has raised tariffs, with the percentage of Americans saying that free trade agreements are a good thing as high as it’s ever been.
So Trump’s trade war is losing, not gaining, support. And one recent analysis finds that it was a factor hurting Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for a significant number of lost congressional seats.
Nevertheless, Trump persists. Why?
One answer is that Trump has long had a fixation on the idea that tariffs are the answer to America’s problems, and he’s not the kind of man who reconsiders his prejudices in the light of evidence. But there’s also something else: U.S. trade law offers Trump more freedom of action — more ability to do whatever he wants — than any other policy area.
The basic story is that long ago — in fact, in the aftermath of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 — Congress deliberately limited its own role in trade policy. Instead, it gave the president the power to negotiate trade deals with other countries, which would then face up-or-down votes without amendments.
It was always clear, however, that this system needed some flexibility to respond to events. So the executive branch was given the power to impose temporary tariffs under certain conditions: import surges, threats to national security, unfair practices by foreign governments. The idea was that nonpartisan experts would determine whether and when these conditions existed, and the president would then decide whether to act.
This system worked well for many years. It turned out, however, to be extremely vulnerable to someone like Trump, for whom everything is partisan and expertise is a four-letter word. Trump’s tariff justifications have often been self-evidently absurd — seriously, who imagines that imports of Canadian steel threaten U.S. national security? But there’s no obvious way to stop him from imposing tariffs whenever he feels like it.
And there’s also no obvious way to stop his officials from granting individual businesses tariff exemptions, supposedly based on economic criteria but in fact as a reward for political support. Tariff policy isn’t the only arena in which Trump can practice crony capitalism — federal contracting is looking increasingly scandalous— but tariffs are especially ripe for exploitation.
So that’s why Trump is a Tariff Man: Tariffs let him exercise unconstrained power, rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. Anyone imagining that he’s going to change his ways and start behaving responsibly is living in a fantasy world.
Friday, December 06, 2019
This Is The Problem That Medicare-For-All Has
All of the charts in this post are from a recent Gallup Poll. That poll was done between November 1st and 14th of a national sample of 1,015 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
The top chart shows that a clear majority of Americans (54%) think it is the government's responsibility to see that all Americans are covered with decent health insurance. That includes 80% of Democrats, 56% of Independents, and 21% of Republicans.
That might sound to some like the public is ready for a single-payer, government-run insurance system (like Medicare For All). But that is not the case.
Consider the charts below. While Americans want the government to insure all Americans have decent health coverage, they are not ready to give up on the private insurance system. A majority (54%) say they want to stick with the private insurance system (including 31% of Democrats, 49% of Independents, and 84% of Republicans), while only 42% want to move to a government-run system.
I remain convinced that a Medicare For All system would be the best -- covering all Americans, and negotiating medical and drug costs. But it is pretty clear that not enough of the public believes that.
I do think the public supports creating a public option to cover those who can't afford private insurance (and would be available for anyone to buy into). That needs to be done now. Hopefully, once people realize how well that works (just like current Medicare does), it will be easier to move then to Medicare For All.
Elizabeth Warren has it right. A public option won't solve all our problems, but it is a necessary step before we can go further. We can't go further until a significant portion of Americans agree.
Public Thinks Trump Has Made The U.S. Less Respected
Donald Trump got a rude awakening when he attended the NATO conference. The other members are no longer kowtowing to him in the hope that he will more strongly support NATO. Some, like Macron, are openly disagreeing with Trump now. And worse, some are even mocking him. He cancelled a news conference and returned home early after learning of a video of some mocking him.
I wish it was just Trump that the world is now Laughlin at, but it's not. He has damaged the reputation of the United States -- and has caused most of the world to now have less respect for this country.
The American public knows this. A majority of 56% say Trump has made America less respected on the world stage, while only 23% (Trump's hardcore base) say he has made us more respected.
The chart above reflects the results of a new YouGov Poll -- done on December 4th of a national sample of 3,956 adults.
350 Mental Health Professionals Say Trump's "Deteriorating"
There are signs that Donald Trump is coming unglued over the prospect of his impeachment. The tweets and the lies are coming fast and furious -- and many mental health professionals believe this could pose a danger to the country.
About 350 psychiatrists and other mental health professionals have signed a petition and submitted it to Congress. Here is what they wrote in that petition:
We are among several mental health experts making ourselves available for consultation with Congress in accordance with our ethics guideline, which states: “Psychiatrists are encouraged to serve society by advising and consulting with the executive, legislative, and judiciary branches of the government.” We are also in keeping with the Goldwater principle that encourages psychiatrists to educate the public when asked about a public figure, so that we may improve the community and better public health. We appreciate the momentous task Congress has with the impeachment proceedings and present ourselves as recognized experts who can answer critical questions relating to mental health. We are among thousands of mental health professionals who have felt obligated to speak up because of the exceptional psychological dangers of this presidency. In medicine, safety supersedes all other concerns, and we are acting in accordance with our professional responsibility to society and the humanitarian goals of medicine.
We are speaking out at this time because we are convinced that, as the time of possible impeachment approaches, Donald Trump has the real potential to become ever more dangerous, a threat to the safety of our nation. We bear in mind that Donald Trump, as President, has the unfettered authority to launch nuclear weapons at any time for any reason. There is no formalized way of preventing this unless his order is disobeyed by the Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, who has been given the order to launch. Short of this calamity, there are many other dangers he can pose by the use, fueled by rage, of his assumed absolute executive authority, and by the loyalists who serve him.
There are many things we can say about the psychology of Donald Trump. He is remarkably transparent through his Twitter stream of comments, real-time video displays and newspaper accounts, past and present, as well as testimonies of persons who know or have known him. He has shown that his sense of worth is entirely dependent on the admiration from others, such as at the rallies of his base. Without this external affirmation, President Trump has revealed that he feels, deep down, like a loser, a failure, weak, dumb, fat, ugly, fake, “crooked”. We know this because these self-denigrating pictures of himself, President Trump projects onto others, whom he transforms into enemies, and compensates consciously by creating a grandiose image of himself as unique, a stable genius, entitled to special treatment, and better at everything than everyone else.
What makes Donald Trump so dangerous is the brittleness of his sense of worth. Any slight or criticism is experienced as a humiliation and degradation. To cope with the resultant hollow and empty feeling, he reacts with what is referred to as narcissistic rage. He is unable to take responsibility for any error, mistake, or failing. His default in that situation is to blame others and to attack the perceived source of his humiliation. These attacks of narcissistic rage can be brutal and destructive. A striking but not unusual example of his lack of caring and empathy is his policy of separating children from their parents at the Southern border. Additionally, he has made the reckless decision to allow an attack of our Kurdish allies, against all advice, shortly after announcement of the impeachment inquiry. These events are closely related and betray his extreme inability to tolerate any challenges against him.
We have come to the conclusion that there is an ethical obligation to warn of the danger that President Trump poses. We believe that there is a possibility of our stumbling into a war, should, for example, the adventurous Kim Jong-un have further flights of missiles over Japan or another nuclear test. President Trump’s need to demonstrate his strength as commander-in-chief and the praise that would come from taking strong actions could lead to a very unfortunate situation.
Impeachment is the ultimate rebuke of a president, which President Trump has intensely feared, at least since the appointment of the special counsel. Failing to monitor or to understand the psychological aspects, or discounting them, could lead to catastrophic outcomes. For these reasons, we implore Congress to take these danger signs seriously and to constrain his destructive impulses. We and many others are available to give important relevant recommendations as well as to educate the public so that we can maximize our collective safety.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)