Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Half Of The Public Say They Wouldn't Vote For Socialist
These numbers are from a newly released Gallup Poll -- done between June 2nd and 7th of a random national sample of 1,527 adults, and has a margin of error of 3 points.
It shows that a lot of past barriers preventing people from getting elected as president seem to have been overcome. Even two groups who experience a lot of discrimination -- atheists and muslims -- now have a significant majority who say they could vote for someone with that background. But there is one group that still has more people saying they wouldn't vote for them than saying they would -- socialists.
Around a hundred years of propaganda by right-wing capitalists is still having an effect on too many Americans. Half of the population (50%) would not vote for an admitted and open socialist, while only 47% say they could vote for a socialist. It seems that too many people still believe the right-wing lies about socialism (that it means communism and dictatorship). It's not true, but ingrained perceptions are hard to change.
There is some evidence that this could change. Note that 69% of young people (age 18 to 29) say they could vote for a socialist. But that is for the future. Right now the baby boomers rule the electoral roost (voting in much larger numbers than young people), and only 34% to 37% of them would vote for an admitted socialist.
This is something that Democrats need to keep in mind, because one of their candidates has run (and been elected) repeatedly as a socialist -- and if that candidate wins the nomination, you can bet the Republicans make sure every American knows that.
As a socialist myself, I wish it wasn't that way -- but it is. America hasn't grown up enough to accept socialism (unless it is disguised as something else). The United States has many socialist elements -- Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, free public education, food stamps, etc. -- but none of them could have been passed if they had worn the socialist label.
America is trending toward socialism, but the sad fact is, it's still not ready to vote for someone who wears the socialist label.
Presidential Preferences Of Texas Registered Voters
This is the first Texas survey done now that we generally know who the candidates for each party are going to be. It is the Texas Tribune / University of Texas Poll -- done between June 5th and 14th of 1200 registered Texas voters. The survey has a margin of error of 2.83 points (4.37 points for Republicans only, and 4.58 for Democrats only).
Ted Cruz finished in first in his home state with 20% -- 8 points better than Rick Perry, and 10 points better than Scott Walker. No other Republican got into double digits (including Jeb Bush, who got 7%). Cruz needed this, because he has not fared well in any of the other state's polls.
Hillary Clinton has the support of a majority of Democrats in Texas (53%) -- 38 points higher than second place finisher Bernie Sanders.
The poll also asked respondents whether they approved of the job the president and Congress are doing (see bottom chart). Even though Texas is still a very red state, and the president only got 35% approval, that is still 20 points higher than the 15% approval of the Republican-controlled Congress.
Democrats and Republicans are divided over the president, but no one likes the Congress.
"Decision Day" Is Imminent At The Supreme Court
June is the month when most Supreme Court decisions are announced, but we are still waiting for the two most newsworthy (and most anticipated) decisions -- on Obamacare and on same-sex marriage.
They will probably come soon though. The court has added a couple of days to their decision calendar. Now it is possible the decision in either case could be announced on Thursday (25th), Friday (26th), or Monday (29th). I think most court watchers expect one to be announced on Friday, and the other on Monday.
Monday, June 22, 2015
Bush Gets A Small Bump After Announcing He's In
This top chart is from an NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll -- taken between June 14th and 18th, with a margin of error of about 6.4 points.
The survey will release the support numbers for each candidate later today, but this question shows the candidates that GOP voters say they could or could not vote for. It shows a slightly higher percentage saying they could vote for Bush than in April.
But the most interesting thing about this survey is the negative support for three candidates. About 495 say they could not vote for Graham, 55% say they could not vote for Christie, and a whopping 66% say they could not vote for Trump. Unless they start turning this around real quick, these candidates are just wasting their time and money.
The charts below show the new national poll by the YouGov Poll -- done between June 13th and 15th of a random national sample of 1,000 adults, with about a 4 point margin of error. It also shows a small recovery by Bush -- but it's hard to call him the "leader", since he doesn't even get 15% support.
No real change among Democrats. Hillary Clinton still has a large lead among all Democrats and among liberals.
What If Obamacare Was Repealed ?
What would happen if it was repealed? The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) answers that question in a new report. Here's how that report is reported on Political Wire:
A new CBO report finds that repealing the Affordable Care Act would cost the U.S. government $137 billion over the next decade.
“The new report is the first federal assessment since the main provisions of the law took effect in 2014. It found that repealing the health-care law would increase deficits by $353 billion over 10 years. But after taking into account economic factors, including slightly larger workforce participation that would result from repealing the law, that amount would fall to $137 billion.”
“The analysis also concluded that repealing the health-care law would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 19 million in 2016.”
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