Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Tuesday, August 27, 2019
New Poll Has Warren, Sanders, & Biden In A Virtual Tie
These charts show the results of the new Monmouth University Poll -- done between August 16th and 20th of a national sample of 298 Democratic/ Independent registered voters, with a 5.7 point margin of error.
It shows Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Joe Biden in a virtual tie for first place, with Kamala Harris finishing fourth about 11 points behind. No one else was able to register more than 4% support.
Let me interject a word of caution. The Monmouth University Poll is a respected and bipartisan poll. But the sample they used in this poll was very small for a national poll -- only 298 registered voters. That small sample gives the poll a large margin of error -- about 5.7 points.
That means that while the top three could be tied, there could also be a 10 or 11 point difference between one or more of them. It will be interesting to see what some other polls, with larger samples, have to say in the next few days.
The chart below, from the same poll, shows the demographic breakdown in support for Warren, Sanders, and Biden.
Two Republicans Will Challenge Trump In The Primaries
(The cartoon image above is by Lalo Alcaraz.)
Donald Trump will have two opponents in the primaries next year -- a moderate and a conservative. Former Massachusetts governor William Weld (a moderate) announced he is running for president on the Republican ticket. Joining him in the race against a Trump re-nomination is former Illinois representative Joe Walsh (a conservative).
Now it may sound strange that Trump has drawn opponents from both wings of the Republican Party, but it shouldn't. Trump is neither a moderate or a conservative. He's an opportunist with no real political views. Trump is only interested in what he perceives as being good for him -- whatever satisfies his narcissism, whatever benefits him monetarily, and whatever benefits him electorally.
If an issue doesn't benefit him personally, Trump has no interest in it. And if an issue could benefit him, he doesn't care when it rests on the political spectrum, he will support it. As a young man, Trump was a Democrat (except for his racial views). Now he is a Republican. Neither had anything to do with political issues, but were just what he thought would benefit him at the time.
One might point to Trump's only accomplishment (his tax cuts). Wasn't that a conservative issue? It used to be. The Republican Party has preached tax cuts (especially for the rich). But for Trump, it was just a way to put more dollars into his bank account. You can bet if those cuts didn't mostly benefit the corporations and the rich, he would not have supported them.
Neither Weld not Walsh has a snowball's chance in hell of being nominated. They are ghosts of the Republican past -- a past where the Republican Party actually had political views. That party is dead. The current Republican Party has become nothing more than a cult of personality. Political views are unimportant. The only important thing to Republicans today is whatever Donald Trump wants -- and whatever that is (wherever it falls on the political spectrum), they will find a way to justify it.
Trump will win the GOP nomination. There's no doubt of that, because the GOP is no longer a party of principles. I just found it interesting that he has drawn opponents from both sides of the political spectrum.
Most Say Race Relations Have Gotten Worse Under Trump
The charts above are from the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll -- done between August 10th and 14th of a national sample of 1,000 adults, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
I think the charts speak for themselves.
Can A Democratic President Fix The Mess Trump Created?
The idea that many Democrats (and Independents) have is that although Donald Trump has created a real mess and seriously damaged this country's reputation, replacing him with a Democrat in 2021 could quickly remedy the situation. That may be too optimistic, considering the damage than has been done. It may take many years to fix Trump's disastrous actions, if it can be done at all.
The following is part of a sobering assessment by Nahal Toosi at Politico.com:
Democrats running to replace Donald Trump are vowing to wipe away much of the president’s foreign policy legacy.
It might already be too late.
Through executive orders, regulatory changes, political maneuvers and sometimes mere neglect, Trump has overseen major, possibly permanent, shifts in U.S. foreign policy. . . .
Thanks to Trump, current and former officials say, Palestinians may never get a state of their own, Iran may shun diplomacy with Washington for the foreseeable future and U.S. allies may forever be reluctant to trust their American counterparts. Relations with China, the effects of climate change and ending nuclear proliferation are among other challenges a future president may find harder to tackle in a post-Trump world.
It doesn’t help that U.S. foreign policy is increasingly falling prey to partisan fighting in Washington. A Democratic president focused on reversing Trump’s legacy — the same way Trump has tried to erase Barack Obama's legacy — runs the risk of feeding the perception that U.S. foreign policy will not remain stable over time.
“There is a hunger for the U.S. to get back to its traditional role on the world stage,” said Jeff Prescott, a former senior National Security Council official in the Obama administration. “But after Trump, many of our international partners are going to step back and ask whether signing up with us is going to be a long-term proposition.” . . .
In particular, Trump’s approach to two sensitive topics — Iran and Israel — could have lasting effects.
On Iran, Trump has chilled slowly warming relations between the two countries.
It started with Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of a nuclear deal with Iran. Then he reimposed the sanctions lifted under the deal and heaped on new ones.
While most of the Democrats running for president have promised to rejoin the nuclear deal, which was negotiated under President Barack Obama, they must overcome an array of logistical and political hurdles, including Iran’s own steps to violate the deal in light of Trump’s sanctions. . . .
Another area where Trump has perhaps permanently changed the landscape is the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Nearly every step Trump has taken in the area has pleased Israel and angered the Palestinians. He ended U.S. financial aid to the Palestinians, closed their office in Washington and recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, despite the Palestinians’ competing claims to the city. In response, the Palestinians have essentially cut off communication with Trump officials.
The Trump administration is also at work on a peace proposal for the Israelis and Palestinians, but the president’s aides have indicated that the plan will not support a separate Palestinian state.
A Democratic successor may recommit the U.S. to a two-state solution — long the American government's preferred approach — and even rebuild some of the bridges to the Palestinians that Trump has torched. Foreign policy veterans say it may be too late, though. Under Trump, an emboldened Israel already has made moves some predict will lead it to annex the West Bank, territory long claimed by the Palestinians. . . .
A Democratic Trump successor will likely rejoin the Paris agreement to combat climate change, which Trump quit during his first year in office. Still, critics say the lost time under Trump — time without U.S. global leadership on the issue — could have caused irreparable damage to the global ecosystem.
A Democratic president could also take office with a new global nuclear arms race under way.
That’s what some fear will result from Trump’s decision to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the possibility he might let another pact, known as New START, lapse. In response, Russia, China and the U.S. have all shown signs that they are already building up their missile arsenals. . . .
The biggest challenge a successor to Trump might face is rebuilding trust with the rest of the world. Already, some foreign leaders have looked to bolster their tieswith Russia and China as the United States, under Trump, has appeared a less reliable global power.
“Other countries have noticed that America can tear things down and blow things up easily, but it has a hard time sealing the deal and getting things done,” said Brian Katulis, a foreign policy analyst with the left-leaning Center for American Progress. “As a result, many countries are moving to assert their own interests with less regard for America’s views.”
Monday, August 26, 2019
Favorable And Unfavorable Ratings Of Leading Candidates
These charts reflect the results of the latest Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 17th and 20th of a national sample of 1,500 adults (including 1,111 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 2.6 points, and for registered voters is 3 points.
The survey did not ask who the respondents would support or who they would vote for. They just asked about likability -- whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates.
Donald Trump had the highest unfavorable ratings -- 52% among adults and 54% among registered voters. He also had the highest favorable rating among adults.
Elizabeth Warren had the highest favorable rating among registered voters at 45%, and she was the only candidate that did not score higher on unfavorability than favorability. She was even on both with adults (39%), and had a 3 point edge among registered voters (45% to 42%).
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