The new Quinnipiac University Poll (done between June 20th and 29th of 761 likely Democratic caucus-goers, with a 3.6 point margin of error) has some good news for supporters of Bernie Sanders. While Clinton still has majority support of 52%, Sanders has picked up some ground and now stands at 33% support. He seems to be making inroads with liberals in the state, and has a 4 point lead among them.
But he still doesn't seem to be picking up more national support. The bottom chart is from RealClearPolitics, and shows the last six national polls taken among Democrats. All of those polls (which were all released in June) show Clinton with a huge lead, and Sanders struggling to get beyond 15%.
I still think Sanders only chance to break through nationally is to do exceptionally well in the debates with Clinton. We'll just have to see if he can pick up ground there. Hillary is a pretty good debater.
I love Bernie Sanders and I will almost certainly vote for him in the primary. But he does come off as kind of a scold. Now maybe people are ready for that. I also think he is a far better politician than most people give him credit for. But I was surprised to see the 33%, because I've long assumed that his ceiling would be 25% just because people can't get beyond labels. Who knows? Economics is 90% of my interest in politics, so obviously, Sanders is my man. But I'd still be shocked if Clinton doesn't win the nomination.
ReplyDeleteI also love Bernie. I think he and Elizabeth Warren are the two best senators in Washington. But I don't think he could beat a Republican in November. That's why I'm supporting Hillary Clinton. She is a good candidate (and a progressive, in spite of what some think), and she can win. It's just too important to keep an extremist Republican from winning the White House.
ReplyDeleteI'll admit, the vilification of the word "socialism" does scare me. On the other hand, it's greatest power is with people who would never vote for a Democrat. In a recent poll (maybe this one), I saw that something like 77% of Sanders supporters also support Clinton. That's certainly true of me. I've got the whole "Date Sanders, marry Clinton" thing in my head.
DeleteI have to agree with you Ted
ReplyDelete