Friday, January 15, 2016
Two New Iowa Polls With Vastly Different Results Released
There have been two new polls released on the Democratic presidential race in Iowa. The first is the Des Moines Register / Bloomberg News Poll -- done between January 7th and 10th of a random sample of 503 likely Democratic voters, with a 4.4 point margin of error.
This poll shows Hillary Clinton with only a 2 point lead over Bernie Sanders (42% to 40%) -- well within the poll's margin of error. It shows Sanders leading among first-time caucus attendees, Independents, and those under age 45. Clinton leads among long-time caucus attendees, Democrats, those over age 45, and women.
The caucus winner will depend on which groups show up in larger numbers to the caucuses. Traditionally, the groups supporting Clinton are the more reliable caucus attendees. That may or may not hold true this year.
The second newly-released poll is the Gravis Marketing / One America Poll -- done on January 11th and 12th of a random sample of 461 Iowa Democrats, with a 3 point margin of error. The results of this poll is vastly different, showing Clinton with a 21 point lead over Sanders (57% to 36%).
Which poll is correct? They are too different for both to be correct. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle. We'll find out in another 17 days, when Iowans gather in caucus.