Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Two New Polls Disagree About Leading Democrat In Iowa



With the Iowa caucuses only a few days away now, two new polls have been released on the Democratic presidential race in that state.

The Fox News Poll was done between January 18th and 21st of a random sample of 423 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, and has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

The American Research Group Poll was done between January 21st and 24th of a random sample of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers, and has a margin of error of 5 points.

The Fox poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders by 6 points (slightly above the margin of error). The ARG poll shows Sanders leading Clinton by 3 points (which is well within the margin of error).

I still think Clinton has a small edge in Iowa -- but of course, the winner will be the one that is the most effective in getting their supporters to the caucuses. I doubt though that the Iowa winner, whoever it is, will win by a wide margin.

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A new national poll was also released on the Democratic race. It is the CNN / ORC Poll that was done between January 21st and 24th of a random national sample of 440 Democrats (and leaners), and has a margin of error of 4.5 points.

This polls shows Clinton still has a large 14 point lead nationally.


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