Democrats Will Like These Poll Numbers

There's no doubt that if the Democrats are going to be able to pass any legislation to create jobs and repair the Republican-destroyed economy, they are going to have to take back the House of Representatives. But that wouldn't be enough. They would also need a bigger advantage in the Senate -- to prevent the repeated filibusters by Republicans that block all the needed legislation.

And one of the senate seats the Democrats badly need to win back is the seat once occupied by Tex Kennedy -- a seat that is currently held by Republican Scott Brown. A few months ago, the political pundits figured Brown would be pretty easily re-elected, since he polled much better than all his possible opponents. But that was before the Republicans in Washington refused to approve Professor Elizabeth Warren of Harvard as the head of the newly -created Consumer Protection Bureau (because they are trying to protect their Wall Street buddies by trying to block that bureau from getting started).

It's starting to look like that was a mistake, because when it became apparent she couldn't be approved by the Senate Elizabeth Warren returned to Massachusetts and declared her candidacy for Brown's seat. Since that time, Warren has been steadily gaining on Brown in all the polls. A couple of weeks ago she pulled into a virtual tie in the race. Now, according to the newest University of Massachusetts/Boston Herald Poll, Warren has for the first time taken a significant lead over Brown. The latest results are:


Elizabeth Warren...............49%
Scott Brown...............42%

The poll was taken between December 1st and 6th, and included those who said they were leaning toward one or the other of the candidates. But even when the leaners are subtracted, Warren is still ahead -- with her having 46% and Brown having 41%. It looks like Massachusetts voters are ready to put another good progressive Democrat in Ted Kennedy's old seat.

And things are really starting to look good in the presidential race also. Democrats couldn't ask for a better Republican opponent to run against than Newt Gingrich -- the most ethically-challenged politician in America -- and it is looking more and more like he could actually become the nominee. He is now leading in three of the first four states that will pick delegates, and he's closing the gap in that fourth state. Following is the CNN/Time/ORC Poll taken between November 29th and December 6th in those four states:

IOWA (margin of error 5 points)
Newt Gingrich...............33%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Ron Paul...............17%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............7%
Rick Santorum...............5%
Jon Huntsman...............1%
None/No opinion...............7%

NEW HAMPSHIRE (margin of error 4.5 points)
Mitt Romney...............35%
Newt Gingrich...............26%
Ron Paul...............17%
Jon Huntsman...............8%
Michele Bachmann...............3%
Rick Perry...............2%
Rick Santorum...............2%
Someone else...............1%
None/No opinion...............7%

SOUTH CAROLINA (margin of error 4.5 points)
Newt Gingrich...............43%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Rick Perry...............8%
Michele Bachmann...............6%
Ron Paul...............6%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Jon Huntsman...............1%
No opinion...............11%

FLORIDA (margin of error 4.5 points)
Newt Gingrich...............48%
Mitt Romney...............25%
Ron Paul...............5%
Michele Bachmann...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............3%
Rick Perry...............3%
Rick Santorum...............1%
Someone else...............1%
None/No opinion...............10%

But it's still far too early for anyone to start celebrating, even though the Iowa caucuses are now less than a month away. That's because more than half of the respondents in these four polls said they still might change their minds. Here are the percentages of those in each state who said they might change their mind:

IOWA...............55%
NEW HAMPSHIRE...............48%
SOUTH CAROLINA...............55%
FLORIDA...............53%