It's Still Too early To Declare Romney The GOP Winner

In the last week or so, I've read several articles and blog posts that are now declaring Mitt Romney to be the eventual winner of the Republican presidential nomination process. They are deciding this must be true because of some recent events -- Gingrich's fall in the polls, Paul's wacky foreign policy and racial views, and the unviability of any of the other candidates (Perry, Bachmann, Santorum, Huntsman, and Roemer).

I'm not saying Romney won't be the winner after the primary season is over -- he might be. But I'm not ready to anoint him as the GOP nominee just yet. He is still polling in the low twenties nationwide and has yet to show he can get above that. In other words, he has yet to show he can convince enough of the party's teabagger base that he would make the best candidate. Until he can do that, he is only one of several candidates.

A lot of people, including myself, had thought the Gingrich slide in the polls would probably continue until he was out of contention in the race. If that had happened (and he was not replaced by another anti-Romney candidate), then Romney would be the odds-on favorite. But it now is starting to look like the Gingrich slide may be slowing, or even stopping (probably because the teabaggers still consider Romney to be a liberal flip-flopper and Gingrich is all they have right now).

The newest Gallup Poll numbers (a five-day rolling average done between December 20th and 26th) show Gingrich is still in the lead nationwide. It is only a 1 point lead, meaning Gingrich and Romney are now virtually tied, but it is a lead nonetheless. It also shows that the Gingrich "slide" now seems to have flattened out. Here are the current nationwide Gallup numbers:


Newt Gingrich...............25%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Ron Paul...............11%
Rick Perry...............8%
Michele Bachmann...............6%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

I am starting to think the field is now narrowing to a three-person race (although Perry has to money and the ego to stay in the race until Texas votes in early April). Those three are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich -- and it's beginning to look like each of them could win one of the first three primary states.

We are only one week away from the Iowa caucuses, where Ron Paul not only has a lead in the polls but also has the best organization. The chances are very good that Iowa will be a big win for Paul. Then the race goes to New Hampshire where Romney has a significant lead in the polls. It is likely that Romney claims his first win there. South Carolina is the third state to vote, and the probable winner there is Newt Gingrich.

That would give each of the three a win going into other states, and that would probably be good enough to keep their supporters from abandoning them, at least for a while. Gingrich is also the likely winner in Florida, while Romney will probably take Nevada and Michigan. Paul could do well in Virginia by getting the anti-Romney vote there, since only he and Romney will be on that ballot. If these results pan out, all three campaigns would be boosted and all three could stay in the race for the long haul -- maybe all the way to the convention.

All three of these candidates have distinct advantages that could serve them well. Romney has a massive amount of Wall Street money and the support of the establishment. Paul has a very good organization and the most die-hard supporters. Gingrich's advantage is that he is not Romney (or Paul).

Romney may be the eventual winner, but it is far too early to give him the crown right now. I still think this is a race he could lose -- especially if he cannot finally break through and win over some teabagger support.