Economy/Jobs - The Only Issues That Matter

As you can see from the above chart, most Americans are not happy with the way things are going in this country right now. That's not as low as when Bush left office (13%), but it certainly shows that most Americans are not happy. And what is it that Americans are not happy about? This same Gallup Poll showed that a significant majority of Americans (56%) say the most important issues facing the country are either the economy in general or unemployment. Here are the numbers:

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING THIS COUNTRY TODAY?
The economy (general)...............31%
Unemployment...............25%
Dissatisfaction with government...............12%
Federal budget deficit...............11%
Healthcare...............6%
Lack of money...............5%
Ethical/moral decline...............4%
Education...............4%

The third place issue, dissatisfaction with government, was not clearly defined in this poll since it didn't ask whether the dissatisfaction was with the White House & Senate Democrats or the House Republicans (or both). I suspect it is some of both. The fourth place issue could be lumped in with the first two, making those unhappy with the current economic situation of the country about 67%. Unless the economy shows a remarkable rebound in the next few months (which is unlikely), then this election will be decided by which candidate (Obama or Romney) has the best plan for the economy in the eyes of the voters.

So which person has the best plan according to the voters? We can expect that the members of each party will say their own candidate has the best plan (assuming Romney can solidify his base). That means the most important thing is what do the Independents think? Do they like Obama's or Romney's plan the best?

The ABC News/Washington Post Poll has tried to answer this question. They interviewed a random national sample of 1,007 voters between June 6th and 10th. The poll has a 3.5 point margin of error. And right now, the poll shows the Independents are not happy with the economic plan of either candidate. Here are the numbers for Independents:

OBAMA
positive...............38%
negative...............54%

ROMNEY
positive...............35%
negative...............47%

It looks like the Independents are not ready to jump on the economic bandwagon of either candidate right now. I would think if the Independents split, it would favor the Democrats since fewer people identify as Republican these days -- assuming both parties can get their members to the polls on election day. Here are the numbers for groups other than Independents (with the positive being the first number given and the negative being the second number):


GENERAL PUBLIC
Obama...............43% - 50%
Romney...............37% - 47%

DEMOCRATS
Obama...............76% - 20%
Romney...............20% - 65%

REPUBLICANS
Obama...............15% - 81%
Romney...............65% - 26%

LIBERALS
Obama...............66% - 30%
Romney...............18% - 69%

MODERATES
Obama...............48% - 46%
Romney...............37% - 47%

CONSERVATIVES
Obama...............26% - 68%
Romney...............53% - 34%

WHITES
Obama...............31% - 62%
Romney...............42% - 42%

BLACKS
Obama...............81% - 15%
Romney...............22% - 68%

LATINOS
Obama...............59% - 33%
Romney...............31% - 48%

$50,000 OR LESS
Obama...............44% - 48%
Romney...............35% - 47%

$50,000 TO $100,000
Obama...............41% - 54%
Romney...............45% - 43%

OVER $100,000
Obama...............42% - 54%
Romney...............40% - 52%