Saturday, August 31, 2024
Two More Polls Show Harris With A Lead
The chart above reflects the results of the USA Today / Suffolk University Poll -- done between August 25th and 28th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
The chart above shows the results of the Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between August 23rd and 27th of a nationwide sample of 1,611 likely voters, with a 2.4 point margin of error.
Trump Still Shows No Respect For Military Service
The following post is by Robert Reich:
What might otherwise be considered a minor error of judgment can blow up into a big issue in a political campaign when the error evokes a candidate’s deeper flaws.
Yesterday, the U.S. Army issued a stern rebuke to the Trump campaign over his visit on Monday to the Arlington National Cemetery, where Trump sought to score political points by marking the third anniversary of a deadly attack on U.S. troops in Afghanistan as American forces withdrew from the country. Thirteen American service members were killed in the attack at Kabul airport’s Abbey Gate.
A video of the visit posted by the Trump campaign on TikTok shows Trump visiting grave sites, with audio of him blasting Biden’s “disaster” of the Afghanistan withdrawal.
The Army said in its statement that participants in the ceremony “were made aware of federal laws” which “clearly prohibit political activities on cemetery grounds.” The statement also noted that an Arlington National Cemetery official “who attempted to ensure adherence” to these rules “was abruptly pushed aside.”
Reportedly, when the cemetery official — a woman — tried to prevent Trump and his staff from entering the prohibited area, Trump’s staff verbally abused her and pushed her out of the way so Trump could enter.
The Army statement went on to say: “It is unfortunate that the ANC employee and her professionalism has been unfairly attacked. ANC is a national shrine to the honored dead of the Armed Forces, and its dedicated staff will continue to ensure public ceremonies are conducted with the dignity and respect the nation’s fallen deserve.”
The incident has blown up into a big issue, but not because the Trump campaign erroneously held a political event at the Arlington National Cemetery.
It’s blown up because it’s a microcosm of Donald Trump’s moral squalor.
Trump has repeatedly shown contempt for military heroism. He claimed that the late John McCain, who had been a prisoner of war, was “not a war hero. He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”
When General Mark Milley invited a wounded, wheelchair-bound soldier to sing “God Bless America” at Milley’s welcoming ceremony as Trump’s chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump admonished him, “Why do you bring people like that here? No one wants to see that, the wounded.”
On a trip to France in 2018, Trump refused to visit the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery, where more than 2,200 U.S. service members are buried. “Why should I go to that cemetery?” he asked staff members. “It’s filled with losers.”
According to Trump’s then-chief of staff John Kelly, Trump called the Marines who died at Belleau Wood “suckers” for getting killed.
Trump recently said that the Congressional Medal of Freedom he’d awarded to Republican donor Miriam Adelson was “much better” than the Medal of Honorbecause Medal of Honor recipients are “either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they are dead.”
It’s not only Trump’s disdain for military heroism that’s brought to mind by what happened at Arlington National Cemetery. It’s also Trump’s disdain for the law, suggesting other occasions when Trump and his henchmen have disregarded legal rules, including their attempt to reverse the outcome of the 2020 election.
Verbally abusing and pushing the cemetery employee who was trying to enforce the law, after she notified Trump and his staff that it was illegal to stage political events at the ceremony, recalls other instances when Trump and gang have pushed people aside, using violence to try to get their way. Think January 6, 2021.
That the employee in question is a woman brings to mind the multitude of ways Trump has employed violence against women, from grabbing their genitals to raping them to stirring up his followers to threaten them. She declined to press charges because, according to military officials, she feared retaliation by Trump supporters.
The entire incident is also a microcosm of Trump’s utter disdain for morality, honor, and patriotism — the public virtues, the common good. The cemetery is a sacred, hallowed ground. It is considered to be a national shrine. Trump sullied it to achieve his personal goal of the moment: to get a news clip in which he could bash Biden and, indirectly, Kamala Harris.
The incident rings the warning bells, rekindles the dark memories, revives the fears.
What happened at Arlington National Cemetery earlier this week was much more than an erroneous photo op. It was Trump on full display.
Friday, August 30, 2024
Sharp Rise In Voter Enthusiasm Is Driven By Democrats
The charts above are from the Gallup Poll -- done between August 1st and 20th of a nationwide sample of 932 registered voters, with a 4 point margin of error.
About 231,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly unemployment report on Thursday. It showed about 231,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on August 24th. Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 232,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 236,000 to 236,250.
Note To Allred: Don't Neglect To Campaign In The Red Areas
The Harris/Walz campaign is doing something I like a lot. They are taking their campaign to the red areas of Georgia - and they plan to do the same thing in other states. That's smart. Even if they can't win those red areas, they can reduce Trump's margin in them (and that might allow them to win statewide).
I think Democrat Colin Allred should do the same thing in his race for the Senate in Texas.
Texas' largest 15 counties contain about 65% of the total votes in the state. And if the election was only in those 15 counties, Democrats would do very well. But Texas has 239 other counties, and most of them are bright red. While they only have about 35% of the vote, they normally give Republican a 30% to 40% vote margin. That huge margin gives the GOP the votes they need to overcome any deficit they might have in the large cities in the state - and it allows them to keep control of the state.
These red areas are mostly rural and they don't get a lot of visits (or attention) from politicians. Many just regard them as hopelessly owned by the Republican Party.
That's a mistake. There are a significant number of Democrats and Independents in those rural counties. While the Democrats can be counted on, the Independents should not be ignored. They could be courted to vote blue, but they need to be asked to do so - in person, not just in a TV ad. They need to be shown they are not discounted or forgotten. Right now, many of them stay home on Election Day because they don't believe anyone cares about them. That doesn't have to be!
Now you may be thinking that even if a Democrat campaigns in these areas they will still lose there. That may well be true. But a Democrat like Allred doesn't have to win in these areas. He just needs to cut into the GOP margin there - lowering it from 30% to 40% to about 15% to 20%. That might well be enough to stop the GOP from overcoming the Democratic advantage in urban areas - and give the Democrats a statewide win.
As someone who lived in a rural red county for many years, I believe the Democrats could help themselves there. But it can only be done by going there and asking for their votes.
Raising the Democratic margin in blue areas must be combined with reducing the Republican majority in red areas if Democrats are to win a statewide race in Texas.
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Trump Would Add More To The National Debt Than Harris
Republicans love to whine about the national debt when a Democrat is in office.
But they don't seem to care about it when a Republican is in office. They helped Trump pass a massive tax cut bill (most of which benefitted the rich and super-rich), ignoring the fact that it added over 3 trillion dollars to the national debt.
Now their chosen presidential candidate (Donald Trump) has an agenda that will add trillions more to the national debt, and they aren't talking about that at all. Trump wants to extend those tax cuts for the rich (which would add another 3.4 trillion dollars to the national debt) and has other proposals that would add hundreds of billions on top of that.
Kamala Harris has some proposals that would add to the debt, but she also has a proposal that would raise the tax on corporations and mitigate that.
Note the chart above (from Axios.com), that shows Trump would add far more to the national debt that Harris would.
Don't let a Republican tell you the GOP is the party of fiscal responsibility. The opposite is true!
Latest YouGov Poll Gives Harris A 2-Point Lead Over Trump
The charts above reflect the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 25th and 27th of a nationwide sample of 1,368 registered voters, with a 3.2 point margin of error.
View Of Harris On Crime And The Economy Is Improving
The charts above reflect the results of the Reuters / Ipsos Poll -- done between August 23rd and 25th of a nationwide sample of 1,028 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.
Wednesday, August 28, 2024
FAU Poll Gives Harris A 4-Point Lead Over Trump
The chart above reflects the results of the Florida Atlantic University / Mainstreet Research Poll - done between August 23rd and 25th of a nationwide sample of 929 registered voters, with about a 3.2 point margin of error.
The Defining Issue In The 2024 Presidential Election Is Trump!
The TV talking heads and newspaper pundits have spent a lot of time and effort trying to determine what issue will be the deciding factor in the 2024 presidential election. Will it be inflation, abortion, immigration, health care, crime, or some other issue?
I think they are missing the most important thing. This is not really an issues election - at least not for the presidential election. If we had two fairly normal politicians running for president, issues would be important (as they have been in the past). But this is not a normal election with normal politicians running.
The defining and most important thing in this election is Donald Trump. One side thinks Trump was a green president and wants to give him another four years. The other side thinks Trump was the worst president in this nation's history and another four years of him scares the hell out of them.
It's a choice - Trump or someone else (Harris). Nothing else even comes close to this. The love for or hatred of Trump easily beats any other issue. And the side turning out the most votes (to win the electoral college) will win.
Open Letter By Past GOP Campaign Staffers
This open letter was issued and signed by 238 staff members of George H.W. Bush, John McCain. George W. Bush, and Mitt Romney.
Tuesday, August 27, 2024
It's The Bullies Versus The People In This Election
This post is from former Labor Secretary Robert Reich:
I’m feeling optimistic about Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
I want to put this extraordinary moment into context.
Like many of you, I’ve worked my heart out during elections. (My first one was in 1968, when I went “clean for Gene” — Eugene McCarthy — shaved off my beard and organized volunteers to go door-to-door for the anti-Vietnam War candidate.) And like many of you, I’ve been heartbroken by some election outcomes.
This one feels different.
Over my lifetime there’s been a shift in power: from small businesses, local and regional banks, labor unions, and political parties to giant corporations, Wall Street, and a handful of obscenely wealthy donors.
Today, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, and the Democratic Party, have a real chance to take back some of that power on behalf of all of us.
In the 1950s and 1960s, America created the largest middle class the world had ever seen. It gave America enough confidence to pass the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act. It enabled people of color and women to begin to gain ground. And we had a Supreme Court that encouraged this.
Then around 1980, progress stopped. The bullies began taking over.
As a kid, I was always a head shorter than other boys, which meant I was bullied, mocked, threatened, sometimes assaulted.
Over the last four decades, America has allowed fiercer bullying than anything I experienced as a kid. Wealthier Americans have bullied poorer Americans, CEOs have bullied their workers, white people have bullied people of color, men have bullied women, people born in America have bullied new arrivals and undocumented workers.
Sometimes bullying involves physical violence, but more often it entails intimidation, displays of dominance, demands for submission, or arbitrary decisions over the lives of those who have no choice but to accept them.
At some point, those who are bullied fight back.
I remember the day I did, when I had had enough. I was 10 years old. One morning when I was waiting for the school bus, a local bully started shaking me down. He wanted my lunch box and the change in my pocket. He began threatening me physically, as he had done several times before.
I felt power well up inside me. I quietly put down my lunch box and punched the bully in the nose.
It was a mild punch. It merely stunned him. (It stunned me, too. I had never delivered even a mild punch before — nor have I since. ) But it demonstrated that I wouldn’t take his bullying any longer. And from that day onward, he left me alone.
Donald Trump is a bully. He has used his wealth to gain power, and used his power to target people of color, harass and abuse women, lie, violate the law, trample on our Constitution, and rage at anyone who calls him on his bullying.
Since Joe Biden passed the torch to Kamala Harris, Trump has been on the defensive. But make no mistake: He became president by exploiting the anger of millions of white working-class Americans who for decades have been economically and culturally bullied by corporate executives, Wall Street, and upper middle-class urban professionals.
The bullied are still there; Trump is still exploiting their anger.
For nearly a decade, Trump has channeled that anger into racism, nativism, and misogyny. He has encouraged his followers to feel powerful by bullying those with even less power: poor Black and Latino people, immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, Muslims, families seeking asylum, undocumented workers, pregnant women who can’t afford to travel to a state where abortions are legal.
This bullying game has been played repeatedly in history by self-described strongmen who pretend to be tribunes of the oppressed by scapegoating the truly powerless, but who are actually fronting for the rich and powerful.
In reality, Trump and his lackeys work for the oligarchs — cutting their taxes, rolling back regulations that protect the public but that cost the oligarchs, and dividing the rest of us into warring factions so we don’t look upward to see where most power and wealth have gone.
The good news is that Americans are catching on.
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are part of a movement to make America more inclusive, strengthen our democracy, and stop the bullying.
The real fight between now and Election Day is not between Democrats and Republicans, as the two parties came to be known in the decades after World War II.
It is a fight that began to take shape in 1968 when Nixon won the presidency, that became bellicose after 1980 when Ronald Reagan took office, and that came into full view in 2016 when Trump won the electoral vote.
It is between democracy and oligarchy, between self-government and tyranny. It is a fight between the bullies and the bullied.
I have much the same feeling now as I had when I was 10 years old at the bus stop. I believe tens of millions of other Americans are experiencing it, too — including you.
We are feeling the power well up within us. We are quietly putting down our lunch boxes and are about to demonstrate to the bullies — peacefully, through the power of our votes — that we will no longer take their bullying.
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