Tuesday, April 15, 2025
The Economy, Prices, And Tariffs Are Dragging Trump's Numbers Down
These charts are from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between April 8th and 11th of a nationwide sample of 2,410 adults, with a 2.4 point margin of error.
Trump Has Provided An Opening For Democrats - They Must Seize It
The following is part of a New York Times article by Democratic consultant James Carville:
In many ways, President Trump is a one-trick Shetland pony: He talks a big game, like building a border wall or ending Covid, and then tries to distract Americans when his promises go belly up. Back in office this winter, he promised a golden age for the economy and the end of inflation starting on Day 1 — and then we got served plenty of fish bait: blowing smoke about seizing Greenland, huffing and puffing about annexing Canada and throwing people into a tizzy over seeking a third term, which hewill never be able to do.
Now we know why. Mr. Trump didn’t have a plan to bring down inflation and make life better (except for the rich, who disproportionately benefit from his tax cuts), and he was hellbent on tariffs at all costs.
The problem is that smoke and mirrors only work until you screw up so hard that no act of lunacy can pull the American people’s attention elsewhere. And boy, did the president just screw up royally.
In what will certainly be recorded as one of the most ignorant acts of political leadership in American history, the president of the United States has now willfully damaged the global economy with his tariff chaos. Not only was this an act of economic warfare, it has broken the cardinal rule in American politics: Never destabilize the economy. With it, the Trump administration is causing enormous damage to itself — and there can be no more distraction from this naked truth.
This is where the Democrats have an opening. In February I wrote a piece calling on my party’s leaders to play dead, allowing the Republicans to punch themselves out and crumble beneath their own weight. But many Democrats indulged Mr. Trump’s lunacy or allowed themselves to become the story over the government funding and shutdown debate, while the president continued his campaign of chaos and distraction. Now, Democrats have an opportunity to allow the Republicans to edge closer to collapse as the party in full control of Washington — let’s please not become the story again and get in their way. . . .
My fellow Democrats, it’s time we transform our party into a projector for the economic pain of the American people.
Here’s how to do it:
First, focus on prices. We must start with what matters most. . . .The most direct hit to working people’s pocketbooks will always be from the cost of daily goods. Making it clear that Trump and the Republicans willingly broke this promise should be in every ad, every podcast talking point, every message we send from now until the midterms.
Second, it’s not about the stock market, it’s about 401(k)s. With six in 10 Americans lacking the savings to cover even a $1,000 emergency expense, Democrats cannot afford to hinge our economic narrative on the rise and fall of a market for the privileged. For younger Americans, stocks will most likely rebound and grow over time. But the tariffs are a poison dagger for those who have saved and vested into their 401(k) their entire lives, just to see it depleted by the reckless actions of the president. . . .
And third, make the message local. . . .The Democratic Party must now take local stories and project them where they matter most. Record the story of Nicholas Gilbert, a dairy farmer upended by the tariffs — and localize it to Wisconsin. Focus on the Latino and Black men who supported his previous election, and take it to Georgia or Arizona. Go on influencer networks and podcasts talking about the looming increase in car prices and the fact that the president explodedNintendo’s plans for the Switch 2.
For the entirety of his tenure in American politics, Donald Trump for better or worse has lived on by the grace of the American people’s faith in his economic leadership. Now it is plain and clear, just as with his failures in Atlantic City or with Trump University, that President Trump never had any idea what he was doing all along. If we avoid the distractions to come and stay focused on the economy, Democrats can take back the one issue that has kept Trump on a respirator all this time.
Trump Administration Said They Were Violent Criminals - Where Is The Proof?
The Trump administration deported 238 immigrants to a maximum prison in El Salvador. A couple of days ago, they sent 10 more to that prison. Administration officials said they were violent criminals - the worst of the worst.
As President Bukele of El Salvador visited the White House, HHS Secretary Kristi Norm thanked him for taking these "worst" criminals that the U.S. didn't have room for. What a ridiculous statement!
The United States has more people in prison per capita than any other country in the entire world. I'm sure we could have found room for 248 more. The problem was not having enough room. It was violating both the Constitution and the rule of law.
These immigrants (and any other visitor to this country) have the same rights under our Constitution as citizens do. One of these important rights is "due process" - the right to a hearing or trial before the government takes punitive action against you.
If these deportees had been given a hearing (which was their right), the government would have had to prove they were undocumented. They could have done that probably, and then had the right to deport them to the country of their origin.
But they were not deported to the country of their origin (Venezuela). They were sent to El Salvador - and even worse, they were sent to a maximum security prison - possibly for the rest of their lives (or until the U.S. stopped paying El Salvador to incarcerate them).
That was a violation of the rule of law. The government of the United States cannot put anyone in prison with giving them a trial and providing proof that they have violated the law. No proof was offered and no trial was held. Mere statements by government officials are NOT proof!
The truth is that the government likely had no proof. At least 75% of these deportees had no criminal record - and the government offered no proof that any of them had violated U.S. law.
If these men were violent gang members and undocumented, then I would have no problem with their deportation. But it must be done correctly and within the law. When anyone is denied due process and imprisoned without proof in a trial, it puts everyone in danger - even citizens.
Rights must apply to everyone or they are assured for no one.
Monday, April 14, 2025
The Trump Regime: Cruel, Vicious, Heartless, And Brutal
The following is just part of a post by Robert Reich:
Several of you have asked me how to live in a nation whose leader has embraced cruelty as public policy.
Molly watched Trump sign the executive order initiating criminal investigations of Miles Taylor (who wrote an anonymous 2018 New York Times op-ed describing internal resistance to Trump in his first term) and Christopher Krebs (who played a major role in undercutting Trump’s false claims about 2020 election fraud).
Others of you are thunderstruck by Trump’s cruelty toward refugees who fled violence and have been living in the United States legally but are now being forced to return to their home countries and face more violence.
And the Trump regime’s cruelty toward people here on temporary visas who are deported arbitrarily, without a hearing — some sent to a gruesome prison in El Salvador even after the regime has admitted error in sending them.
And children in poor countries who are in desperate need of vaccines but are now doing without them because Trump has ended USAID.
The cruelty toward vulnerable people in Gaza, in Ukraine, and in Yemen who are being bombed, wounded, or killed because the Trump regime is doing nothing to stop these bloodbaths or is contributing to them.
Cruelty toward tens of thousands of public servants who are suddenly and without warning fired — some just months away from retirement and a pension.
Revoking security protection for Biden’s son and daughter. And for General Mark Milley and Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Revoking security protection for other former members of his first administration despite warnings of ongoing threats from Iran because of actions they took on Trump’s behalf.
Firing more than a dozen prosecutors who worked for the special counsel Jack Smith on criminal investigations of Trump.
Revoking security clearances of 51 people who merely signed a letter suggesting that the contents of Hunter Biden’s laptop could be Russian disinformation.
Targeting law firms that employ or have employed lawyers who worked on investigations into Trump or on causes Trump objects to.
Targeting universities that have allowed international students freedom of speech.
And on it goes, day after day — the Trump regime’s abject cruelty, viciousness, heartlessness, brutality.
How does a moral person live with this?
Sunday, April 13, 2025
Most Voters Say Musk Has Too Much Power In Government Decisions
The chart above reflects the results of the Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between April 3rd and 7th of a nationwide sample of 1,407 registered voters, with a 2.6 point margin of error.
Trump Blinks First In His Stare-Down With China
The orange bully in the White House thought he could bully China into doing what he wants. Although backing down on his "reciprocal" tariffs for other countries, he imposed a huge tariff on Chinese goods imported into the United States. And when China did not back down, he raised that tariff to a ridiculous 145%.
That means an import costing $10 would cost $24.50, and one costing $100 would cost $245. Trump thought the huge tariff would force China to beg for relief. They did NOT! Instead, they put a tariff of 125% on any American goods entering their country - making most American goods too expensive for Chinese consumers. It effectively cuts of the huge Chinese market for American producers.
The trade war stare-down was set. Who would blink first? It was DONALD TRUMP!
It turns out that nearly all of the electronics purchased in the United States are made in Asia - most of them in China. Those electronics (smart phones, TV's, computers, etc.) would be hit with the 145% tariff. And there would be no way for American consumers to avoid the massive price hike. They would have to pay the huge price tag, or do without!
It doesn't take a genius to figure out this was going to make Americans very angry. The U.S. public is already angry over continuing inflation (which Trump had promised to fix during the campaign). Such huge price hikes on electronics is guaranteed to hasten Trump's already declining approval with voters.
Realizing he has badly miscalculated, Trump backed down. He exempted electronics and computer chips from any tariff.
Meanwhile, China is holding firm - and it doesn't look like they will back down anytime soon. Knowing they could be selling less of many things to the United States, they are shifting their view to other countries - especially the European Union. Other things China could do - refuse to buy any goods from U.S. farmers, restrict what targeted U.S. corporations could export from (or into) China, cut off the supply of rare earth minerals to the U.S., and devalue the Yuan.
It looks like China is in this for the long haul, and willing to accept some economic pain. Trump is not. He's already shown he'll back down when things get too hot.
Trump can't win this trade war. The only question is how much damage will he do to the U.S. economy before he realizes that.
Saturday, April 12, 2025
Trump's Tariffs Are Very Unpopular With Voters
The charts above are from the Global Strategy Group / Navigator Poll -- done between April 3rd and 7th of a nationwide sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.
Friday, April 11, 2025
New Poll Shows Most Voters Unhappy With Trump
The chart above reflects the results of the Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between April 3rd and 7th of a nationwide sample of 1,407 registered voters, with a 2.6 point margin of error.
About 223,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly unemployment report on Thursday. It showed about 223,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on April 5th. Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending April 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000.
Market Rebounds For One Day As Trump Backs Down On Some Tariffs
Donald Trump, as he has done in the past, backed off his tariff plan. He delayed the "reciprocal" tariffs for 90 days. That caused a rebound in the stock market. The market had a good day and gained back some of what it had lost in the last few days.
This had some wondering if the move was planned by Trump so his family and friends could take advantage of low market prices and make some money. I doubt it.
That would assume Trump understands economics at a professional level. He doesn't. Trump is not a clever villain. He's an obtuse bully.
And like all bullies, he backed down when frightened. He was frightened by the radical drop in the stock market - especially in the bond market (which is more predictive of the economic future).
Any gains made during the one-day surge of the market would have been limited, because the market again plunged downward on Friday - and is likely to continue going down. Investors realized that Trump didn't pause all his new tariffs. Most countries still have a new 10% tariffs, which will raise prices of nearly everything as it gets passed along to U.S. consumers.
The truth is that Trump loves tariffs (and has for decades). He has bragged about them and kind of painted himself into a corner with that. While he can pause them (as he's done several times now), he can do away with them. That would be admitting he was wrong - something his narcissism won't allow him to do.
The economic problems for the country, inflicted unnecessarily by Trump, are not over. Most tariffs will remain, inflation will get worse, job losses will climb, and there's a very good chance of a recession.
Trump is NOT an economic genius - and he refuses to listen to those who are.
Thursday, April 10, 2025
Inflation Is Currently Viewed As The Most Serious Problem In The U.S.
The chart above reflects the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between April 5th and 8th of a nationwide sample of 1,741 adults (including 1,563 registered voters). The margin of error is 3.1 points for adults and 2.9 points for registered voters.
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