Tuesday, September 17, 2024
The Senate Race In Texas Is Closer Than Expected
From The Hill:
“Anybody that says, ‘It just doesn’t happen in Texas’ — it doesn’t happen until it does,” pollster Brett Loyd said of the possibility Allred scores an upset in the Senate race.
The contest between Cruz and Allred, whose entry last year shifted Cook Political Report’s rating of the Senate seat from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, is one of a small handful that have emerged as unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall.
Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of flipping the seat. O’Rourke’s bid benefited from the broader “blue wave” in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allred can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle. In 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) defeated O’Rourke’s bid for the governor’s mansion by double digits.
But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percent mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.
“If you’re Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you’re not at 50 percent and you’re not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that’s going to be problematic,” Loyd said.
U.S. Should NOT Restrict Ukraine's Use Of Provided Weapons
Russia continues to attack Ukraine with every kind of weapon it has, and has recently increased its attacks on Ukraine's civilians. But Ukraine is unable to do the same to Russia. That's because the U.S. (and NATO) has restricted the use of weapons they provide to Ukraine (especially long-range weapons the provided like missiles and F-16's).
In effect, we are forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind their back. That's ridiculous, and it must change. War is a messy and horrible business. But if it must be fought, it should be fought on equal terms.
So far, Ukraine has attacked Russia, but only with their home-made drones. That's not good enough. They, like Russia, should be able to attack with any weapon they have (or can get).
I know that Russia has threatened to declare war on NATO if we allow Ukraine to use the weapons provided to attack Russia. That's just bluster.
It's become obvious that Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, and is having a lot of trouble just hanging on to the eastern provinces it has taken. Declaring war on NATO would be a serious mistake - and Putin knows it. NATO has the weaponry and strength to quickly push Russia out of all of Ukraine - and easily defend all NATO nations.
The same is true for nuclear weapons. Putin knows he cannot use them without causing Russia to suffer massive destruction!
The U.S. and NATO should provide Ukraine with all the weapons they request, and then let them use those weapons without any restrictions. Not allowing them to fight on an equal basis with Russia just makes no sense!
Monday, September 16, 2024
Another Poll Shows Harris Won The Debate And Grabbed A lead
The charts above are from the Yahoo News / YouGov Poll -- done between September 11th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,755 adults, with a 2.9 point margin of error.
Trump Wants To Give Putin A Win In His War Against Ukraine
Fearing a race against Joe Biden, Donald Trump asked Ukraine to start an investigation of Mr. Biden. Ukraine refused to illegally interfere in the U.S. election. Now Trump wants to punish Ukraine by giving his buddy Putin a win in the Ukraine war.
The following is part of an op-ed by David French in The New York Times:
He (Trump) refused to say — in the face of repeated questions — that he wanted Ukraine to win its war with Russia. Trump emphasized ending the war over winning the war, a position that can seem reasonable, right until you realize that attempting to force peace at this stage of the conflict would almost certainly cement a Russian triumph. Russia would hold an immense amount of Ukrainian territory and Putin would rightly believe he bested both Ukraine and the United States. He would have rolled the “iron dice” of war and he would have won.
There is no scenario in which a Russian triumph is in America’s best interest. A Russian victory would not only expand Russia’s sphere of influence, it would represent a human rights catastrophe (Russia has engaged in war crimes against Ukraine’s civilian population since the beginning of the war) and threaten the extinction of Ukrainian national identity. It would reset the global balance of power.
In addition, a Russian victory would make World War III more, not less, likely. It would teach Vladimir Putin that aggression pays, that the West’s will is weak and that military conquest is preferable to diplomatic engagement. China would learn a similar lesson as it peers across the strait at Taiwan.
If Vladimir Putin is stopped now — while Ukraine and the West are imposing immense costs in Russian men and matériel — it will send the opposite message, making it far more likely that the invasion of Ukraine is Putin’s last war, not merely his latest.
But that’s not how Trump thinks about Ukraine. He exhibits deep bitterness toward the country, and it was that bitterness that helped expose how dangerous he was well before the Big Lie and Jan. 6. . . .
Trump’s reluctance to say the plain truth — that a Ukrainian victory is in America’s national interest — demonstrates that he is still a prisoner to his own grievances, and there is no one left who can stop him from doing his worst.
Sunday, September 15, 2024
Harris Has The Race Lead (And Won The Debate)
The charts above are from the Data For Progress Poll -- done on September 12th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,283 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.
The Choice Is Stark For Voters In The 2024 Election
In most of the presidential elections in this century, voters have faced a choice of policies.
In Bush - Gore (2000), Bush - Kerry (2004), Obama - McCain (2008), and Obama - Romney (2012), the policies of the candidates were different. But all of the candidates, minus their policies, were fundamentally decent people.
They were people you could have an enjoyable conversation with. They were people you wouldn't mind having a drink or dinner with. They were people you wouldn't mind living next door. You might disagree with them, but they weren't bad people.
That changed in 2016, when Donald Trump became a candidate. I can understand why some people voted for him that year, because a lot of voters really didn't know that much about him.
But after his four years in office, the public came to know who he was, and most didn't like it. He exposed himself as different from past candidates - dishonest, greedy, angry, disrespectful of others, and dangerously narcissistic. And they rejected him in 2020 - choosing instead another fundamentally decent person in Joe Biden.
In 2024, voters are again faced with a stark choice. It's not a choice between fundamentally decent candidates with different policies. It's a choice between good and bad. It's a choice between decency and indecency. It's a choice between hope and fear. It's a choice between someone who thinks about others and someone who thinks only of himself.
Donald Trump has shown us who he is - and he's not a good person. Kamala Harris, whatever you might think of her policies, is a good person.
I hope voters will again reject the bad person. The presidency is too important, to this country and the world, and it requires a good and decent person to serve in the office.
It really is good versus evil. Make the right choice.
Saturday, September 14, 2024
Most people Want Supreme Court Reforms
This chart is from a survey done by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of 1,590 adults nationwide, with a 3.2 point margin of error.
Two New Polls Show Harris Lead Extended
The chart above reflects the results of the Reuters / Ipsos Poll -- done on September 11th and 12th of a nationwide sample of 1,405 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.
Friday, September 13, 2024
NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Poll Has Harris With Small Lead
The chart above reflects the results of a NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Poll -- done between September 3rd and 5th of a nationwide sample of 1,413 registered voters (with a 3.3 point margin of error), and 1,164 who say they will definitely vote (with a 3.6 point margin of error).
About 230,000 Workers Filed For Unemployment Last Week
The Labor Department released its weekly unemployment report on Thursday. It showed that about 230,000 workers filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending on September 7th. Here is the official Labor Department statement:
In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.
Trump Would NOT Make The Economy Better For Workers
I was astounded the other day when some people were questioned. Several said they thought electing Donald Trump would be better for the economy. I could understand that if those questioned were rich, but they were not. They seemed to be members of the working and/or middle classes.
Where did they get such a crazy idea? How could they think that a super-rich person who has never done anything for workers would do so in a new term? What are his policies that they think would help workers?
Although Trump has been campaigning for months, he has only revealed three things he would do for the economy: extend the tax cut he got passed when he was in office, impose heavy tariffs (between 10% and 60%) on imported goods entering the U.S., and put billionaire corporate mogul Elon Musk in charge of de-regulating corporations.
Extending his tax cuts (82% of which went to the rich) will not help anyone but the rich - and it will add trillions of dollars to the national debt. How will that help the working or middle classes?
His tariff idea would just significantly increase the price of goods in the United States. Inflation has been reduced during the term of President Biden, and it is still falling. Trump's tariffs would reverse that - increasing inflation. How will that help the working or middle classes?
And de-regulating corporations would not help. Those regulations are in place to protect workers and consumers. And the corporations don't need that de-regulation, since they are currently making record profits with the regulations in place. How would de-regulation help the working and middle classes?
The truth is that Trump's economic policies would be great for the rich, super-rich, and corporations. But it would not help anyone else. Trump's policies would actually make things worse for the bottom 90% of Americans.
Trump loves to claim the economy was better under him than under Biden. That's a lie. Real GDP is higher now than it was under Trump. And more jobs have been created under Biden than under Trump. Both are true even after accounting for the effect of COVID.
Don't fall for Trump's lies. The economy would NOT be better under him - it would be worse for the working and middle classes!
Thursday, September 12, 2024
U.S. Public Wants Stricter Gun Laws
The charts above reflect the results of the Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of a nationwide sample of 1,626 adults, with a 3.3 point margin of error.
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