Polls Aren't Wrong - But There's Something They Can't Know

In 2016, the polls all told us the American people wanted Hillary Clinton to be president. But thanks to a close votes in a handful of states, and the archaic electoral college, Trump became president.

In 2022, many polls were predicting a "red wave" with voters preferring Republicans because of President Biden's unpopularity. But the "red wave" fizzled as a massive number of Democrats and Independents voted.

In both cases, the media was full of headlines saying the polls were wrong! Were they? 

I don't think they were wrong. They fairly accurately told us what the American public was thinking. So why didn't the elections turn out as predicted by the polls?

Because there is one thing the polls (or anyone else) can't know - who and how many will vote. Some polls try to account for that by differentiating "likely voters" from all registered voters. But it's still a guessing game. Someone that claims they will defnitely vote might not, and someone who normally doesn't vote may decide to vote.

And if the polls show one candidate with a large lead, some of their supporters may decide their vote is not needed. And supporters of the candidate losing in the polls may decide it's hopeless and not vote. Both of those can skew the results, and make us think the polls were wrong (even though they accurately told us the mood of the public). 

I like polls. Polls can tell us the mood of the country. But polls cannot actually predict the winner all the time. So, disregard whether your candidate is ahead or behind in the polls - and VOTE. Voting is the only thing that decides an election. Make sure your's counts.