Public Still Views Bush Presidency As Failure

The Bush Library is ready to open, and today he will celebrate that opening with Presidents Obama, Clinton, Bush I, and Clinton. Bush is still hoping that history will treat him kindly, and that the library will help to rehabilitate his image. But he has a way to go for that to happen, because the majority of Americans still view his presidency as a failure.

This is in opposition to recent presidents of both parties. George H.W. Bush was viewed by a majority (53%) as having a successful presidency after leaving office, while Bill Clinton was viewed as a success by 68%. Not so for George W. Bush, who was viewed negatively after leaving office and is still viewed negatively by most of the public (the exception being whites, Republicans, the elderly, rural people, and gun owners).

In the wake of the opening of the Bush Library, CNN commissioned a poll. The CNN/ORC POLL was taken between April 5th and 7th of 1,012 random nationwide adults (with a 3 point margin of error). Here are the numbers (with the first number being those who view his presidency as a success, and the number in parentheses being those who view it as a failure):

General public...............42% (55%)

Men...............44% (53%)
Women...............41% (57%)

Whites................52% (45%)
Non-whites...............21% (77%)

18 to 34...............33% (67%)
35 to 49...............44% (53%)
50 to 64...............43% (54%)
65 plus...............55% (41%)

Under $50k...............41% (56%)
Over $50k................42% (56%)

No college...............47% (51%)
Attended college...............39% (58%)

Democrat...............13% (86%)
Independent...............43% (53%)
Republican...............80% (19%)

Northeast...............35% (63%)
Midwest...............43% (53%)
South...............47% (51%)
West...............42% (56%)

Urban...............32% (65%)
Suburban...............46% (51%)
Rural...............52% (46%)

Gun in household...............55% (43%)
No gun in household...............31% (66%)

Comparing Trump To Obama

Recently Donald Trump has climbed rapidly in the polls of possible Republican presidential candidates, mainly due to his appeal among the teabaggers (especially the birthers). Since there is an outside chance that Trump might actually be the Republican candidate (because there is no favorite yet and the teabaggers will probably control the convention), CNN/Opinion Research decided to poll people on their views of President Obama and Donald Trump.

The poll would have been more useful if the other leading Republicans had been included, but I found it interesting anyway so I'm printing some of the results here. (By the way, in a head-to-head match-up they found Obama had a 22 point lead). Here is what those surveyed (1,034 adults between April 29th and May 1st -- with a 3 point margin of error) thought about the qualities normally regarded as necessary for a president. The percentage given is the number of people who believe the person has that quality:

INTELLIGENCE
Obama...............88%
Trump...............82%

TOUGH ENOUGH TO HANDLE A CRISES
Obama...............58%
Trump...............57%

IS LIKEABLE
Obama...............82%
Trump...............50%

IS A PERSON YOU ADMIRE
Obama...............55%
Trump...............32%

IS HONEST & TRUSTWORTHY
Obama...............59%
Trump...............34%

SHARES YOUR VALUES
Obama...............51%
Trump...............24%

UNDERSTANDS PROBLEMS FACED BY ORDINARY AMERICANS
Obama...............52%
Trump...............26%

CAN MANAGE THE GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVELY
Obama...............51%
Trump...............37%

Hillary Is Popular - Teabaggers Are Not

There was a time a few years ago when vicious attacks from the right-wing had seriously eroded the popularity of Hillary Clinton. Listening to those attacks could have people believing Hillary was the anti-christ, and her favorability numbers showed it. In 1996, only about 43% of Americans had a favorable opinion of her.

But those days are long gone, and today Hillary Clinton is probably the most popular politician in this country. A recent Gallup Poll taken March 25th through 27th of 1,027 adults shows Clinton with a favorability rating now of 66%, with an unfavorability rating of only 31%. That gives her a +35 rating -- very nice!

Those are even better numbers than President Obama has, and his aren't bad. Obama has a favorability rating of 54%/43% (+11). In fact 45% of those who give Obama's job performance an unfavorable rating give Hillary a favorable rating.

Of course numbers this good has some people thinking Hillary should make another run for the presidency. She has already said she wouldn't run against the president in 2012, and that's a wise decision since such a run could only hurt the party (and being a good Democrat, Hillary would never do that). But 2016 is wide open and she would have to be the Democratic Party favorite -- at least for now.

The only fly-in-the-ointment is the fact that sitting Secretary's of State don't historically do well when they run for president. The last one to win was James Buchanan in 1856. Maybe that's why she's said she doesn't want another term as Secretary of State, and if Obama's re-elected he'll have to find someone else to do the job. That's kind of a shame since I think she's done a very good job in the position. But if it gives her the time to position herself for a presidential run in 2016, then it's a good thing.

I did not support Hillary Clinton in 2008. I jumped on the Obama bandwagon fairly early. But I like Hillary a lot, and if she decides to run in 2016 she will most likely have my support.

But while Hillary's popularity has been rising, the popularity of the teabagger "movement" has not. I wrote recently about the teabaggers throwing a convention in Florida where only 300 people showed up instead of the thousands that were expected. Now a CNN/Opinion Research poll (taken March 11th through 13th of 1,023 adults) shows that the group's popularity has dropped significantly.

The poll shows that the favorability rating for the teabaggers has dropped a full 5 points just since December. It now stands at 32%. Meanwhile the people who have an unfavorable view of the teabaggers has climbed sharply, and currently stands at 47% (giving them a rating of -15). That's up 4 points since December, and up about 21 points since January 2010. It's the highest negative rating they've had, and it rivals the unfavorable ratings of both political parties now (but the political parties have much higher favorability ratings). Here are the numbers:

TEABAGGERS
favorable...............32%
unfavorable...............47%

REPUBLICANS
favorable...............44%
unfavorable...............48%

DEMOCRATS
favorable...............46%
unfavorable...............48%

The rise in the teabaggers unfavorable rating seems to be most pronounced among the half of Americans that make less than $50,000 a year. The unfavorability number has risen about 15 points among this group just since October. It has risen only 5% among those making over $50,000 a year.

It looks like the draconian cuts the teabagger politicians are trying to make is starting to worry the under $50,000 group. The general idea of cutting the budget sounded good in the general election campaign, but now the reality of just what the teabagger Republicans want to cut is starting to scare them -- and it should. The teabagger Republicans want to make all their cuts in programs that mostly affect those making less money in this society, while giving the rich tax cuts and giant corporations massive subsidies. The unfairness of this is becoming more apparent with each passing day.

I think most Americans want the budget cut, but they want it done fairly with the rich and the corporations taking their fair share of the pain. If the Republicans continue to follow the teabagger policies (which were initiated by the rich corporate donors -- and was always a top-down "movement") they could find themselves out in the cold on election day in 2012.

President Obama Does Well In New Poll

There is a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll out, and it's sort of a mixed blessing for Democrats. The poll was conducted by telephone between April 9th and 11th, and involved 1008 adults with a margin of error of 3 points (907 were registered voters and that group had a margin of error of 3.5 points).

The poll shows both Democrats and Republicans are pretty close in popularity. The Democrats had a favorability rating of 49% with an unfavorable rating of 46%. Republicans had a favorability rating of 47% and an unfavorable rating of 47%. That's virtually a dead heat between the two parties, since the numbers are within the margin of error.

When the respondents were asked whether they would vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, the numbers were similar. Registered voters gave Democrats a very slight edge (50% to 46%), as did all respondents (50% to 45%). When you consider the margin of error, that gives Democrats an edge of between .5% to 5%. That's close, and shows neither party has a big lead so far in the upcoming congressional elections.

It's still possible that something could happen to give one party or the other an edge in the upcoming elections, but if the numbers remain the same, incumbents will probably hold their seats and open seats will be closely contested. While Republicans could easily pick up a few seats (and the party out of power usually does in an off-year election), these numbers are going to have to improve a lot before Republicans can hope to regain either house of Congress.

Then the poll turned to presidential politics, and the Democrats look pretty good there. Or, at least President Obama does. He received a favorability rating of 57%, with only Hillary Clinton scoring higher at 61%. The favorability ratings were much worse for possible Republican candidates -- Mike Huckabee - 43%, Mitt Romney - 40%, Sarah Palin - 39% and Newt Gingrich 38%. These are not good numbers for Republicans.

Then the poll asked respondents what Republican they would choose if the election were held today. The results showed there is no clear favorite yet, since no candidate got even 25% of the vote. Here are the numbers:

Mike Huckabee...............24%

Mitt Romney...............20%

Sarah Palin...............15%

Newt Gingrich...............14%

Ron Paul...............8%

Rick Santorum...............3%

Tim Pawlenty...............2%

Mike Pence...............2%

Haley Barbour...............1%

There's still about two years to go and something could happen to give one of these candidates an edge, or a new candidate could emerge. But these numbers show that the Republican nomination is still wide open. Even so, none of these candidates would stand a chance against President Obama right now. Here are how the top four Republicans would fare against Obama (with registered voters):

Obama...............54%

Huckabee...............45%

Obama...............53%

Romney...............45%

Obama...............55%

Palin...............42%

Obama...............55%

Gingrich...............43%

It looks like the Republicans still have a lot of work to do to even have a chance of unseating President Obama in 2012. Another interesting statistic is the popularity of the teabaggers, who only got a 38% favorability rating.

Majority Still Favors Public Option

The House and Senate Democrats are still debating the differences between their health care reform bills (and I use that term loosely regarding the Senate version). Two of the major differences between the bills are whether to include a public option and what kind of tax to impose to pay for the reform. It looks like the Senate may prevail because President Obama has signed on to their version.

But maybe Congress should look at the new CNN/Opinion Research poll before they make up their minds. This new poll, which surveyed 1,021 Americans between January 8th and 10th, shows the public is not enarmored with the Senate bill. A clear majority like the House version better.

For months, a majority of people have wanted a public option to be included in the bill, and that majority is still intact (regardless of the lies being told by the right-wing who want us to believe otherwise). The new CNN/OR poll shows that 54% of the population supports a government-run (or "public") option for health insurance, which is included in the House version of the bill.

The poll also shows the people support the House's way to pay for the reform. The House would put a tax on people with high incomes to pay for it, while the Senate would tax high-end private insurance plans (even if they belong to workers who don't make high salaries). At least 61% of the people like the tax on the wealthy better, including around 50% of those who make $100,000 or more.

The right-wing would like for everyone to believe that a majority are opposed to health care reform, but that is just not true. Although 57% say they are opposed to the current bills (especially the Senate bill), only 45% say they are opposed because the bills are too liberal. The other 12% think the bills are not liberal enough and want more reform. I believe the people in this group (including myself) could be persuaded to support the House bill as long as a public option remained in it.

Senate Democrats are not taking this 12% seriously, and that is a mistake. They think the 12% will wind up voting Democratic even without a public option. They could well be wrong. I can only speak for myself, but I think many others will agree when I say I will not vote for a blue dog Democrat at any level (local, state or national).

I will seek out and vote for truly progressive Democrats next November, but if I get even a whiff of blue dog from a candidate then I will vote third party (or not vote in that race). The Green Party is on many state ballots, and they make an attractive alternative when running against a blue dog.

I urge Congressional Democrats to listen to the people. If you don't, you may wind up paying for it in November.

Health Care Bill Rises In Popularity

Sunday night, the Senate had it's first cloture vote toward final passage of the new health care reform bill. There are still several votes to go, and it'll probably take a few more days, but it looks like nothing can stop the bill from passing now. For those of us who think the bill doesn't go nearly far enough toward reforming the current system, our only hope now rests with the committee that will reconcile the Senate and House versions of the bill.

But it does look like the Senate's probable passage of it's bill has increased support for that bill. On December 2-3, a CNN/Opinion Research poll showed the bill only had the support of 36% of the American people. CNN released a new poll yesterday that showed support for the bill had risen to 42%. That's a six point rise in popularity. I suspect it comes from progressives who have given up and decided something is better than nothing.

That still leaves 56% of the American people that are opposed to the Senate version of the bill for one reason or another. I guess the other 2% just don't care what happens -- they must have lots of money and great insurance. Otherwise, I don't see how they could not care.

That 56% who are opposed might make it look like the Republicans are right, and that people think the bill is too liberal (or socialist). But that is just not true. Only 40% think the bill is too liberal.

The other 16% of those opposed to the bill think just the opposite -- that the bill is not liberal enough. These are progressives, like myself, who were severely disappointed when the Republicans and blue dogs ripped the public insurance option out of the bill.

These progressives would have liked to go to a single-payer system of health insurance, but were willing to settle for creation of a public option to compete with private insurance and drive down costs for everyone. The loss of both single-payer and a public option signaled a failure for real reform.

If the public option cannot be revived in the bill's final form, it will be very hard for Democrats to re-energize that 16% of the population -- which they must do before the 2010 elections.

(NOTE -- the above chart shows health care spending as a percentage of GDP)

Poll Says Palin Not Capable Of Presidency

A new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows that despite all the media hoopla, Americans really don't have a very high opinion of Sarah Palin. Although she has an admiring cadre of support among the right-wing teabagger crowd, the huge majority of Americans just don't see her as capable of a higher office such as the presidency.

The CNN/Opinion Research Poll asked 1,014 Americans between November 13th and 15th whether they thought some top politicians were capable of being president. The sampling error is plus or minus 3 points. Remember, the question was not whether they would vote for the person, but simply is the person capable of performing the job.

The five politicians in the poll were Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. Of the five, Sarah Palin finished dead last. Only 28% of those polled said Palin was capable of being president.

Even many Republicans don't believe she is qualified for the job. About 54% thought she was capable, while 44% of them said she was not. But she didn't fare nearly so well among independents, where only 29% said she was qualified to be president. About 90% of Democrats said she was unqualified.

Here are the percentages who thought they were qualified to be president for all five politicians:

Sarah Palin...............28%

Mike Huckabee...............43%

Mitt Romney...............50%

Joe Biden...............50%

Hillary Clinton...............67%

It looks like if Palin is serious about running for the presidency, she has a lot of convincing to do -- even among her fellow Republicans. Both Romney and Huckabee were judged as qualified to be president by 63% of Republicans. That's a full 9 points higher than Palin.

With numbers like these, I doubt if Palin could get the Republican nomination. But if she could somehow manage it, it would be a real gift for the Democrats.

Republicans Not Very Popular

The Republicans are counting on taking some seats back from the Democrats in next year's elections. And they seem to think the way to do it is just to say no to everything President Obama proposes.

The party out of power does usually take back a few seats in the mid-term elections, but frankly, it looks to me like the Republicans are bound and determined to change that tradition. How do they think opposing a well-liked president is going to increase their popularity?

They'd better change their policy of being nothing but the "party of no". If we are to believe recent polls, it's simply not working. While President Obama still retains majority support, the public perception of Republicans just keeps getting worse.

Take the CNN/Opinion Research poll that was just released yesterday for example. The poll was taken October 16-18, and the sampling error is plus or minus 3 points. Here are the numbers regarding the public's perception of both Republicans and Democrats:

Republicans..........favorable 36%..........unfavorable 54%

Democrats............favorable 53%..........unfavorable 41%

Those are not good numbers for Republicans. You can subtract the full 3-point sampling error from the Republican unfavorable rating, and there is still a majority of people with an unfavorable view of the party. Also, you can subtract that same three points from the Democrats favorable rating, and still half of all Americans view them favorably.

Obviously, just being the "party of no" is not working for the Republican Party. If they don't turn these numbers around soon, the 2010 mid-term elections could be another disaster for the Republicans. If their numbers fall much further, they'll enter Whig Party territory (and you know what happened to that party).

The only thing saving Republicans right now are the blue dog Democrats. A majority of the American people like President Obama, and they also want to see the president successfully pass health care reform legislation. They know the Republicans won't support the legislation, and their becoming disillusioned with the Democrats (especially those siding with the Republicans).

The failure to support the president and pass health care reform legislation has the public upset with both parties in Congress. When asked if they approve of the way Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress are doing their jobs, here are the numbers:

Republicans..........approve 33%..........disapprove 66%

Democrats............approve 38%..........disapprove 59%

Right now, I don't think I'd want to be a Republican or a blue dog in the 2010 elections.

Some Poor Numbers For Palin

Since she resigned her governorship near the end of June this year, pundits on the left and right have been arguing about whether it was a smart or dumb move. On the left, they're saying it just shows she's a quitter. On the right, some call it a brilliant move to position herself for the 2012 presidential nomination.

But the important thing is not what the pundits think, but what the ordinary citizens (voters) think. A new poll answers that question. A Marist survey released yesterday shows that 61% of the people think it was a bad political move. About 15% thought it would help her future political aspirations. About 11% said it would make no difference, and 13% said they didn't know if it was good or bad. The most surpriising thing is that a majority of Republicans said it was a bad political move (51%).

It also turns out that more people in the poll view Palin unfavorably than favorably. Around 43% of those polled had an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 37% had a favorable opinion. About 20% had no opinion.

Those results pretty much mirror a CNN / Opinion Research poll at the beginning of August. That poll showed Palin with a 48% unfavorable view to a 39% favorable view. About 13% in that poll viewed her neither favorably or unfavorably.

These are not great numbers for someone who wants to be president. In fact, CNN's polling director said her numbers "... show her just about as popular as Dan Quayle was a few months after the Bush/Quayle ticket went down to defeat in 1992."

She's got a lot of work to do before 2012!