Saturday, September 27, 2014

More Bad News For The GOP Regarding Obamacare


After their failure to keep the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) from becoming law, the congressional  Republicans told a whole stack of lies about it. Among that stack of lies was the claim that Obamacare would drive up health care costs -- both for health care insurance premiums, and for actual health care itself. We already know that insurance premiums are not rising as the GOP predicted. They are going down in some states, and rising slower than in the past in other states -- thanks to Obamacare.

Now we have evidence that shows Obamacare may well be working as hoped to keep medical care costs down, instead of driving up costs as the GOP claimed would happen. The chart above was made with information from the Department of Health and Human Services (Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation). Their recent report shows that the uncompensated care costs (UCC) incurred by hospitals is slated to drop by about $5.7 billion this year in all states, and the reason for the drop in UCC is due to more people having health insurance due to Obamacare.

The biggest reason for this drop in uncompensated costs is due to more people being covered by Medicaid. Hospitals used to have to eat the cost of treating these people in their emergency rooms (and sometimes in their care units). These costs would normally be passed on to other patients in the form of higher overall hospital charges -- which would drive up the co-pay of patients and the costs paid by insurance companies (which would drive up the premium price to customers).

That's what would happen in private hospitals. In public hospitals, the prices would also rise to help pay for the hospital's UCC, but part of the UCC would also be paid for through higher city, county, or regional taxes. That means Obamacare is not only helping to keep hospital costs down, but also helping to keep the tax burden from rising.

We know that most of the reduction in hospital UCC is due to expansion of Medicaid, because 74% of the reduction in UCC has happened in states that have expanded Medicaid. But costs in states that did not expand Medicaid also went down (about 26% of the reduction in hospital UCC happened in these states) -- and that was also due to Obamacare.

It comes form people who could not afford insurance before Obamacare. Since they didn't have insurance, a large medical bill would bankrupt these people and cause the hospital to have to eat the cost of their care. These people made too much to qualify for Medicaid under Obamacare, but the new law gave them a subsidy to help them buy insurance -- and since they now have health insurance, the hospitals are getting paid for the medical care they provide to these people.

Once again, the Republicans are exposed as being liars about Obamacare. Obamacare has helped hospitals to keep their costs for patients down by making sure they get paid for a higher percentage of those patients. And while the hospitals located in states that have expanded Medicaid are seeing the biggest drop in uncompensated care costs, Obamacare has also reduced those costs in other states.

I still believe we should institute a government-run single-payer health insurance system. It would be more effective in both covering everyone and keeping medical costs down. But it is now an undisputed fact that Obamacare has been a huge improvement over what we had before it was passed.

Buying Denial

Political Cartoon is by Mike Luckovich in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

A Green Party Comment On Our Newest Unnecessary War


The following response to the U.S. starting a new (and unnecessary) war with the bombings in both Iraq and Syria was written by Green Party Shadow Cabinet member Steve Breyman (pictured) on September 25th. In it he gives some peaceful solutions to the new crisis, and tells us why the Obama administration feels like they had no choice but to go back to war. It's interesting reading.

Every national peace group (large and small, new and old, religious and secular) opposes Barack Obama's war against ISIS in Iraq, and its recent extension to Syria. Their opposition extends to Obama's Congress-sanctioned arming of "moderate" Syrian rebels (for which legislators found half a billion dollars).
The anti-war movement's antagonism is sturdy and reasoned. It's based on irrefutable historical, political, economic and cultural analysis focused on the past thirteen years of bloody, wasteful, failed war on Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan and Yemen, Libya and Somalia. Find some here, here, and here.
The groups don't merely oppose more war. They also advance positive agendas of alternatives to bombing. United for Peace and Justice (an umbrella coalition under which many U.S. peace groups cohere) recommends five "better choices": (1) make diplomacy and humanitarian assistance the priority; (2) seek improved relations with Iran to end the fighting in the region; (3) work through the United Nations to halt the flow of financing and weapons to ISIS; (4) re-start UN-directed negotiations to end the civil war in Syria; (5) mobilize to solve the real problems in the region—poverty, hunger, drought, joblessness.
David Swanson of World Beyond War (and Secretary of Peace in the Green Shadow Cabinet) has these suggestions as to what "What to Do About ISIS": (1) stop bombing; (2) stop shipping arms; (3) be skeptical of humanitarian claims; (4) apologize to ISIS leader al-Baghdadi for brutalizing him in Abu Ghraib; (5) make restitution for damages inflicted on Iraq; (6) apologize for advancing war in Syria; (7) begin withdrawing U.S. forces from overseas; (8) work through the United Nations; (9) have the U.S. join the International Criminal Court, etc.
Sound as this advice is, policymakers are unable to take it. For Obama, Congress and the Pentagon, there is no alternative to airstrikes on the Islamic State, and to arming Syrian rebel moderates. Add the structure of U.S. national security policy—its institutions, practices and tools—to alliances with authoritarian regimes, past mistakes and 'policy momentum,' corporate power, the ideologies and worldviews of officials, and the lack of genuine American democracy. The sum of these addends restricts decision-makers' options to war, and more war.
Consider the five-point program—"How to Combat ISIS Without Bombs"—put forward by Win Without War (WWW; another coalition that includes Global Exchange, Pax Christi, Tikkun, Peace Action, Greenpeace, NOW, and numerous other groups):
•  Hit ISIS economically
• Crack down on ISIS's weapons supply
• Address political grievances of local populations
• Lead a multinational international response
• Provide humanitarian aid.
Like the recommendations above, policies predicated on these alternatives are vastly superior to blind plunging ahead with airstrikes and weapons deliveries. Each, however, runs up against deep-grained U.S. foreign policy standard operating procedures and non-military options foreclosed by past mistakes.
ISIS's Finances
To "hit ISIS economically" requires cracking down on those who finance the organization and the banks that store the loot. The War on Terror spawned several new offices to restrict the funding of designated terrorist organizations and individuals across DC in the Departments of Homeland Security, State, Commerce and Treasury. This effort (unlike that aimed at Mexican drug cartels) made some inroads (it's hard to independently know how significant), but not without bogus "material support for terrorism" charges being leveled against several charitable organizations and generous individuals. In the face of strong paper regulations forbidding banks to service terrorists and other organized criminals, Wall Street averages about a major scandal a year since 9/11.
Two factors complicate the mission of squeezing terrorist finances: (1) considerable funding for jihadi groups comes from individual citizens of erstwhile U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf (a problem dating from the proxy war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan), although there's little or no evidence that ISIS is dependent on foreign donors; and (2) ISIS is to a large extent self-financing.
U.S. efforts to get Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil sheikdoms to shut down the money funnel have run into obstacles at the very highest levels of government; presidents and secretaries of state are unwilling to jeopardize relations with the hydrocarbon kingdoms over the matter. ISIS's wealth (some estimates have it as high as $500 million) is the result of kidnappings for ransom, robberies, protection rackets, and illicit sales of Syrian and Iraqi oil. The group is said to demand 10-20% of receipts from businesses in the towns and cities it controls.
Win Without War suggests targeting the "Turkish, Iraqi, and other oil dealers who are purchasing the oil on the black market"—a sensible course of action—but Turkish authority (let alone U.S.) does not extend far along its 750 mile border with Syria and Iraq where smuggling of all sorts has been a way of life for decades (Turkey's war against its Kurds made licit livings difficult to make). And the estimates of $1-2 million per day for ISIS coffers from oil sales appear wildly overblown.
Restrict ISIS's Weapons Supply
Win Without War wisely recommends that President Obama pressure Turkey to restrict the flow of weapons and foreign fighters across its border with Syria. Obama recently talked with the new Turkish president about doing just that. And he convinced the UN Security Council to criminalize participation in armed jihad. But as with crude oil smuggling—and the trafficking of contraband over the U.S.-Mexico border—attempts to interdict the flow of militants and weaponry across long, rugged international boundaries against the efforts of determined professional smugglers leads to hugely expensive, frequently brutal, only partially effective, metastasized and militarized border control-industrial complexes. Consider too that weapons (and oil) smuggling is highly lucrative and leads to official corruption and the obstacles become clear.
That considerable heavy U.S. weaponry—including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery—already fell into Islamic State's hands following the Iraqi Army's humiliating defeat in Mosul (and more recent defeats in Anbar) at the hands of what were once lightly armed extremists did not deter Obama or his bipartisan supporters on Capitol Hill from deciding to send more lethal assistance, and to train handpicked Syrian rebels in its use. They were not deterred either by the knowledge that some unknown but nontrivial number of formerly "moderate" Syrian insurgents now fight for ISIS and other non-preferred networks.
Cruise missile attacks and bombing sorties (including by the boondoggle F-22, it's first use "in combat") appear to politicians and bureaucrats the superior option; they supply deep gratification for those who see them as legitimate tools, that sense of satisfaction anti-smuggling efforts experience rarely.
Local Political Grievances
Win Without War would have Obama attempt to heal the wounds inflicted on Syrian and Iraqi Sunnis by their Alawite and Shi'a dominated governments so as to deprive ISIS of local support. They point to the "Anbar Awakening"—where the U.S. Army used suitcases of $100 bills to sway tribal militia leaders from their support of al Qaeda in Iraq—as a model.
The U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, de-Baathification, and bungled reconstruction paved the way for Shi'a dominance of Iraqi politics. Washington appears to understand the need for the Iraqi political system to fairly include Sunnis. This is why John Kerry engineered the replacement of Nouri al Maliki by Haidar al Abbadi. But years of support for the sectarian al-Maliki whose policies deeply alienated Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds will not be easy to undo. And the prospects for resolution of the Syrian civil war, called for by WWW, seem lower at present than they did earlier this year at the failed peace talks in Montreux.
Washington can't even sort out its own "local political grievances;" fixing the mess it made of Iraqi politics is inconceivable. It's far easier just to bomb the bastards.
Multilateral International Response
WWW suggests building a coalition that would reduce the recruitment of Westerners to ISIS rather than one that supports U.S. airstrikes against the militants. The peace activists understand ISIS thrives because of conflicts in Syria and Iraq "fueled by foreign interests," and thus urge Obama to involve "all the parties including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others."
The War on Terror-Industrial Complex prefers to spy on "radical" imams and mosques to reforming its foreign policy or engaging with communities from which potential Western jihadis come. U.S. foreign policy has worked to isolate Tehran since 1979, ratcheting up the pressure of sanctions periodically as during the last few years over Iran's nuclear research program. John Kerry can't make up his mind whether to include Iran in the anti-ISIS coalition; he shut Iran out of the Paris conference he organized but then backtracked within a day or two muttering about a possible role for Iran against the Wahabis.
Humanitarian Aid
WWW recognizes that the Obama administration has provided more assistance to Syrian refugees than any other government. But U.S. aid has been no where close to what's needed to meet the needs of the millions—1.4 million in tiny Lebanon alone—short of food, clothing, shelter, medicine and schools. Elected national Americans leaders are always able to find enough money to wage war, but never able to find enough to alleviate misery.
The U.S. did next to nothing on its own to aid the starving Palestinians in the Yarmouk refugee camp outside Damascus. And the U.S. has failed to support the democratic Self-Administration Zones in northern Syria, even though as Michael Beer of Nonviolence International reports, these "autonomous governments are secular, have a 40 percent quota for women in leadership positions, and are committed to a united Syria and a pluralist Syria."
At the same time, U.S. humanitarian aid is considerably greater than that provided by its Gulf Arab coalition partners. Rather than solicit support for its bombing campaign, the U.S. ought to cobble together sufficient donors to meet the needs of the innocents displaced by war in Iraq and Syria.
Conclusion 
Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress just made the same mistake in regard to Islamic State that George Bush and the U.S. Congress made regarding al Qaeda following 9/11: they 'declared war' on a smallish bunch of brutal criminals thereby elevating their status and opening the flood gates of recruitment after being attacked by the Great Satan. They stepped right into the trap set for them by al Baghdadi: the beheading videos were designed to elicit a violent response from Washington. It worked: ISIS is now the organization of choice for aspiring jihadis.
Obama and Congress are unable to choose diplomacy and humanitarian aid over war with ISIS for several interrelated reasons. First, most of those who make and implement U.S. national security policy have distorted and fantastical worldviews. They believe the U.S. can act as both world policeman and benign hegemon. They justify most any level of violence and collateral damage in service to policy ends—"destroy ISIS"—impossible to achieve. They see U.S. bombs as problem solvers, and disregard all contradictory evidence.
Second, today's policy has implications—some very long lasting—for tomorrow's, as yesterday's has for today's. Policies gather momentum and lose malleability over time. Policies enroll supporters, generate enormous sums for contractors, and shunt aside dissenters. Decisions made, weapons bought, money spent, bureaucracies shaped during the War on Terror echo into the future. U.S. policy has become little more than a New Enemy Creation Process. Even if Obama (and it's clear he does not) or the next president wanted to make a clean break, to finally bring an end to the War on Terror, it would, and will be, a very difficult undertaking.
Third, the failure of Congress and the American people to rein in presidential war making powers, to challenge even the serial illegal actions of successive presidents, reduces the prospects for the stem to stern overhaul of U.S. policy necessary to follow the sane advice of peace groups. Fourth, the interests vested in the War on Terror-Industrial-Complex represent some of the most powerful political-economic actors in the country; their hold over policy cannot be underestimated.
Surprise as to the lopsided authorization for Obama's direct war against ISIS and indirect war against al Assad evaporates in light of this analysis. Reasonable observers may have thought that thirteen years of experience, pain, shame and waste would be sufficient to at least teach officials what to avoid this time. Yet here they go again complete with deployment of "boots on the ground" regardless of the president's claims to the contrary.

Latte Salute

Political Cartoon is by Nick Anderson in the Houston Chronicle.

What's Our Excuse ?


Friday, September 26, 2014

Hideous Deformity


Majority Says A 3rd Party Is Needed (But Don't Mean It)


This chart was made from information in a continuing survey by the Gallup Poll -- with the last survey being taken between September 4th and 7th of a random national sample of 1,017 adults, and has a margin of error of 4 points. It seems to show that the desire for a third political party is currently high in this country. That is what 58% of the general public says, along with 71% of Independents, 47% of Democrats, and 46% of Republicans.

I have to take this with a grain of salt though. Why? because there are already a plethora of third parties in the United States -- and two of them are regularly on the ballot in most, if not all, states. They are the Green Party (established in 1991) and the Libertarian Party (established in 1971). These parties offer voters an alternative both on the left and the right of the political spectrum.

In addition, there are other political parties that will appear on the ballot in some states -- the Socialist Party USA (established in 1973), the Constitution Party (established in 1999), and the American Independent Party (established in 1967). The Socialist Party is to the left of the Greens and Democrats, while the Constitution and American Independent parties are to the right of Libertarians and Republicans.

So there are a wide range of third parties in the United States, representing a wide spectrum of political opinion. Note on the chart though that there have been other years recently where the desire for a third party was high (notably in 2007 and 2010). What happened in those years? The Greens and Libertarians finished in medium to high single-digits, and the other third parties got only a tiny percentage of the vote (1% or less). Most Americans, while saying a third party was needed, wound up voting for the Democrats and Republicans -- and I expect the same thing will happen this year.

Personally, I think it would be a good thing to have several powerful political parties (like most other nations do). If the Greens and Libertarians were able to get votes nearly equal to the Democrats and Republicans, and elect representatives to the House and Senate, it would be a good thing for the United States. There would be a much better flow of ideas about about how to solve the nations problems, and Congress would have to compromise to get anything done (which is not a bad thing). But regardless of what Americans say in a survey, they are not yet ready to abandon our two-party system.

So what does this poll mean then (since voters are not really ready to vote for a third party, even though they are available on the ballot)? I believe it is just indicative of widespread voter anger with the government in Washington, especially the anger at the inability of Congress to compromise and fix our economic problems (high unemployment, falling median wage, poverty minimum wage, shrinking middle class, faltering GDP, etc.). The voters are mad, and they are in a definite anti-incumbent mood. While voters are not likely to vote for any third party this year, that anti-incumbent mood should scare the hell out of elected officials in competitive districts -- because it mean many of them might not have a job next year (at least until Wall Street hires them as lobbyists).



The Dilemma

Political Cartoon is by Joe Heller in the Green Bay Press-Gazette.

Troubling Numbers In Texas Governor's Race


The chart above is from a poll that is nearly a month old. It is the NY Times / CBS News / YouGov Poll that was taken between August 18th and September 2nd of 4,159 Texas adults, and has a 2% margin of error. I should have brought it to you earlier, but I just flat missed it. There has been a debate between Davis and Abbott since the survey was taken (and another more widely shown debate will take place in a few days), so these numbers could have changed.

I find a couple of aspects of this survey very troubling. First is that it shows Abbott getting 43% of the Hispanic vote. That's about 15 points higher than Romney got in 2012 (and would even be slightly higher than Bush got). I find it hard to believe, but if it is true that Democrats have only a 10 point margin among Hispanics then the Democrats are in trouble. They need to get a substantial margin among Hispanics (and Blacks) to offset the huge margin Republicans hold among Whites.

But even more troubling is the women's vote. The survey has women splitting their vote between the two candidates (with the 1 point margin for Abbott being within the margin of error). Are their enough fundamentalist women in Texas (who are happy with being second-class citizens) to give Abbott half of the women's vote? If so, then Davis is in real trouble. She needs to get a substantial majority of the women's vote to even stand a chance.

I would like to see another poll taken after the statewide televised debate to be held in a few days. These numbers, especially for women and Hispanics, must change -- or the Democrats in Texas are going to have a tough night on November 4th.

Koch Influence

Political Cartoon is by Mike Keefe at intoon.com.

Most Americans See Economy As Unfair To Small Business


When the Republicans instituted their "Trickle-Down" economic policy a little over 30 years ago, they fooled Americans into believing that their economic policy would be good for everyone -- the giant corporations, small businesses, and workers. It hasn't worked out that way.

The policies they instituted were great for the giant corporations, but workers were left out in the cold -- as productivity increases were no longer shared with them and their wages stagnated (actually losing ground when inflation is accounted for). And how are the small businesses faring? Not too well, because they depend on those workers having money to spend -- and with stagnant wages and high unemployment, the workers just don't have as much money to spend as they used to have.

The giant corporations are doing well. They are making record profits (and paying very little in taxes). But small business owners, like workers, are still struggling to recover from the Republican recession (and they must still pay their share of taxes). It turns out that policies that are good for giant corporations are not good for small businesses (who don't get the tax breaks, loopholes, and subsidies offered to the corporations).

Fortunately, the American public is starting to realize the U.S. economy is no longer fair. Previous polls I have posted about show they think the economy is unfair to workers (and the poor). Now there is a new poll that shows a majority of Americans think this economy, constructed by Republicans, is also unfair to small business owners. About 53% say it is unfair, while 7% say it is very fair and 30% say it is somewhat fair. Those numbers show me it is time to toss out the Republican economic policies, and re-institute economic policies that would be fair to everyone (including workers and small business owners).

The chart above was made from info in a new Rasmussen Poll -- done on September 17th and 18th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

The Issue The Saudi's Care About

Political Cartoon is by Cameron (Cam) Cardow in The Ottawa Citizen.

Top 1% And Median Incomes Of The 50 States



These two images are from Business Insider. The map at the top shows the minimum income required in each state to put a person in the top 1% of income earners. You can click on the map to get a larger image that's easier to read. The list below it shows the median income of each state (and the District of Columbia). The median income is that point where half of the state's residents earn more, and the other half earns less.

Note that most of the reddest states fall in the bottom half of states in median income. This exposes Republican claims of being better for the economy than Democrats as nothing but a lie. Also note that the Republican "economic miracle" state of Texas ranks just 25th in median income (behind nearly every blue state). Texas has only elected Republican statewide officials in over 20 years.

The rich do very well in Texas, since the state's regressive tax system means they pay a much smaller percentage of their income in taxes. Those making under the median income aren't so lucky, since they pay a huge percentage of their income in taxes. In addition, Texas has both the largest number and largest percentage of minimum wage (or below) workers in the nation.

When are the people in this country going to wake up and realize that Republicans only care about the rich and the corporations -- and all of their economic policies are slanted to favor them.

War Transformation

Political Cartoon is by Daryl Cagle in cagle.com.