November May Not Be Bad For Democrats

For a while now, many on the right (and some on the left) have been predicting that the coming election in November will be a disaster for Democrats. Some have even gone so far as to predict a return to power for Republicans. They say that the energized voters on the right and dissatisfaction with Democrats will propel the Republicans to victory.

But they may well be in the process of counting their chickens before they have hatched. A new poll suggests they might want to wait until November 3rd before planning any victory celebrations. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll was done between March 23rd and 26th (with a margin of error of 3 points), and it shows the Democrats have closed the "energized voter" gap.

While voters are currently split on whether the new health care reform laws are a good thing or not (well within the margin of error), the poll shows that the Democrats have now become as "energized" as the Republicans in anticipation of the coming election. While 76% of Republicans say they are enthusiastic about voting in November, about 74% of Democrats say the same thing.

This means the election is probably going to favor the party that can convince independents of their competence and vision for the future. But the poll didn't stop there. They also asked voters which party they thought could handle a list of issues better (and this question included independents). The Democrats came out ahead on nearly every issue. Here are the issues and numbers:

ISSUE.........................DEM................REP

The economy.............44%.................36%

Health care................47%.................34%

Immigration..............38%.................35%

Afghanistan...............43%..................33%

Budget deficit............43%.................35%

Taxes..........................41%..................39%

Terrorism..................37%.................43%

Energy policy............49%.................32%

Those figures look pretty good for Democrats. Although most voters are unhappy with Congress, people still think the Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on most things. When asked if the election were held now would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress, 47% said they would vote for a Democrat and 43% said they would vote for a Republican.

It also doesn't look like the obstructionist tactics of the Republican party is working as they had hoped it would. About 63% of voters said the Republicans had not made a good-faith effort to cooperate with Obama and the Democrats, while 47% said Obama and the Democrats had not made such an effort.

Of course, the election is still seven months away, and lots could happen before then. I believe the driving force in the next election will be the economy. If the economy makes a turn for the worse, that would give Republicans the advantage. If it improves, Democrats will look even better.

Don't get me wrong. I believe the Republicans will probably pick up a few seats. It is normal (and almost traditional) for the party out of power to gain a few seats in an off-year election. But I don't expect the Democrats to lose their majority in either the House or Senate.