Democrat Gets Boost In Florida Senate Race

The senate race in Florida just got a whole lot more interesting. That's because the current governor, Charlie Crist, dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination and announced he will be running as an independent for Florida's U.S. Senate seat. He did this because the Florida Republican Party has been taken over by the teabaggers, and it was becoming more obvious each day that the Republican nomination will go to Marco Rubio (even though he is currently under investigation for credit card abuse).

This sets up a three-way race between Democrat Kendrick Meek (pictured), Republican Marco Rubio and independent Charlie Crist. Crist is not leaving the Republican Party -- just running as an independent in the senate race. The race is interesting because it could be a close race since all three candidates have a natural constituency. Rubio appeals to the right-wingers and teabaggers, while Meek appeals to progressives and Democrats, and Crist is hoping to attract moderate Republicans and independents.

I believe this improves the chances of Kendrick Meek to win the race. He is probably the least well-known of the three candidates, and it was going to be very difficult for him to get a clear majority of the votes -- but now he just has to get a plurality (a higher percentage of the vote than the other candidates).

It looks like the race hinges on Florida's independent voters. For Crist to win, he must get nearly all of the independents to add to his moderate Republicans. If a significant portion of the independents go to Meek or Rubio, then they will win. I really think Crist's move to run as an independent hurts Rubio, because the moderate Republicans will now have an option to voting for an ultra-right-wing candidate. It also gives independents two options to avoid voting for the teabagger candidate (and I believe most will choose one of those two options).

I was worrying about Meek's chances to win, but I now think his chances have dramatically improved. If he can just add 25-30% of the independents to his Democratic vote, then he will probably win, and I think that is very doable.