As we have discussed before on this blog, there is a proposition (#19) on the California ballot this November that would legalize marijuana and allow it to be taxed and regulated. If passed it would make California the first state in the union to legalize marijuana, and could well spur some other states to do the same. Now that the question has finally made it to the ballot the question is "Does it have a chance to be passed?"
Right now, it looks like the answer to that question is YES. Survey USA took a poll of 602 likely voters in California between August 9th and August 11th. The poll has a margin of error of 4.1%. Here's how the poll came out for all voters:
Certain to vote YES..........50%
Certain to vote NO..........40%
Not certain..........10%
Right now the YES votes are in the lead and it is by more than the margin of error. There is still 10% undecided, but the YES camp would only need a small fraction of them to push the measure over the top. Equally interesting to me was how the YES/NO forces broke down demographically. Here are those numbers:
MEN
Yes..........55%
No..........38%
Undecided..........7%
WOMEN
Yes..........45%
No..........43%
Undecided..........12%
UNDER 50
Yes..........55%
No..........38%
Undecided..........7%
50 AND OVER
Yes..........45%
No..........43%
Undecided..........12%
REPUBLICAN
Yes..........36%
No..........57%
Undecided..........7%
DEMOCRAT
Yes..........60%
No..........30%
Undecided..........10%
INDEPENDENT
Yes..........53%
No..........33%
Undecided..........14%
COLLEGE GRAD
Yes..........49%
No..........41%
Undecided..........9%
NOT COLLEGE GRAD
Yes..........51%
No..........38%
Undecided..........11%
MAKES UNDER $40,000
Yes..........54%
No..........35%
Undecided..........11%
MAKES $40,000 to $80,000
Yes..........44%
No..........48%
Undecided..........8%
MAKES OVER $80,000
Yes..........57%
No..........35%
Undecided..........8%
Of course while the numbers look good right now, the real outcome will be determined by who shows up at the polls in November. The numbers in every poll have shown that a majority of Californians are in favor of legalizing marijuana, but that won't mean much if these people don't show up to vote this Fall. Until then, we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed.
No comments:
Post a Comment
ANONYMOUS COMMENTS WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED. And neither will racist,homophobic, or misogynistic comments. I do not mind if you disagree, but make your case in a decent manner.