Romney Leading Florida - Losing Nationally

It looks like Republican voters, at least in South Carolina and Florida, love "attack-dog" politics. In the waning days of the GOP campaign in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich unleashed his inner attack-dog and snatched the primary away from Mitt Romney (who was leading there immediately after New Hampshire). Now the tables have been turned.

After winning the South Carolina primary, Gingrich jumped out to a substantial lead in Florida. But while Gingrich turned the heat down in the last two Florida debates (probably thinking he was protecting a lead), Romney did the opposite -- releasing his own inner attack-dog and going after Gingrich in the debates. And it looks like it is working. The last few days have seen polls showing Romney is regaining the lead in Florida.

Now two new Florida polls have been released that show Romney is firmly back in the lead. Here are the results from those two polls:

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL
Mitt Romney...............38%
Newt Romney...............29%
Ron Paul...............14%
Rick Santorum...............12%
Other/Undecided...............7%

SUNSHINE STATE NEWS POLL
Mitt Romney...............40%
Newt Gingrich...............31%
Rick Santorum...............12%
Ron Paul...............9%
Other/Undecided...............7%

But even if Romney does win in Florida, it probably won't give him the substantial leg-up in the race he was originally hoping for. That's because the GOP has declared that any state holding a primary (or caucus) before April must assign delegates proportionally or lose half of their delegates. Since the Florida GOP has decided to maintain their winner-take-all status, that means they will only have 50 delegates to award the winner instead of their full 99.

Winning 50 delegates would put Romney back in the lead in the delegate count, but it would not be an insurmountable lead. And Gingrich is maintaining a nationwide lead over Romney -- a lead larger than the margin of error in the polls. Here are the two latest national polls for the GOP race:

GALLUP POLL
Newt Gingrich...............32%
Mitt Romney...............24%
Ron Paul...............14%
Rick Santorum...............13%

NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL POLL
Newt Gingrich...............37%
Mitt Romney...............28%
Rick Santorum...............18%
Ron Paul...............12%

There is still a good possibility that this race could be decided at a brokered Republican convention. It is likely that Paul will do well in the caucus states, and could even top his expected percentage. His supporters are true believers and he has a good track record of getting them out to attend caucuses. Add that to Gingrich's current popularity among teabaggers and evangelicals (strong in the South and Midwest), and it is possible that Romney won't be able to get more than half the delegates.