Generic Congressional Preferences

I think I posted the overall results of this recent Public Policy Polling survey (conducted October 4th through 6th of 1,000 nationwide voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error) a few days ago, showing 46% of voters currently prefer a Democrat for Congress while 41% prefer a Republican. But I thought you might like to see a demographic breakdown, showing just where the support is for each party.

It comes as no surprise that young voters, Blacks, Hispanics, and women show a significant preference for a Democrat -- or that Whites and men show a small preference for a Republican. Those all reflect the voting patterns of the 2012 election. The real surprise, and one that should worry Republicans, is that two groups that preferred them only months ago now prefer a Democrat -- those over 65 and Independents. And those are two groups the Republicans must do well with to maintain their majority in the House.

As I have said before, some effective gerrymandering done by the GOP in 2010 will protect many of the Republicans holding office. But it won't protect all of them. The Democrats only need 17 more seats to flip the House over to their control, and there are plenty enough competitive seats to allow that to happen.

The Republicans have damaged themselves with their recent actions, and they have a lot of damage control to accomplish -- and waiting until after the primaries to do it just may be too late.