Young Voters Provide A Portrait Of The GOP's Future

The chart above shows the political preference of young voters (ages 18 to 29) over the last 20 years. Note that as the Republican Party has become more extreme in both political and social views, these younger voters have trended toward the Democratic Party -- and currently the Democrats enjoy an 18 point advantage over the Republicans with young voters.

This gives us a glimpse of the GOP's future -- as these young voters grow older and replace today's senior voters (who show a small preference for the Republican Party). Some of you may think this will change as these young voters grow older -- that they will grow more conservative. But the chart below shows that probably is a false hope. Note that among Whites the gap between the parties is much closer (only a 2 point gap), and that is unlikely to change.

The reason the young voters are trending toward the Democrats is because that generation has a much larger percentage of Non-Whites (more than any preceding generation). And the percentage of Non-Whites will continue to grow in future generations, as this country steadily marches toward the day when Whites will be the voting minority. This current portrait of young voter party preference will be the portrait of the entire electorate in a few years.

The Republican Party could change this by moderating their views, rhetoric, and policies -- but that won't happen as long as the teabaggers and religious fundamentalists control the party (as they currently do in most states). Some believe the Republicans will eventually return to being a more moderate party. I'm not so sure. If they can't kick the teabaggers and fun dies out of power, they will eventually go the way of the Whigs -- and a new and more moderate party will have to be formed.

We'll know in a few years if the GOP can be saved, or will be replaced -- and it will be an interesting party battle to watch.

These charts were made from yearly surveys of about 18,000 nationwide adults by the Gallup Poll. The margin of error for 18 to 29 year-olds is between 1 and 2 points.