The top chart was made from information contained in the new CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll of the three early-voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina). It's some pretty good news for Bernie Sanders. He leads Clinton by 10 points in Iowa and 22 points in New Hampshire.
The question is, if those states actually vote that way, will it change the national scene? Maybe. But not if South Carolina doesn't go along -- and right now, Clinton is still leading Sanders by by 23 points there (doubling the support of Sanders).
And another survey, the ABC News / Washington Post Poll, shows Clinton still has a solid lead nationally -- maintaining an 18 point lead over Sanders (among registered voters). But that is with Joe Biden in the race (and it's increasingly looking like he's going to stay out of it). Take Biden out of the equation, and the picture looks even better for Clinton -- giving her a 24.7 point lead over Sanders.
While Sanders has been doing very well in New Hampshire and now in Iowa, he seems to be spinning his wheels in the other states. Will this change after the first debate? It could. But I suspect that all Clinton needs to do is not embarrass herself in the debate, and she is experienced enough to pull that off.
Sanders' supporters are celebrating the new early state numbers -- and well they should. He's doing much better than I ever thought he would. But he's still got a long way to go to challenge Clinton on the national level.
NOTE -- Neither poll gave a margin of error for Democrats only.
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