The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll -- done between July 24th and 26th of a national sample of 1,997 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.
In past elections, it has been important that the presidential candidate pick the right running mate. In 1960, John Kennedy needed a Southerner to balance his ticket to get broad support across the country. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson needed a northern liberal to do the same. The vice-presidential picks in those elections worked well -- and both Kennedy and Johnson scored election victories.
It has also been important that the right choice for veep be competent. In 2008, John McCain chose an unknown to be his veep, and she turned out to be a disaster. It seriously hurt his campaign, and he lost.
2020 is different. As the chart above shows, it probably doesn't matter who Joe Biden chooses. The poll looked at 12 different women (Biden has said he would choose a woman) that are believed to be being considered by Biden. Not that the numbers are very close for every one of them to run with Biden. Some are not as well known as others, but none of them would hurt (or help) Biden.
Why is this?
It is because this election is nothing more than a referendum on Donald Trump. Voters either want to keep Trump in the White House or kick him out of it -- and it really doesn't matter who the Democratic presidential or vice-presidential nominee is.
Trump would like it to be an election of opposing ideologies or cultural values, but it isn't. Voters will either love Trump and want to keep him, or they will consider him to be incompetent and corrupt and want to dump him. And the only way to dump Trump is to vote Democratic.
For political junkies like myself, Biden's choice will be interesting. But it likely doesn't matter to most voters.
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