Trump's First Tariff "Deal" Was Just A Public Relations Stunt

 

Trump announced on Thursday that he had negotiated a huge deal with the United Kingdom. It was supposedly the first deal of many to come. 

But he lied. It wasn't a deal at all. No final agreement had been reached. And no signatures were on a completed deal. It was just a general understanding that the two nations would work on the details of a broad agreement in the coming months. In other words, it was just a PR stunt.

Opposition has been growing to Trump's tariffs, and doubts were growing that Trump knew what he was doing with his trade war. This was just an effort to try and fool the American public into thinking his crazy tariff scheme was on the road to success. It isn't!

And if it had actually been a deal, it wasn't a very good one. Britain got almost nothing - just a removal of tariffs on expensive British cars and steel, while the 10% tariffs will continue on everything else. It's not a good deal for Americans either, since it will just feed inflation on goods imported from Britain.

One troubling aspect is the 10% tariff remaining. Trump has called it a minimal baseline tariff - implicating that the 10% tariffs he placed on nearly all countries will remain in place - even if "deals" can be reached with all those countries.

This was a failure for the "great negotiator". Only the most fervent MAGA faithful could believe otherwise.

U.S., U.K., France & Germany Public Want Economic Reform

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They come from a survey done in November and December of 2020 of about 1,000 adults in each of these countries -- United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The margin of error is around 3.7 points.

French-German-U.K. Opinion Of U.S. Rises Sharply With Biden

 

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They did a survey in the last months of 2020 among the people of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. It shows that the public opinion of U.S. leadership, which had dropped sharply while Trump was in office, has rebounded to the levels it was when Obama was in office. A huge portion of the public in those countries expect things to be much better under President Biden. 

Trump "Wimps Out" & Will Mostly Avoid London In U.K. Visit

(Cartoon image is by Clay Jones at claytoonz.com.)

Trump likes to brag about himself, and portray himself as brave. He's not. He's a think-skinned narcissist who cannot stand criticism. And during his trip to the United Kingdom this week, he will be avoiding London almost entirely to avoid the planned demonstrations by many thousands of British citizens.

Here is how The Guardian puts it:

Donald Trump will almost entirely avoid London during his four-day visit to the UK next week, Downing Street has said, unveiling an itinerary that is likely to prompt accusations he is trying to avoid planned protests against him. . . .

Trump, who is to meet Theresa May and the Queen among others before spending two days in Scotland, will only spend the night in London on Thursday, the day of his arrival, staying at the US ambassador’s official residence in Regent’s Park, Winfield House.

Before that he will attend a gala dinner at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, and the following day he will hold talks with the prime minister at her Chequers country retreat in Buckinghamshire. Both are places where protesters can be kept out of sight and earshot.

Later on the Friday he will meet the Queen at Windsor Castle before heading to Scotland for the weekend.

Details about what Trump will do in Scotland will be released next week, but No 10 has described the leg as “a private element of the official visit”. There is widespread speculation he will spend part of it playing golf. . . .

Activists have promised to stage protests against Trump throughout his visit, with an event planned in London next Friday expected to be the biggest.

While he is in the capital, a giant “Trump baby” balloon, caricaturing him as a nappy-wearing infant, will be flown in the sky over Westminster after the Greater London Authority (GLA) granted the creators permission. . . .

May invited Trump for a formal state visit after she met him in Washington shortly after his inauguration. However, such a visit, which is different to this working visit, has been delayed indefinitely, reportedly because the president did not want to be met by protests.

Trump Treating G-6 Members As Enemies Strengthens Them

Donald Trump seems to have declared war on our best allies. While embracing dictators such as Vladimir Putin, Recep Erdogan, and Kim Jong-Un, he has tried to bully and threaten allies like France, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, and Italy. He has put a tariff on their steel and aluminum, and threatened to apply other tariffs if they retaliate. And his bullying tactics at the recent G-7 meeting has just driven them further away -- and made them question whether the U.S. can be trusted with Trump as president.

The chart above shows what the people of those six nations thought of U.S. leadership before the G-7 meeting. Note that all of those nations had a very high opinion of Barack Obama as president. But their opinion of Trump is very low. The percentage saying they have at least some confidence in U.S. leadership under Trump is only 25% or lower in all six countries -- France (14%), Canada (22%), United Kingdom (22%), Germany (11%), Japan (24%), and Italy (25%).

Those are terrible numbers, and Trump's atrocious performance at the G-7 meeting is not going to improve them. I expect it will have the opposite effect -- making these leaders (who stood up to Trump) stronger among their own citizens, and giving them the support they need to fight Trump's ridiculous trade war.

The G-7 meeting just proved once again that Trump's foreign policy moves have been a disaster -- and have seriously damaged the reputation of the United States.

The chart above is from the Pew Research Center.

UK-France-Germany Joint Statement On Trump's Iran Idiocy

(This photo of Merkel, May, and Macron from cnbc.com is by Dan Kitwood / Getty Images.)

Trump did it. He announced last Tuesday that he would violate the Iran Agreement by refusing to abide by its terms, and would reimpose strict economic sanctions of Iran. Fortunately, other Western leaders are not as stupid as Trump. Here is the joint statement issued by Theresa May of the United Kingdom, Emmanuel Macron of France, and Angela Merkel of Germany:

It is with regret and concern that we, the Leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom take note of President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States of America from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Together, we emphasise our continuing commitment to the JCPoA. This agreement remains important for our shared security. We recall that the JCPoA was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council in resolution 2231. This resolution remains the binding international legal framework for the resolution of the dispute about the Iranian nuclear programme. We urge all sides to remain committed to its full implementation and to act in a spirit of responsibility.

According to the IAEA, Iran continues to abide by the restrictions set out by the JCPoA, in line with its obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The world is a safer place as a result. Therefore we, the E3, will remain parties to the JCPoA. Our governments remain committed to ensuring the agreement is upheld, and will work with all the remaining parties to the deal to ensure this remains the case including through ensuring the continuing economic benefits to the Iranian people that are linked to the agreement.

We urge the US to ensure that the structures of the JCPoA can remain intact, and to avoid taking action which obstructs its full implementation by all other parties to the deal. After engaging with the US Administration in a thorough manner over the past months, we call on the US to do everything possible to preserve the gains for nuclear non-proliferation brought about by the JCPoA, by allowing for a continued enforcement of its main elements.

We encourage Iran to show restraint in response to the decision by the US; Iran must continue to meet its own obligations under the deal, cooperating fully and in a timely manner with IAEA inspection requirements. The IAEA must be able to continue to carry out its long-term verification and monitoring programme without restriction or hindrance. In turn, Iran should continue to receive the sanctions relief it is entitled to whilst it remains in compliance with the terms of the deal.

There must be no doubt: Iran’s nuclear program must always remain peaceful and civilian. While taking the JCPOA as a base, we also agree that other major issues of concern need to be addressed. A long-term framework for Iran’s nuclear programme after some of the provisions of the JCPOA expire, after 2025, will have to be defined. Because our commitment to the security of our allies and partners in the region is unwavering, we must also address in a meaningful way shared concerns about Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its destabilising regional activities, especially in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. We have already started constructive and mutually beneficial discussions on these issues, and the E3 is committed to continuing them with key partners and concerned states across the region.

We and our Foreign Ministers will reach out to all parties to the JCPoA to seek a positive way forward.

The Best Comment On "Brexit" That I've Seen

(Image was found on Facebook.)

A lot has been said about Britain's vote to leave the European Union by supporters of both sides. But the best comment and analysis I've read about the politics of the situation came from a commenter in The Guardian. That comment is posted below:

A New (And Larger) Move Toward An Independent Scotland

In September of 2014, a referendum was held in Scotland on whether they should be an independent country or remain a part of the United Kingdom. They voted to stay in the United Kingdom by a fairly substantial margin (55.3% to 44.7%).

One of the compelling arguments made for remaining a part of the U.K. was that if they left they might not be able to be a part of the European Union. And as the recent Brexit vote showed, Scotland wants to remain in the European Union. But now that English and Welsh voters carried the day last week in voting to leave the E.U., Scots are now reconsidering their decision to stay in the United Kingdom.

After the victorious Brexit vote, two newspapers (the Sunday Post and the Sunday Times) did a poll of Scottish feelings -- and both found that many Scots have now changed their minds about Scottish independence. The Sunday Post queried 1600 residents across Scotland, and found that 59% now favor independence. The Sunday Times queried 620 adults across Scotland, and found 52% now favor independence.

Will this desire for independence last? It well could, and might even grow, since the move to leave the E.U. has trashed the U.K. economy -- and that damage is unlikely to go away for quite a while.

I think the English voters have made a serious mistake -- one that could result in the break-up of their country.

English Voters Make A Huge Mistake In Leaving The E.U.

The voters in England and Wales shocked the world on Thursday by voting to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union. They chose to leave the largest economic marketplace in the world (larger than even the United States or China) -- a market where they enjoyed very favorable trade policies with other European countries (and through the E.U., the rest of the world). The vote seems to have been spurred by a virulent anti-immigrant feeling and the fact that only the rich have recovered from the worldwide recession of 2008 (much like here in the U.S.).

They were warned that leaving the E.U. would have serious economic consequences, but either didn't believe those warnings or didn't care. Now they will have to suffer those consequences. The British pound has dropped precipitously, as has their stock market. Since the U.K. depends on imports a great deal, the devalued pound will make all imports cost citizens more money (and that includes basics like food). The lower financial markets will affect their economy as a whole, causing it to falter even worse that it already was -- and most of the negative effect of that will be felt by middle and lower class citizens.

Some on the side of leaving the E.U. say these effects will be felt in the short-term only. I tend to disagree. It will take a couple of years for the U.K. to disengage itself from the E.U., and no one knows what kind of agreements on trade and other things will be reached -- and financial markets don't like not knowing the future.

Some think the U.K. will wind up with the same kind of good trade agreements with the other European nations in the final analysis. That's unlikely. The E.U. is going to want to punish the U.K. for leaving to prevent other nations from doing the same thing -- and the easiest way to do that is through trade agreements.

Leaving the E.U. could also have political ramifications within the United Kingdom. While both political parties (Conservative and Labor) were split right down the middle on the issue of leaving, the Conservatives are currently in power -- and they are the ones that will be blamed for lost jobs, higher prices, and a slower economy in general. The economic suffering could easily last until the next election -- and could even hasten that election. It could easily mean the Conservatives will be voted out of power.

It could also result in Scotland leaving the United Kingdom. The Scots voted recently to stay within the U.K., but that was on the understanding that the U.K. would be remaining in the European Union. Scotland voted heavily to stay in the E.U. last Thursday, and they are very unhappy that England and Wales are now going to take them out of the E.U. Scottish leaders are already calling for a new referendum on leaving the U.K., and it just might pass this time.

The English and Welsh voters have shot themselves in the foot with this vote -- maybe both feet.