Both Right & Left Think Country's Moving Away From Them

This chart is from the YouGov Poll -- done between November 3rd and 6th of a nationwide sample of 33,191 adults. 

Liberals Are The Economic Realists - Not Conservatives

Conservatives like to brag that they are the economic realists, while liberals just dream about pie-in-the sky programs that don't work and just waste money. The opposite is true. Liberal programs work to help most Americans, while Republicans policies only help the rich (and corporations).

Here's how E.J. Dionne Jr. puts it in The Washington Post:

Over the decades, conservatives have been enormously successful at selling a parody of liberalism. Liberals are cast as dreamy idealists who think “throwing money at problems” is the way to solve them. They’re painted as hostile to a tough-minded examination of their programs and indifferent to whether they work.

This parody has things exactly backward. In 2021, it’s liberals who want citizens, politicians included, to look rigorously at the evidence. It shows how many public programs make a substantial, positive difference in the lives of Americans, especially kids from low-income families. It’s conservatives who prefer ideology and moralism to the facts.

The spending that liberals favor these days — much of it included in President Biden’s American Families Plan that Democrats are pushing through Congress — is for government interventions that have been tested and proved.

The phrase “laboratories of democracy” refers to how state governments are free to try different policy approaches, giving all of us a chance to see which are successful and which aren’t.

The idea is often misused by opponents of federal action to argue that we should leave as much as possible to the states. Thinking of the states as “laboratories” points in a different direction. If states — red and blue — show that certain policies plainly improve people’s opportunities and circumstances, doesn’t it make sense to apply them to the whole country? Key programs, starting with Social Security and Medicare, are national for a reason.

This underscores the importance of a report released this month by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), a think tank devoted to careful policy analysis aimed at lifting up those who have been left out. Citing study after study, the report concludes that “a large body of research” demonstrates the policies in Biden’s package and other forms of assistance to the needy “would make a substantial difference in the lives of children and youth.”

Just a few particulars from the report written by Arloc Sherman, Ali Safawi, Zoë Neuberger and Will Fischer:

“When children grew up in a household receiving additional cash benefits, their academic achievement increased on a lasting basis.”

“When elementary and middle school students received access to free school lunches, their academic performance improved.”

“When children had access to quality pre-kindergarten at age 4, they were likelier to enter college on time.”

“When high school students were guaranteed grants to pay for community college, they were likelier to complete community college.”

“When parents had access to paid family leave, rates of early births and low birthweights declined.”

There’s much more about what works. Footnoting proves nothing by itself, but this document’s 108 footnotes are a measure of how many high-quality, nonpartisan studies have tested the effect of various policies.

Sharon Parrott, president of the CBPP, said in an interview that the research pulled together underscores that programs Biden and other progressives are proposing are bold but not radical. (It’s one reason the polls show them to be popular.)

“Many of them are building on successful but underfunded programs” nationally and in the states, she said, or programs that work well in other well-off democracies. Without intending an ideological pun, she added that Biden’s proposals are not “out of left field.”. . .

There is no rational reason the child poverty rate needs to be as high as it is in the United States. The percentage of children living in poverty in this country based on market incomes is not all that different from the share in most of 18 other rich countries. But an analysis of pre-pandemic data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development — that is, from before the covid-fueled surge of social spending — found that when public policies relating to taxes and benefits were taken into account, the United States ranked dead last.

We should do better. With smart policies, we can. . . .

We know a great deal about what works. Let’s do it.

Public Sees Biden As More Moderate Than Obama

 

From NBC News:

Americans perceive Joe Biden as more moderate than Barack Obama at the same stage of his presidency, a new survey shows, even as progressive activists say the incumbent is governing to the left of the former president.

The perception of Biden as a moderate may be helping him win support from congressional Democrats in competitive parts of the country who might otherwise feel pressure to oppose his agenda.

In April 2009, the NBC poll found that 59 percent of registered voters saw Obama as "very" or "somewhat" liberal, while 30 percent saw him as moderate. A new NBC poll released Sunday finds that 44 percent see Biden as "very" or "somewhat" liberal, while 42 percent see him as "moderate."

This surprises me. While President Obama was a moderate in an attempt to get some Republican support, President Biden has asked for that support but refused to moderate his agenda to get it. The programs announced by President Biden are the most progressive of any president since Lyndon Johnson.

But I don't mind the public viewing him as a moderate. It just means the Republicans have failed in their effort to demonize him, and it will make it easier to get his programs through Congress and accepted by the public.

Biden/Harris Viewed As More Moderate Than Trump/Pence

Donald Trump and the Republicans are doing their best to paint the Biden/Harris ticket as left-wing extremists. But the public is not buying it. They actually view the Trump/Pence ticket as more extremist than the Biden/Harris ticket.

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll -- done on August 12th of a national sample of 1,990 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

Respondents were asked to place each candidate on a political scale where 1 is very liberal and 7 is very conservative. The average for Kamala Harris was was 2.5 and for Joe Biden was 2.8. That placed Harris 1.5 points away from the moderate middle and Biden 1.2 points from the middle.

Donald Trump had an average of 5.8 and Pence had an average of 6.0. That placed Trump 1.8 points from the moderate middle and Pence as 2 points from the middle.

In other words, Biden and Harris are viewed as more moderate than Trump and Pence.

That's a good thing, because the voting public tends to favor more moderate candidates.

The chart below, from the same poll, also has some good news for Democrats. It shows that since being chosen as the Democratic candidate for vice-president, Kamala Harris' popularity has substantially increased. Among all voters, her favorable rating has jumped up by 12 points.

Number Of People Identifying As Conservative Is Dropping

The chart above reflects the results of the Gallup Poll. The poll asked 3,079 adults in May and June what they considered themselves to be politically, and their survey had a 2 point margin of error. They then compared the answers to those they got back in January and February.

At the beginning of this year, about 40% of the public said they were conservative. Currently, only 34% claim to be conservative. That's a drop of six points in the last six months. Those are people who no longer want to identify with Trump and the Republican officials (all of whom claim the conservative label).

Every demographic group showed a decline in people identifying as conservative -- including Republicans.

This is not good for the GOP only 100 days until the next election.

NOTE -- Moderates have gained in numbers over the same period -- from 34% to 36%. They now are a larger group than conservatives. Liberals also grew in numbers -- from 22% to 26%.

Intolerance Of Ideas Should Not Be A Liberal Attribute

Liberals/progressives are quick to condemn conservatives for being intolerant, and they are right to do so. Free speech and democracy demands the free flow of ideas . This does not mean that one must be tolerant of evil actions by anyone, but ideas (even repugnant ones) must be protected.

But sadly, conservatives are not the only people who are intolerant. Sometimes we liberals/progressives are also, and we need to check ourselves and remember who we are -- believers in democratic values and free speech.

The following is part of an excellent and thought-provoking op-ed from Nicholas Kristof in The New York Times. I think it deserves attention from those of us on the left.

Progressives of my era often revere the adage misattributed to Voltaire: “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” For young progressives, the priority is more about standing up to perceived racism, misogyny, Islamophobia and bigotry.

The rise of President Trump has amplified this generational clash and raised the fundamental question of how to live liberal values in an illiberal age.

It’s a difficult balance, requiring intellectual humility. . . .

While I admire campus activism for its commitment to social justice, I also worry that it sometimes becomes infused with a prickly intolerance, embracing every kind of diversity except one: ideological diversity. Too often, we liberals embrace people who don’t look like us, but only if they think like us. . . .

For those of us who believe that liberalism should model inclusivity and tolerance, even in intolerant times, even to the exclusive and the intolerant, it was disappointing to see Cambridge University this year rescind a fellowship for Jordan Peterson, the Canadian best-selling author who says he will not use people’s preferred pronouns. Debate him — that’s how to win the argument — rather than trying to squelch him.

Liberals sometimes howl when this newspaper brings in a conservative columnist or publishes a sharply conservative Op-Ed. We progressives should have the intellectual curiosity to grapple with disagreeable views. . . .

I fear that Trump has made it easy for liberal activists to demonize conservatives and evangelicals. People are complicated at every end of the spectrum, and it’s as wrong to stereotype conservatives or evangelicals as it is to stereotype someone on the basis of race, immigration status or sex. . . .

As a liberal, I mostly write about conservative blind spots. But on the left as well as the right, we can get so caught up in our narratives that we lose perspective; nobody has a monopoly on truth. If Trump turns progressives into intolerant agents of incivility, then we have lost our souls.

As we head toward elections with monumental consequences,polarization will increase and mutual fear will surge. The challenge will be to stand up for our values — without betraying them.

The Moral Acceptability Of 21 Issues In The United States

These charts are from a recently released Gallup Poll -- done between May 1st and 12th of a national sample of 1,009 adults, and has a margin of error of 4 points.

The top chart shows the opinion of Americans on whether these 21 issues are moral or not. The bottom chart shows the difference in the opinions between liberals and conservatives on those issues.

Democrats Favor Moderation While GOP Wants Extremism

The charts above are from a recent survey by the Pew Research Center. It was done between January 9th and 14th of 1,505 adults. The sample included 736 Democrats and 657 Republicans. The margin of error was 4.3 points for Democrats and 4.5 points for Republicans.

It shows that, by a gap of 13 points, a majority of Democrats want their party to be more moderate. The opposite is true of Republicans. While they are already on the extreme right, by a 20 point margin, a majority of Republicans want their party to move even further to the right.

While I am a progressive (liberal), I like the results of this survey. That's because I am also a pragmatist. I want to win in 2020, and neither party will do that by being viewed as an extremist party. While both parties would like to believe that they have enough members to win an election, it is just not true. The election will be decided by who the Independents support, and most of them are moderates.

This does not mean Democrats must give up hope of passing a progressive agenda. I think those moderates would support a lot of progressive ideas. They just don't want "radical change". That idea scares them.

Most of the Democrats running for president would happily support and sign laws that would raise the minimum wage, fix our healthcare system, help students afford college (or trade schools), strengthen labor unions, protect Social Security and Medicare (and fix their future funding problem), fight global climate change and protect the environment, and increase taxes on the rich and corporations.

And the public would also support them, as long as the ideas are explained to them as helping ordinary Americans. Preaching radical change would be a mistake. We do need a lot of changes, but we can only get them by winning the next election -- and we do that by convincing the moderates that we are not the party of extremism. The Republicans are the extremists. Democrats are just the party with rational solutions to the country's problems.

Moderation is not a dirty word. In the United States, it's the path to success.

The Ideological Make-Up Of The American Public

The charts above reflect information in a recent Gallup Poll. Gallup questioned 13,852 adults during 2018 to find out their ideological stance. The poll has a margin of error of only 1 point.

It shows the percentage who consider themselves to be conservative (35%), moderate (35%), or liberal (26%). Note that neither the conservatives nor the liberals have enough to win an election. Both would need the support of moderates.

The Republicans have hurt themselves among moderates by becoming too extreme -- and that was clearly shown in the last election (when voters gave Democrats a 9 point advantage over Republicans in votes on House races).

Some Democrats want their party to move far to the left. That would be a mistake. You  don't appeal to the moderate voters by becoming extremist. If Democrats want to win in 2020, they must appeal to moderate voters. This does not mean a progressive candidate cannot win, but it must be one that appeals to a majority of moderates -- a candidate that moderates view as being mainstream.

Justice Kennedy Retires - Putting Our Rights In Danger

The people of the United States just got some very bad news. Justice Anthony Kennedy, who has been the swing vote on the United States Supreme Court, announced that he will retire at the end of July.

That means that the make-up of the court will change. Instead of four conservatives, four liberals, and a swing justice, there will now be five hard right-wingers and four liberals. It could be that way for at least a decade -- maybe longer. And you can bet that McConnell will try to push a Trump nominee through the Senate as quickly as possible.

This puts equal rights, human rights, and voting rights into serious jeopardy. And it could even put the Roe vs. Wade decision into jeopardy.

Democrats need to use every procedural device at their disposal to stop, or at least delay, a vote on a Trump nominee (who is guaranteed to be a hard right person like Gorsuch). I doubt they can stop the Senate Republicans from approving another right-winger appointed by Trump, but they must try.

This makes it extremely important for Democrats to get to the polls and vote in November. They must flip the Senate to Democratic control. If Democrats are able to delay Trump's nomination pick, they could then force him to appoint a moderate to the court. If not, they could at least make sure that he gets no more picks.

Note the ages of the justices in the graphic above. What if one of the liberals has to retire, or perish the thought, dies. Ginsburg is 85 and Breyer is 79. If Trump got to replace either of them, the conservative advantage would be 6 to 3 -- and that would mean a right-wing court for decades to come.

Flipping the House of Representatives in the coming election would be good, but flipping the Senate has now become critical. That can only be done if Democrats (and Independents) vote is massive numbers in November. Staying at home is NOT an option if you love this country and the rights we have.