Thursday, September 26, 2019
Elizabeth Warren Takes The Lead In Delegate-Rich California
The chart above is from the UC Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll -- done between September 13th and 18th of 2,272 registered voters in California likely to vote in the state's Democratic primary. The margin of error is 3 points.
In the last few days, I have posted polls that show Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now this poll shows she has done the same in California. California is also an early state for 2020 -- voting on March 3rd with a bevy of other states.
Warren has the support of 29% of California Democrats/Leaners, while Biden has 22% and Sanders has 19%. They are followed by Harris with 8%, Buttigieg with 6%, and O'Rourke with 3%.
Warren has gained 11 points since this same poll was done in June. Biden has neither gained nor lost support, and Sanders has gained 2 points. The biggest losers are Harris (who has lost 5 points) and Buttigieg (who has lost 4 points). O'Rourke has neither gained nor lost points.
Transcript Of Speaker Pelosi's Statement On Impeachment
It's On! The House of Representatives is officially starting impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump!
The tipping point for Speaker Pelosi and many moderate Democrats was the knowledge that Donald Trump broke campaign finance law by asking the leader of a foreign country (Ukraine) to help his 2020 campaign by investigation Joe Biden and his son for corruption (even though Ukrainian officials have dismissed the idea that such a thing was a reality).
This time, Trump can't claim ignorance. It has been discussed for many months now that it's illegal for a candidate to request or accept campaign help from any foreigner.
That won't be the only charge on impeachment though. House members have a plethora of charges they can consider -- including extortion (threatening Ukraine with withholding military aid if they don't comply with Trump's request), several charges of obstruction of justice with the Mueller investigation, and multiple charges of obstruction of Congress' right to oversight of the presidential administration. There could also be charges concerning violation of the Constitution's Emolument provision (that Trump is using the presidency for his own financial gain), and other possible financial misdeeds.
Here is the transcript of Speaker Pelosi's speech on starting official impeachment inquiry:
The tipping point for Speaker Pelosi and many moderate Democrats was the knowledge that Donald Trump broke campaign finance law by asking the leader of a foreign country (Ukraine) to help his 2020 campaign by investigation Joe Biden and his son for corruption (even though Ukrainian officials have dismissed the idea that such a thing was a reality).
This time, Trump can't claim ignorance. It has been discussed for many months now that it's illegal for a candidate to request or accept campaign help from any foreigner.
That won't be the only charge on impeachment though. House members have a plethora of charges they can consider -- including extortion (threatening Ukraine with withholding military aid if they don't comply with Trump's request), several charges of obstruction of justice with the Mueller investigation, and multiple charges of obstruction of Congress' right to oversight of the presidential administration. There could also be charges concerning violation of the Constitution's Emolument provision (that Trump is using the presidency for his own financial gain), and other possible financial misdeeds.
Here is the transcript of Speaker Pelosi's speech on starting official impeachment inquiry:
Last Tuesday, we had the anniversary of the adoption of the Constitution on September 17.
Sadly on that day, the intelligence community inspector general formally notified the Congress that the administration was forbidding him from turning over a whistleblower complaint on Constitution Day. This is a violation of law. Shortly thereafter, press reports began to break of a phone call by the president of the United States calling upon a foreign power to intervene in his election.
This is a breach of his constitutional responsibilities. The facts are these: The intelligence community inspector general, who is appointed by President Trump, determined that the complaint is both of urgent concern and credible. And its disclosure relates to one of the most significant and importance of director of national intelligence responsibility to the American people.
On Thursday, the inspector general testified before the House Intelligence Committee stating that the acting director of national intelligence blocked him from disclosing the whistleblower complaint. This is a violation of law. The law is: The DNI, director of national intelligence, shall provide Congress the full whistleblower complaint.
For more than 25 years, I served on the Intelligence Committee as a member, as the ranking member, as part of the Gang of Four even before I was in the leadership. I was there when we created the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. That did not exist before 2004. I was there even earlier when we wrote the whistleblower laws and continued to write them to improve them to ensure the security of our intelligence and the safety of our whistleblowers.
I know what their purpose was, and we proceeded to balance and caution as we wrote the laws.
I can say with authority that the Trump administration’s actions undermine both the national security and our intelligence and our protections of whistleblowers. The acting DNI will appear before the House Intelligence Committee and must turn over the full complaint to the committee. He will have to choose whether to break the law or honor his responsibility to the constitution.
On the final day of the Constitutional Convention in 1787, when our Constitution was adopted, Americans gathered on the steps of Independence Hall to break the news the government our founders had crafted, “What do we have, a republic or monarchy?” [Benjamin] Franklin replied, “A Republic if you keep it.”
Our responsibility is to keep it. The wisdom of our Constitution enshrined in three co-equal branches of government serving as checks and balances on each other. The actions taken by the president have seriously violated the Constitution, when the president says “Article 2 says I can do whatever I want.”
For the past several months we have been investigating in our committees and litigating in the courts so the House can gather all the relevant facts and whether to exercise its Article 1 powers, including a constitutional power of the utmost gravity of articles of impeachment.
And this week, the president has admitted to asking the president of Ukraine to take actions which would benefit him politically. The actions of the Trump presidency revealed dishonorable facts of betrayal of his oath of office and betrayal of our national security and betrayal of the integrity of our elections.
Therefore, today I’m announcing the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry and directing our six committees to proceed with their investigation under that umbrella of impeachment inquiry.
No one is above the law.
Getting back to our founders, in the darkest days of the American Revolution, Thomas Paine wrote, “The times have found us.” The times found them to fight and establish our democracy. The times have found us today. Not to place ourselves in the same greatness as our founders but in protecting and defending our Constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic. In the words of Ben Franklin, “to keep our republic.”
I thank our chairmen, Chairman Nadler, Chairman Schiff, Chairman Engel, Chairman Cummings of Oversight. Chairman Cummings and I have been in touch with [each other] constantly. He is a master of so much, including inspectors general and whistleblowers. Chairman Richard Neal, Congresswoman Maxine Waters of the Financial Services Committee. And I commend all of our members, our colleagues for their thoughtful, thoughtful approach to all of this for their careful statements.
God bless them, and God bless America.
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Warren Is In First Place In New New Hampshire Poll
This chart reflects the results of the new Monmouth University Poll -- done between September 17th and 21st of a sample of 401 New Hampshire voters likely to participate in the New Hampshire primary. The margin of error is 4.9 points.
This new poll has Elizabeth Warren moving into first place -- 2 points above Joe Biden, and 15 points above Bernie Sanders. This is good news for the Warren campaign, after another poll showed her also moving into first place in Iowa last week.
There's still a few months before the voting begins, but Warren's growth doesn't seem to be a flash-in-the-pan (like that earlier of O'Rourke, Harris, and Buttigieg). Her growth in support has been slow and steady, and she may well be able to build on it.
The current support is represented by the blue bars. The gray bars show the support each candidate had in May of this year. Note that Warren has gained 19 points since May, while Biden has lost 11 points and Sanders has lost 6 points.
NOTE -- Only candidates receiving at least 1% support were included in the chart.
Warren Tops Sanders For Second In Large National Poll
These charts are from the latest Morning Consult Poll -- done between September 16th and 22nd of a national sample of 17,377 voters who say they will vote in a Democratic Party primary/caucus. The margin of error is only 1 point.
The top chart shows Elizabeth Warren has jumped over Bernie Sanders, and is now in second place nationally behind Joe Biden. This is the first time Warren has topped Sanders in this weekly poll.
The second chart shows where much of her new support is coming from -- among white suburban women. She has gained 14 points among that demographic in the last four months, while Biden has lost 9 points and Sanders has lost 2 points.
A New Generation Of Heroes

The Baby Boomer generation changed the world. They took on the government and culture in many countries (including the United States), and refused to continue the failed system. They didn't fix everything. Much remained to be done. And too often, we complained about the younger generations -- that they were not engaged enough. It wasn't completely true. There were those who stood up, but not in the large numbers that were needed.
That seems to have changed. There is a new generation of young heroes coming forward now. They are disgusted with the world we have passed on to them, and they are starting to do something about it.
The pictures here are of just a few of these young heroes. There are many thousands more -- of all colors and in many countries. They are taking to the streets in massive numbers and demanding change -- and they are willing to put their lives on the line to lead that march toward change.
I am proud of all of these young heroes. They are renewing my faith in mankind -- and I really believe they might save the world that older generations seem determined to kill.


Democrats May Finally Be Ready To Impeach Trump
Trump has played fast and loose with the law and the Constitution since being sworn into office. The Mueller investigation found over 100 instances in which the Trump campaign met with Russians during the 2016 campaign, and found several instances of Trump obstructing justice after becoming president.
That didn't seem to be enough for some House Democrats (including Speaker Pelosi) to think impeachment proceedings should be started. But Trump's latest instance of criminal conduct may have changed that.
We now know that after Congress passed a bill giving Ukraine hundreds of millions in military aid to help them fight off the Russians, Trump put a hold on that money just three days before calling the Ukrainian president. He then used the threat of continuing to hold that money until Ukraine initiated an investigation of Joe Biden and his son.
Trump admits he talked to the Ukraine's president about investigating the Bidens, but says there was no quid pro quo. That's not what the whistleblower heard. And it's not how the Ukrainian president understood it either. From The Washington Post:
“I don’t think it really matters . . . whether the president explicitly told the Ukrainians that they wouldn’t get their security aid if they didn’t interfere in the 2020 elections,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “There is an implicit threat in every demand that a United States president makes of a foreign power. . . . That foreign country knows that if they don’t do it, there are likely to be consequences.”. . .
It appears the Ukrainian leader came away from the discussion with a different impression. Murphy, who spoke with Zelensky during an early September visit to Ukraine, said Monday that the Ukrainian president “directly” expressed concerns at their meeting that “the aid that was being cut off to Ukraine by the president was a consequence” of his unwillingness to launch an investigation into the Bidens.
Now Speaker Pelosi is asking members of the House Democratic caucus whether they think it is time for impeachment proceedings to begin. And some Democrats, who had been opposed to impeachment are now changing their minds. The following is an op-ed in The Washington Post written by seven freshmen Democrats (who had previously not supported impeachment):
(Reps. Gil Cisneros of California, Jason Crow of Colorado, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.)
Our lives have been defined by national service. We are not career politicians. We are veterans of the military and of the nation’s defense and intelligence agencies. Our service is rooted in the defense of our country on the front lines of national security.
We have devoted our lives to the service and security of our country, and throughout our careers, we have sworn oaths to defend the Constitution of the United States many times over. Now, we join as a unified group to uphold that oath as we enter uncharted waters and face unprecedented allegations against President Trump.
The president of the United States may have used his position to pressure a foreign country into investigating a political opponent, and he sought to use U.S. taxpayer dollars as leverage to do it. He allegedly sought to use the very security assistance dollars appropriated by Congress to create stability in the world, to help root out corruption and to protect our national security interests, for his own personal gain. These allegations are stunning, both in the national security threat they pose and the potential corruption they represent. We also know that on Sept. 9, the inspector general for the intelligence community notified Congress of a “credible” and “urgent” whistleblower complaint related to national security and potentially involving these allegations. Despite federal law requiring the disclosure of this complaint to Congress, the administration has blocked its release to Congress.
This flagrant disregard for the law cannot stand. To uphold and defend our Constitution, Congress must determine whether the president was indeed willing to use his power and withhold security assistance funds to persuade a foreign country to assist him in an upcoming election.
If these allegations are true, we believe these actions represent an impeachable offense. We do not arrive at this conclusion lightly, and we call on our colleagues in Congress to consider the use of all congressional authorities available to us, including the power of “inherent contempt” and impeachment hearings, to address these new allegations, find the truth and protect our national security.
As members of Congress, we have prioritized delivering for our constituents — remaining steadfast in our focus on health care, infrastructure, economic policy and our communities’ priorities. Yet everything we do harks back to our oaths to defend the country. These new allegations are a threat to all we have sworn to protect. We must preserve the checks and balances envisioned by the Founders and restore the trust of the American people in our government. And that is what we intend to do.
UPDATE -- Speaker Pelosi has announced that formal impeachment proceedings will now happen!
That didn't seem to be enough for some House Democrats (including Speaker Pelosi) to think impeachment proceedings should be started. But Trump's latest instance of criminal conduct may have changed that.
We now know that after Congress passed a bill giving Ukraine hundreds of millions in military aid to help them fight off the Russians, Trump put a hold on that money just three days before calling the Ukrainian president. He then used the threat of continuing to hold that money until Ukraine initiated an investigation of Joe Biden and his son.
Trump admits he talked to the Ukraine's president about investigating the Bidens, but says there was no quid pro quo. That's not what the whistleblower heard. And it's not how the Ukrainian president understood it either. From The Washington Post:
“I don’t think it really matters . . . whether the president explicitly told the Ukrainians that they wouldn’t get their security aid if they didn’t interfere in the 2020 elections,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “There is an implicit threat in every demand that a United States president makes of a foreign power. . . . That foreign country knows that if they don’t do it, there are likely to be consequences.”. . .
It appears the Ukrainian leader came away from the discussion with a different impression. Murphy, who spoke with Zelensky during an early September visit to Ukraine, said Monday that the Ukrainian president “directly” expressed concerns at their meeting that “the aid that was being cut off to Ukraine by the president was a consequence” of his unwillingness to launch an investigation into the Bidens.
Now Speaker Pelosi is asking members of the House Democratic caucus whether they think it is time for impeachment proceedings to begin. And some Democrats, who had been opposed to impeachment are now changing their minds. The following is an op-ed in The Washington Post written by seven freshmen Democrats (who had previously not supported impeachment):
(Reps. Gil Cisneros of California, Jason Crow of Colorado, Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, Elaine Luria of Virginia, Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.)
Our lives have been defined by national service. We are not career politicians. We are veterans of the military and of the nation’s defense and intelligence agencies. Our service is rooted in the defense of our country on the front lines of national security.
We have devoted our lives to the service and security of our country, and throughout our careers, we have sworn oaths to defend the Constitution of the United States many times over. Now, we join as a unified group to uphold that oath as we enter uncharted waters and face unprecedented allegations against President Trump.
The president of the United States may have used his position to pressure a foreign country into investigating a political opponent, and he sought to use U.S. taxpayer dollars as leverage to do it. He allegedly sought to use the very security assistance dollars appropriated by Congress to create stability in the world, to help root out corruption and to protect our national security interests, for his own personal gain. These allegations are stunning, both in the national security threat they pose and the potential corruption they represent. We also know that on Sept. 9, the inspector general for the intelligence community notified Congress of a “credible” and “urgent” whistleblower complaint related to national security and potentially involving these allegations. Despite federal law requiring the disclosure of this complaint to Congress, the administration has blocked its release to Congress.
This flagrant disregard for the law cannot stand. To uphold and defend our Constitution, Congress must determine whether the president was indeed willing to use his power and withhold security assistance funds to persuade a foreign country to assist him in an upcoming election.
If these allegations are true, we believe these actions represent an impeachable offense. We do not arrive at this conclusion lightly, and we call on our colleagues in Congress to consider the use of all congressional authorities available to us, including the power of “inherent contempt” and impeachment hearings, to address these new allegations, find the truth and protect our national security.
As members of Congress, we have prioritized delivering for our constituents — remaining steadfast in our focus on health care, infrastructure, economic policy and our communities’ priorities. Yet everything we do harks back to our oaths to defend the country. These new allegations are a threat to all we have sworn to protect. We must preserve the checks and balances envisioned by the Founders and restore the trust of the American people in our government. And that is what we intend to do.
UPDATE -- Speaker Pelosi has announced that formal impeachment proceedings will now happen!
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