Congress Dominated By Silent & Baby Boomer Generations

 

The chart above is from the Pew Research Center. It shows the generational divisions of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the United States.

The Reason Why There's Hope For The Future

I'm rather ashamed of the Silent and Baby Boomer generations. By preferring Republicans and clinging to discrimination, they have screwed up this country (and its economy).

Fortunately, there's hope for a much brighter future. That's because the younger generations, especially the Millennials and Generation Z, are much more liberal and much less discriminatory than the older generations.

These charts are from the Pew Research Center.

Gen Z/Millennials Are More Liberal Than Other Generations

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They questioned 11,602 people in the five different generations (Silent, Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z). Note that each generation is more liberal in general than the one that came before it -- and the most liberal generations of all are the Millennials and Gen Z.

A Brief Look At Generational Differences

I just found these statistics from the Pew Research Center interesting. They show some differences between the four generations. It turns out that the Millennials are the most diverse, best educated, and most metropolitan generation that this nation has ever had. I just hope they do a better job with the country (and the world) than previous generations have done.

7 Charts Showing The Generational Divide In The U.S.

These charts show the results found about the generational divide in America by the Pew Research Center. I found them interesting, and thought you night also.

Millennials Have The Voting Power (But Aren't Using It)

In 2015, the Millennial generation outnumbered the previous largest generation (Baby Boomers) for the first time -- and that gap will continue to grow. That means the Millennials should have a large say in who gets elected to office in this country. But they don't, because they aren't using the voting power they now have.

In the 2016 election, only 49% of Millennials voted -- making them 25% of the voters in that election. By comparison, about 69% of Baby Boomers voted -- making them 34% of the voters in the election. Democrats have a significant advantage among Millennials, but that advantage is useless until they can convince them to vote in much larger numbers.

Here is just part of an article on this by Stephanie Akin in Roll Call:

A report from the Pew Research Center published this week found that millennials and Generation X voters outnumbered baby boomers and older generations for the first time ever in the 2016 presidential election. The report marks the latest milestone in a trend that demographers say will keep building for at least another 20 years. And while Pew includes Gen X voters in its report, millennials alone outnumber boomers as a whole and are driving the trend.

The population shift has yet to make a mark in elections. That’s partly because young people are less likely to vote. . . .

“We have these two broad camps in America, one of them is older, whiter and more conservative and the other is younger, browner and more liberal,” said Paul Taylor, author of “The Next America,” which looked at the widening generation gap and the changes it would bring to American life. . . .

Those statistics would indicate that Democrats already have a vast advantage. The problem is that — so far — they don’t vote at rates comparable to other generations.

“Millennials continue to punch below their weight,” Taylor said.

Millennials overtook baby boomers last year as the country’s largest generation and also caught up to them as a share of the U.S. electorate. But they cast only 25 percent of the votes in November, Pew has found. And election turnout among millennials is expected to drop by more than half in 2018.

The outcome of next year’s midterms, and future congressional elections, could depend in large part on whether political organizers can motivate millennials to turn up, said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, the director of CIRCLE at Tufts University. 

“Especially in congressional elections, there’s just not enough attention paid to the importance of mobilizing young people,” she said. . . .

But so far, the data show that young people are not that motivated, Kawashima-Ginsberg said. A survey conducted by her organization last year found that while about 75 percent of young people were paying attention to the presidential election, only a quarter were paying attention to congressional elections. 

Reactions to the Trump administration could shift the tide, she said.

Trump, with his crackdown on border security, travel ban on nationals from certain Muslim-majority countries, and attempt to ban transgender people from the military, has made little effort to craft social policies that would appeal to many younger voters, Kawashima-Ginsberg and other observers said. 

In response, some liberal groups have stepped up efforts to recruit young people for leadership training programs and encourage them to run for office, according to Kawashima-Ginsberg. As young voters see more candidates who look like them and share their values, she said, they could be more likely to participate. 

But the reverse is also possible: Young people who don’t feel that either party represents their interests could give up on politics altogether, she said.

Baby Boomers Were The Largest Voting Generation In 2016

The Baby Boomer generation was once again the largest voting generation in the presidential election. About 48.1 million Baby Boomers voted in 2016, making up about 35% of the total number of voters. Generation X was second with 35.7 million (26%), followed by Millennials with 34 million (25%), and Silent/Greatest with 19.8 million (14%).

The Baby Boomers are not the largest generation in this country. They are outnumbered by Millennials. But the Baby Boomers had a much larger percentage of their generation voting (69%) than the Millennials (49%). The Millennials are now large enough to have a huge effect on this country's elections, but to do so they are going to have to turnout in a much larger percentage -- 49% is not going to get the job done.

These charts reflect a study of the 2016 election by the Pew Research Center.

Millennials Most Concerned About How Their Actions Affect The Environment of Our Planet

I guess this shouldn't surprise me, since Millennials will be living on this planet longer than Gen Xers or Baby Boomers. But it is kind of disappointing. A healthy 59% of Millennials say they are concerned about how their daily activities affect the environment, while only 29% disagree (see top chart). Members of Generation X are split on the issue (49% to 48%). It is the Baby Boomers that don't seem to care about the environment. Only 39% say they are concerned about how their daily activities affect the environment, while 58% don't really care.

I realize that we Boomers will not be around to see how our actions affect the planet in the future, but that is a poor reason to not really care about it. Shouldn't we care about what kind of planetary environment we leave for future generations (especially since we are the generation that invented Earth Day)?

The second chart shows the planned participation in Earth Day activities (on April 22nd). Once again, it is the Millennials who plan the most participation (48% to 30%), while the Baby Boomers will have the least participation (27% to 51%).

These charts are from a new YouGov Poll done on April 13th and 14th of a random national sample of 1,064 adults.

A Population Trend That Bodes Well For Democrats

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center -- using a compilation of surveys they have done in each year since 2000.

They show a trend toward liberalism (progressivism) and toward the Democratic Party since that year. Those who identify as liberal has shown an increase of 9 points (to 21%), while those identifying as conservative has increased by only 3 points (to 25%). The trend toward those identifying as Democrats has also shown better growth (7 points) than those identifying as Republicans (2 points).

The second chart shows how this is happening. The younger Americans are trending more toward liberalism and the Democratic Party, while older Americans favor the Republican Party. Those identifying as liberals has grown by 9 points among Millennials (to 27%), and by 7 points among Generation X (to 21%). And those identifying as Democrats has grown by 7 points among Millennials (to 54%), and by 6 points among Generation X (to 48%).

Conservatism has grown among Baby Boomers by 8 points (to 31%), and among the Silent Generation by 11 points (to 36%). Those identifying as Republican has grown by 5 points among Baby Boomers (to 44%), and by 10 points among the Silent Generation (to 48%).

The problem for Republicans is that as the Silent Generation (and them Baby Boomers) die off, they will be replaced by the much more liberal and Democratic Generation X and Millennials.

When you add this trend to another population trend -- the percentage growth of non-whites (who tend to be much more liberal and Democratic) over whites among the voting population -- then you have a future that looks very bright for Democrats.

Growth Of Support For Legal Same-Sex Marriage 2005-2015

As we wait for the Supreme Court to finally decide that state bans on same-sex marriage are unconstitutional (hopefully), I bring you one more survey on the growing acceptance of those marriages in this country. This time it's the Pew Research Center. Their survey was done between May 12th and 18th of a random national sample of 2,002 adults, and has a margin of error of 2.5 points (5 points for Republicans, 4.5 points for Democrats, 4.1 points for Independents, 5.3 points for Millennials, 5.2 points for Generation X, 4.2 points for Baby Boomers, and 6.2 points for the Silent Generation).

The top chart shows the growth of support in the last decade for the general public (21 points) -- and for Democrats (12 points), Independents (19 points), and Republicans (15 points). The general public (57%), Democrats (65%), and Independents (65%) all show significant majorities favoring the legalization of same-sex marriages. Only the Republicans (34%) continue to show minority support.

The second chart above shows the breakdown by generation (and political belief in each generation). The largest support comes from Millennials (where even young Republicans show majority support) -- and that support diminishes with each older generation. It seems fairly obvious that support will continue to grow in the future, as older Americans die off and are replaced by younger citizens.

The top chart below is very interesting to me, because it shows that Americans believe this is a battle that has been won (regardless of what the Supreme Court might decide. Significant majorities of every generation now believe that legalized same-sex marriages in all states is inevitable.

The bottom chart is not necessarily about same-sex marriage, but about the growing acceptance of homosexuality in general. It asked those in each generation if they would be upset to learn their child was gay or lesbian. Only the Silent Generation showed a negative majority. The Baby Boomers were split on the issue -- with a majority saying they would not be upset (but the split was within the margin of error of the survey). Huge majorities of Generation X and the Millennials say it would not upset them.

Millennials Are Now Largest Segment Of The Workforce

The Gen X generation overtook the Baby Boomers as the largest segment of the workforce in 2012 -- but their reign was a short-lived one. In the first quarter of 2015, they were surpassed by the Millennials.

Currently the Millennials make up 35% (53.5 million workers) of the workforce, while the Gen Xers make up 34% (52.7 million workers), the Baby Boomers make up 29% (44.6 million workers), and the Silent generation makes up 2% (3.7 million workers).

This information is from a Pew Research Center study.

Millennials -- 18 to 34 years old (born 1980-97)
Generation X -- 35 to 50 years old (born 1965-80)
Baby Boomers -- 51 to 69 years old (born 1946-64)
Silent generation -- 70 to 87 years old (born 1928-45)

Voters Are Trending Away From The Republican Party

The chart above was made from information provided by the Pew Research Center. That information was garnered from 12 surveys done during 2014 of 26,010 randomly chosen adults, and has a margin of error of only 0.7 points.

If you have been wondering why the Republicans would try to limit who can vote in our elections, and did some serious gerrymandering in 2010, this chart should answer that question for you. They are not only outnumbered by Democrats, but each generation is seeming to be more Democratic than the last. The only generation that has more Republicans than Democrats is the Silent generation (those between the ages of 69 and 86). The Baby Boomers (50 to 68), the Gen-Xers (34 to 49), and the Millennials (18 to 33) all have more Democrats than Republicans.

Those Millennials should especially worry the Republicans. They have a 16 point gap favoring the Democrats, and as political scientists have shown, voters tend to stay with the party they first voted for all their lives.

The Republicans could start to remedy this by moderating their rather hateful views, but they don't seem to be interested in doing that -- and that forecasts a bleak view for their party.

Millennials Trending Away From GOP & Conservatism

The Pew Research Center recently did a very good survey that concerned Millennials, and how they differed from other generations. It was a long article and  well worth reading, but here I'll just confine myself to how the generations differed on political affiliation, ideology, and social issues. In this survey, the generations are defined as below:

Millennials...............18 to 33 years old
Generation X...............34 to 49 years old
Baby Boomers...............50 to 68 years old
Silent Generation...............69 to 86 years old

As you can see from the charts above, each generation is producing more Independents that the one that came before it, and currently 50% of Millennials identify themselves as Independents -- more than any other generation. But that does not mean they view the two political parties equally. The millennials give the Democrats a 10 point edge in party ID. Interestingly enough, the Republicans have damaged their reputation enough with their congressional shenanigans that now all four generations have a higher ID with Democrats than with Republicans -- Generation X by 11 points, the Baby Boomers by 7 points, and the Silent Generation by 5 points.

It gets more interesting when you add in the leaners (those calling themselves Independents but leaning toward one party or the other) as illustrated in the second and third charts. This more vividly demonstrates how each passing generation prefers Democrats more than the preceding one, and that is especially true of Millennials. When leaners are included, the Silent Generation prefers Democrats by only 1 point, the Baby Boomers by 4 points, Generation X by 10 points, and the Millennials by a whopping 16 points.

This preference for Democrats by all generations doesn't necessarily mean the 2014 election will be a great one for Democrats. As those who keep up with politics know, off-year elections like 2014 are not determined by party preference but by turn-out (since many people tend to vote in presidential elections and skip off-year elections). The 2014 election will be won by the party that does the best job of turning out voters -- and the higher the vote total, the better for Democrats.

But it should send a warning signal to Republicans for 2016 and future elections, because younger voters are trending away from them and their ideology. As the Silents (and Boomers) die off, the electorate will trend more toward the Democrats with each passing election. This trend can't be reversed unless the Republicans moderate their policies on social issues (something the teabaggers will not let them do right now). Note in the two following charts that the younger generations are getting less conservative and more liberal -- with both political ideology and on social issues.

There is one more chart I thought was interesting. It shows the generational views of Congress and each party's congressional leaders. Note that while none of the generations have much respect for the current Congress, it is the Millennials that view it most favorably (but by only 30% -- not a figure to be especially proud of). But while they are all upset with Congress, note that all of the generations are more upset with the Republican congressional leaders than the Democratic leaders -- which also shows that a high turnout in 2014 would favor the Democratic Party.

This Pew Research Center survey was done between February 12th and 26th of a national sample of 3,338 adults (with a 2 point margin of error. The generational breakdown was:
Millennials..........645 respondents (4.5 point margin of error)
Generation X..........699 respondents (4.3 point margin of error)
Baby Boomers..........1,292 respondents (3.1 point margin of error)
Silent Generation..........584 respondents (4.7 point margin of error)