Congress Dominated By Silent & Baby Boomer Generations

 

The chart above is from the Pew Research Center. It shows the generational divisions of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the United States.

Millennials (With Generation Z) Could Control The Election

The Charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They show that the generation with the largest population is now the Millennials. In 2019, they passed the Baby Boomers in size. There are 71.6 million Baby Boomers (age 55 to 73) to 72.1 million Millennials (age 23 to 38). It marks the first time in decades that the Baby Boomers have not been the largest generation.

That means the Millennials, along with Generation Z (under 23), could control the 2020 election. Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen. Why? Because older Americans vote in much larger percentages than younger Americans do. That has been true for many years. People over 55 vote in larger percentages (meaning larger numbers) than voters under 40.

I hope I'm wrong. If young voters turn out to vote in large numbers, it would mean Trump could not be re-elected. If they turn out only in numbers like in the past, then it could be a close election.

The political football is being passed to Mellennials. Will they Catch it and score, or will they drop it?

Robert Reich On Why Millennials Aren't Doing As Well

I'm a Baby Boomer. I think my generation was a lucky one. We were born and raised at a time when the nation was doing well -- and offered us opportunities that previous generations didn't have. Most of us thought our children and grandchildren would have it even better than we did. Unfortunately, that didn't happen.

Thanks to Republican economic policies, young people have LESS opportunity now than in the past -- and this is especially true of Millennials.

Robert Reich (pictured) tells us why Millennials are having problems getting ahead these days. I think he's right, and it's something that must be fixed.

He writes:

The same forces that are driving massive inequality between the top 1 percent and the rest of us are creating a vast generational wealth gap between baby boomers — my generation — and millennials.

Millennials aren’t teenagers anymore. They’re working hard, starting families and trying to build wealth. But as a generation, they’re way behind. 

They’re deeper in debt, only half as likely to own a home, and more likely to live in poverty than their parents.

If we want to address their problems, we need to understand those problems.

Number one: Stagnant wages. Median wages grew by an average of 0.3% per year between 2007 and 2017, including the Great Recession – just as millennials were beginning their careers. Before that, between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, wages grew at three times that rate.

Second: As wages have stagnated, the costs of essentials like housing and education have been going through the roof. Millennials own fewer homes, the most common way Americans have built wealth in the past.  Education costs have soared. Adjusted for inflation, the average college education in 2018 cost nearly three times what it did in 1978.

Third: As a result of all of this, Debt.  That expensive college education means that the average graduate carries a whopping $28,000 in student loan debt. As a generation, millennials are more than one trillion dollars in the red.  In addition, the average young adult carries nearly $5,000 in credit card debt, and this number is growing.

Fourth: Millennials are finding it harder than previous generations to save for the future. Among Fortune 500 companies, only 81 sponsored a pension plan in 2017, that’s down from 288 twenty years ago. Employers are replacing pensions with essentially “do-it-yourself” savings plans.

All of this means that fewer millennials are entering the middle class than previous generations.  Most have less than $1,000 in savings. Many young people today won’t be able to retire until 75, if at all.

If we don’t start trying to reduce this generational wealth gap — through policies like debt relief, accessible health insurance, paid family leave, affordable housing, and a more equitable tax code for renters — millions of young Americans will struggle to find financial security for the rest of their lives.

Young people Are Leaving Religion (& Unlikely To Return)

Young people (millennials) have left religion behind in record numbers, and it is likely that Generation Z will do so in even larger numbers.

Some people say that it is normal for young people to spurn religion, but they will return to it when they get older. But there is now evidence that is not true. Millennials are not returning to their religion.

Here's some of how Daniel Cox and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux at FiveThirtyEight.com describe this phenomenon (which spells big trouble for religion in this country):

Millennials have earned a reputation for reshaping industries and institutions — shaking up the workplace, transforming dating culture, and rethinking parenthood. They’ve also had a dramatic impact on American religious life. Four in ten millennials now say they are religiously unaffiliated, according to the Pew Research Center. In fact, millennials (those between the ages of 23 and 38) are now almost as likely to say they have no religion as they are to identify as Christian. ¹

For a long time, though, it wasn’t clear whether this youthful defection from religion would be temporary or permanent. It seemed possible that as millennials grew older, at least some would return to a more traditional religious life. But there’s mounting evidence that today’s younger generations may be leaving religion for good.

Social science research has long suggested that Americans’ relationship with religion has a tidal quality — people who were raised religious find themselves drifting away as young adults, only to be drawn back in when they find spouses and begin to raise their own families. Some argued that young adults just hadn’t yet been pulled back into the fold of organized religion, especially since they were hitting major milestones like marriage and parenthood later on.

But now many millennials have spouses, children and mortgages — and there’s little evidence of a corresponding surge in religious interest. A new national survey from the American Enterprise Institute of more than 2,500 Americans found a few reasons why millennials may not return to the religious fold. (One of the authors of this article helped conduct the survey.)

• For one thing, many millennials never had strong ties to religion to begin with, which means they were less likely to develop habits or associations that make it easier to return to a religious community.
• Young adults are also increasingly likely to have a spouse who is nonreligious, which may help reinforce their secular worldview.
• Changing views about the relationship between morality and religion also appear to have convinced many young parents that religious institutions are simply irrelevant or unnecessary for their children.

Millennials may be the symbols of a broader societal shift away from religion, but they didn’t start it on their own. Their parents are at least partly responsible for a widening generational gap in religious identity and beliefs; they were more likely than previous generations to raise their children without any connection to organized religion. According to the AEI survey, 17 percent of millennials said that they were not raised in any particular religion compared with only five percent of Baby Boomers. And fewer than one in three (32 percent) millennials say they attended weekly religious services with their family when they were young, compared with about half (49 percent) of Baby Boomers.

A parent’s religious identity (or lack thereof) can do a lot to shape a child’s religious habits and beliefs later in life. A 2016 Pew Research Center study found that regardless of the religion, those raised in households in which both parents shared the same religion still identified with that faith in adulthood. For instance, 84 percent of people raised by Protestant parents are still Protestant as adults. Similarly, people raised without religion are less apt to look for it as they grow older — that same Pew study found that 63 percent of people who grew up with two religiously unaffiliated parents were still nonreligious as adults.

But one finding in the survey signals that even millennials who grew up religious may be increasingly unlikely to return to religion. In the 1970s, most nonreligious Americans had a religious spouse and often, that partner would draw them back into regular religious practice. But now, a growing number of unaffiliated Americans are settling down with someone who isn’t religious — a process that may have been accelerated by the sheer number of secular romantic partners available, and the rise of online dating. Today, 74 percent of unaffiliated millennials have a nonreligious partner or spouse, while only 26 percent have a partner who is religious.

The Reason Why There's Hope For The Future

I'm rather ashamed of the Silent and Baby Boomer generations. By preferring Republicans and clinging to discrimination, they have screwed up this country (and its economy).

Fortunately, there's hope for a much brighter future. That's because the younger generations, especially the Millennials and Generation Z, are much more liberal and much less discriminatory than the older generations.

These charts are from the Pew Research Center.

Gen Z/Millennials Are More Liberal Than Other Generations

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They questioned 11,602 people in the five different generations (Silent, Baby Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, Gen Z). Note that each generation is more liberal in general than the one that came before it -- and the most liberal generations of all are the Millennials and Gen Z.

Our Generations Failed - A New Generation Marches To Fix It

The graphic above shows the results of a 1998 survey by Arther Kellermann. The NRA and its adherents tell us that keeping a gun in the home makes us safer. That study explodes that myth. For every one self-defense shooting, there are 22 shootings caused by accident, criminal assault or homicides, or suicides. In other words, a family member is 22 times more likely to be shot than a burglar entering your home -- if you have a gun in that home.

This is just one aspect of the NRA idea that more guns means a safer country. That is not true of a home, a state, or the country as a whole. The truth is more guns = more deaths. Consider this from the Scientific American:

"Most of this research—and there have been several dozen peer-reviewed studies—punctures the idea that guns stop violence. In a 2015 study using data from the FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, researchers at Boston Children's Hospital and Harvard University reported that firearm assaults were 6.8 times more common in the states with the most guns versus those with the least. Also in 2015 a combined analysis of 15 different studies found that people who had access to firearms at home were nearly twice as likely to be murdered as people who did not."

The NRA would also like for us to believe that the huge number of gun deaths in this country (especially mass shootings) are not the result of the easy access to guns, but due to mental illness or violent video games. That's just ludicrous. Other developed nations have mental illness and violent video games, but their ratio of gun deaths in much lower. That's because they have reasonable gun laws -- laws that keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people.

The sad truth is that our generations (Silent - Baby Boomer - Generation X) have failed. We bought into the NRA lies and let our elected representatives get by with doing NOTHING! We decided that it was OK to have 30,000 gun deaths each year (including 12,000 gun homicides). We let the right to own a gun (by any nut) become more important that the right of our fellow citizens to live.

Fortunately, a new generation is now rising up (millennials and post-millennials) and they are taking a stand. On Saturday, millions of them will march in more than 800 cities across the nation. They aren't trying to abolish the Second Amendment. They just want reasonable (and constitutional) laws that will save thousands of American lives each year. They want the holes plugged in the background check law, so every gun buyer must have a background check before being able to buy that gun (even in gun shows, on the internet, and in private sales). They want assault weapons banned (along with magazines holding more than 10 rounds of ammunition). They want gun laws that make sense and make Americans safer.

Older generations are guilty of inaction in the face of an epidemic of gun deaths. It is time to excise that guilt -- and that can only be done by supporting the young people speaking out for common sense.

A Brief Look At Generational Differences

I just found these statistics from the Pew Research Center interesting. They show some differences between the four generations. It turns out that the Millennials are the most diverse, best educated, and most metropolitan generation that this nation has ever had. I just hope they do a better job with the country (and the world) than previous generations have done.

7 Charts Showing The Generational Divide In The U.S.

These charts show the results found about the generational divide in America by the Pew Research Center. I found them interesting, and thought you night also.

Republicans Are In Trouble With Young Voters (18-34)

These charts were made using results from a recent NBC News / GenForward - University of Chicago Survey -- done between January 3rd and 16th of a random national sample of 1,844 millennials (between 18 and 34), and the entire poll has a margin of error of 3.95 points.

It shows that the Republican Party has a significant problem with young voters. They disapprove of the job Trump is doing by 44 points, and they disapprove of the job the GOP-led Congress is doing by an even larger 49 points. They also think the country is on the wrong track by 45 points. In other words, they are currently very unhappy with our national government.

And things are nearly as bad when the two major parties are considered by young voters. They have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by 20 points. They think the Democratic Party cares for for them by 26 points. And they consider themselves members of (or leaning toward) the Democratic Party by 26 points.

Will these young voters show up at the polls in large numbers next November? I believe they will. They have been energized (like their older peers) by the hateful agenda of Trump and the Republican Party, and November will be their chance to display their displeasure.

Millennials Have The Voting Power (But Aren't Using It)

In 2015, the Millennial generation outnumbered the previous largest generation (Baby Boomers) for the first time -- and that gap will continue to grow. That means the Millennials should have a large say in who gets elected to office in this country. But they don't, because they aren't using the voting power they now have.

In the 2016 election, only 49% of Millennials voted -- making them 25% of the voters in that election. By comparison, about 69% of Baby Boomers voted -- making them 34% of the voters in the election. Democrats have a significant advantage among Millennials, but that advantage is useless until they can convince them to vote in much larger numbers.

Here is just part of an article on this by Stephanie Akin in Roll Call:

A report from the Pew Research Center published this week found that millennials and Generation X voters outnumbered baby boomers and older generations for the first time ever in the 2016 presidential election. The report marks the latest milestone in a trend that demographers say will keep building for at least another 20 years. And while Pew includes Gen X voters in its report, millennials alone outnumber boomers as a whole and are driving the trend.

The population shift has yet to make a mark in elections. That’s partly because young people are less likely to vote. . . .

“We have these two broad camps in America, one of them is older, whiter and more conservative and the other is younger, browner and more liberal,” said Paul Taylor, author of “The Next America,” which looked at the widening generation gap and the changes it would bring to American life. . . .

Those statistics would indicate that Democrats already have a vast advantage. The problem is that — so far — they don’t vote at rates comparable to other generations.

“Millennials continue to punch below their weight,” Taylor said.

Millennials overtook baby boomers last year as the country’s largest generation and also caught up to them as a share of the U.S. electorate. But they cast only 25 percent of the votes in November, Pew has found. And election turnout among millennials is expected to drop by more than half in 2018.

The outcome of next year’s midterms, and future congressional elections, could depend in large part on whether political organizers can motivate millennials to turn up, said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, the director of CIRCLE at Tufts University. 

“Especially in congressional elections, there’s just not enough attention paid to the importance of mobilizing young people,” she said. . . .

But so far, the data show that young people are not that motivated, Kawashima-Ginsberg said. A survey conducted by her organization last year found that while about 75 percent of young people were paying attention to the presidential election, only a quarter were paying attention to congressional elections. 

Reactions to the Trump administration could shift the tide, she said.

Trump, with his crackdown on border security, travel ban on nationals from certain Muslim-majority countries, and attempt to ban transgender people from the military, has made little effort to craft social policies that would appeal to many younger voters, Kawashima-Ginsberg and other observers said. 

In response, some liberal groups have stepped up efforts to recruit young people for leadership training programs and encourage them to run for office, according to Kawashima-Ginsberg. As young voters see more candidates who look like them and share their values, she said, they could be more likely to participate. 

But the reverse is also possible: Young people who don’t feel that either party represents their interests could give up on politics altogether, she said.

Baby Boomers Were The Largest Voting Generation In 2016

The Baby Boomer generation was once again the largest voting generation in the presidential election. About 48.1 million Baby Boomers voted in 2016, making up about 35% of the total number of voters. Generation X was second with 35.7 million (26%), followed by Millennials with 34 million (25%), and Silent/Greatest with 19.8 million (14%).

The Baby Boomers are not the largest generation in this country. They are outnumbered by Millennials. But the Baby Boomers had a much larger percentage of their generation voting (69%) than the Millennials (49%). The Millennials are now large enough to have a huge effect on this country's elections, but to do so they are going to have to turnout in a much larger percentage -- 49% is not going to get the job done.

These charts reflect a study of the 2016 election by the Pew Research Center.

Millennials Most Concerned About How Their Actions Affect The Environment of Our Planet

I guess this shouldn't surprise me, since Millennials will be living on this planet longer than Gen Xers or Baby Boomers. But it is kind of disappointing. A healthy 59% of Millennials say they are concerned about how their daily activities affect the environment, while only 29% disagree (see top chart). Members of Generation X are split on the issue (49% to 48%). It is the Baby Boomers that don't seem to care about the environment. Only 39% say they are concerned about how their daily activities affect the environment, while 58% don't really care.

I realize that we Boomers will not be around to see how our actions affect the planet in the future, but that is a poor reason to not really care about it. Shouldn't we care about what kind of planetary environment we leave for future generations (especially since we are the generation that invented Earth Day)?

The second chart shows the planned participation in Earth Day activities (on April 22nd). Once again, it is the Millennials who plan the most participation (48% to 30%), while the Baby Boomers will have the least participation (27% to 51%).

These charts are from a new YouGov Poll done on April 13th and 14th of a random national sample of 1,064 adults.

A Population Trend That Bodes Well For Democrats

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center -- using a compilation of surveys they have done in each year since 2000.

They show a trend toward liberalism (progressivism) and toward the Democratic Party since that year. Those who identify as liberal has shown an increase of 9 points (to 21%), while those identifying as conservative has increased by only 3 points (to 25%). The trend toward those identifying as Democrats has also shown better growth (7 points) than those identifying as Republicans (2 points).

The second chart shows how this is happening. The younger Americans are trending more toward liberalism and the Democratic Party, while older Americans favor the Republican Party. Those identifying as liberals has grown by 9 points among Millennials (to 27%), and by 7 points among Generation X (to 21%). And those identifying as Democrats has grown by 7 points among Millennials (to 54%), and by 6 points among Generation X (to 48%).

Conservatism has grown among Baby Boomers by 8 points (to 31%), and among the Silent Generation by 11 points (to 36%). Those identifying as Republican has grown by 5 points among Baby Boomers (to 44%), and by 10 points among the Silent Generation (to 48%).

The problem for Republicans is that as the Silent Generation (and them Baby Boomers) die off, they will be replaced by the much more liberal and Democratic Generation X and Millennials.

When you add this trend to another population trend -- the percentage growth of non-whites (who tend to be much more liberal and Democratic) over whites among the voting population -- then you have a future that looks very bright for Democrats.

Millennials Prefer Clinton Over Trump By A 28 Point Margin

This chart reflects the results of the recent Harvard University Institute of Politics Poll -- done between October 7th and 17th of a random national sample of 2,150 likely voters between 18 and 29, with a margin of error of 3.11 points.

It shows that millennial voters prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 28 point margin (49% to 21%). About 11% say they are still undecided, while 19% prefer Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

Will Millennials Cost Hillary Clinton The Election? NO!

There has been a lot of talk in the media about millennials, and the opinion of the talking heads at the networks seems to be that Hillary Clinton is in trouble with millennials -- and that young voters may cost her the election because they aren't as enthusiastic about her as they were about Barack Obama.

I'm not buying into that theory, and a new survey of millennials by Democracy Corps seems to back me up. It is true that Clinton currently has 10 points less among millennials than Obama did at this point in 2012 (54% to 64%). But those votes are not going to Donald Trump. He is also down from what Romney had among millennials in 2012 (34% to 29%).

Perhaps most important is the white vote among millennials. In 2012, Romney carried white millennials over Obama by 51% to 46%. Trump is not even close to doing that against Clinton. He trails Clinton by 9 points (44% to 35%). That means Trump is doing 16 points worse than Romney did.

And I believe even more millennials will come home to the Democratic Party and vote for Clinton by November 8th. She may not be the first choice of millennials, but they abhor Donald Trump.

Clinton Leads Trump By 32 Points Among Millennial Voters

The Millennials are the largest generation in the United States -- passing the Baby Boomers a couple of years ago (75.4 million Millennials to 74.9 million Baby Boomers). That makes them a very important segment of the voting population. And it turns out that they overwhelmingly prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in this election -- by a huge 32 points. Trump is doing worse among Millennials than he does among women, and almost as bad as he does among Blacks and Hispanics.

Trump had been hoping to get some of the Millennials who had supported Bernie Sanders (who was the obvious choice of this group). That isn't happening though. Clinton is getting nearly 3 out of 4 Millennial voters (72%), while Trump is getting only 11%.

The chart above was made from a new USA Today / Ipsos Poll -- done between August 4th and 10th of a random national sample of 1,539 voters aged 18 to 34, with a margin of error of 4.6 points.

The one fly in the ointment for Democrats is that traditionally younger voters don't vote in as large a percentage as older voters (with seniors voting in the largest percentage). Democrats will need to make a serious effort to change that this year. If they can get large numbers of Millennials to vote this year, the presidential election could be a blow-out.