These Election Trends Should Worry Trump (And GOP)

In his New York Times column, Stanley B. Greenberg notes four trends from the recent election. These voting trends gave the Democrats their huge victory, and should be of serious concern for the future -- especially 2020, when they will probably go into the election with Trump at the head of the ticket. Here's what the 2018 election showed:

First of all, Democrats did not win simply because white women with college degrees rebelled against Mr. Trump’s misogyny, sexism and disrespect for women. Nearly every category of women rebelled. . . .

Yes, House Democrats increased their vote margin nationally among white women with at least a four-year degree by 13 points compared with the Clinton-Trump margin in 2016. But Democrats also won 71 percent of millennial women and 54 percent of unmarried white women (who split their votes two years earlier). In 2018, unmarried white women pushed up their vote margin for Democrats by 10 points. In fact, white women without a four-year degree (pollster shorthand for the white working class) raised their vote margin for Democrats by 13 points.

Overall, white women split their vote between Democrats and Republicans, but it is clear which way they are moving. Interestingly, the white college women who were supposed to be the “fuel for this Democratic wave” played a smaller role in the Democrats’ increased 2018 margin than white working class women, because the former were 15 percent of midterm voters and the latter 25 percent. . . .

Second, Mr. Trump and his party maintained their principal base with white working class voters, the shift among women notwithstanding, and Democrats still need to do better. Nonetheless, Democrats got their wave in part because a significant portion of male and female white working class voters abandoned Mr. Trump and his Republican allies.

In 2016, the white working class men that Mr. Trump spoke most forcefully to as the “forgotten Americans” gave him 71 percent of their votes and gave only 23 percent to Hillary Clinton. This year, the Republicans won their votes with a still-impressive margin of 66 to 32 percent. But what was essentially a three-to-one margin was deflated to two-to-one, which affected a lot of races. . . .

Third, Democrats made big gains because Mr. Trump declared war on immigrants — and on multicultural America — and lost. His ugly campaign succeeded in making immigration and the border a voting issue for the Republican base, according to the postelection survey I did with Democracy Corps, which asked those voting Republican why they did. “Open borders” was the top reason given for voting against a Democratic candidate. But it backfired among other voters.

On Election Day, a stunning 54 percent of those who voted said immigrants “strengthen our country.” Mr. Trump’s party lost the national popular vote by seven points, but he lost the debate over whether immigrants are a strength or a burden by 20 points. Mr. Trump got more than half of Republicans to believe immigrants were a burden, but three quarters of Democrats and a large majority of independents concluded that America gains from immigration. . . .

Fourth, Democrats could not have picked up as many House seats as they did in 2018 without raising their share of the vote by four points in the suburbs, which have grown to encompass 50 percent of voters. Mrs. Clinton won many of these districts in 2016, so it was clear that any further shift in the Democrats’ direction would prove consequential. But Democrats made their biggest gains not there, but in the rural parts of the country. That was the shocker.

Democrats cut the Republicans’ margin in rural areas by 13 points, according to the Edison exit poll and by seven points in one by Catalist. Democrats still lost rural America by somewhere between 14 and 18 points so that left Democrats in a pickle there. That had implications for the Senate, but it shouldn’t conceal the fact that Democrats actually made progress in rural areas.

A Bit Of Good News For The Democratic Party

The chart above is from a recent Gallup Poll -- done between May 1st and 31st of a random national sample of 15,219 adults, with a 1 point margin of error.

Back in September of 2015, the monthly Gallup Poll showed the percentage of Americans saying they were a member of either the Republican or Democratic parties (or leaned toward one of those parties) was roughly equal -- about 42% for each. Even as late as November of 2016, the parties had only a 2 point difference -- Republicans 42% and Democrats 44%.

But since Donald Trump and the Republican Congress have taken office (and displayed their incompetence), that has changed. Their is now a 7 point difference between the parties (Republicans 38% and Democrats 45%) -- and that gap seems to be still growing (more from voters fleeing the Republican Party than new members of the Democratic Party. The Republicans have shrunk by 4 point while the Democrats have gained 1 point.

If the Republicans don't stop the bleeding and turn this trend around, the 2018 election could be disastrous for them (assuming the Democrats can get their voters to the polls).

A Population Trend That Bodes Well For Democrats

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center -- using a compilation of surveys they have done in each year since 2000.

They show a trend toward liberalism (progressivism) and toward the Democratic Party since that year. Those who identify as liberal has shown an increase of 9 points (to 21%), while those identifying as conservative has increased by only 3 points (to 25%). The trend toward those identifying as Democrats has also shown better growth (7 points) than those identifying as Republicans (2 points).

The second chart shows how this is happening. The younger Americans are trending more toward liberalism and the Democratic Party, while older Americans favor the Republican Party. Those identifying as liberals has grown by 9 points among Millennials (to 27%), and by 7 points among Generation X (to 21%). And those identifying as Democrats has grown by 7 points among Millennials (to 54%), and by 6 points among Generation X (to 48%).

Conservatism has grown among Baby Boomers by 8 points (to 31%), and among the Silent Generation by 11 points (to 36%). Those identifying as Republican has grown by 5 points among Baby Boomers (to 44%), and by 10 points among the Silent Generation (to 48%).

The problem for Republicans is that as the Silent Generation (and them Baby Boomers) die off, they will be replaced by the much more liberal and Democratic Generation X and Millennials.

When you add this trend to another population trend -- the percentage growth of non-whites (who tend to be much more liberal and Democratic) over whites among the voting population -- then you have a future that looks very bright for Democrats.

Two Charts That Should Trouble All Republicans

All you have to do is look at the policies supported by Republicans, especially base GOP voters, to know that they still think they can win with an exclusive white vote. But as the chart above shows, the percentage of whites making up the American population is growing smaller -- and by 2050 (just 35 years from now) will compose only a minority of the population.

Their policies may already be making it very difficult, if not impossible, to win a presidential election -- since enough whites (combined with minorities) already compose a majority. It's a little different when it comes to Congress, especially the House of Representatives. The Republicans have been able to stave off this demographic change by some adroit gerrymandering. But that won't last forever.

As the population becomes more diverse (and whites lose their majority), the communities (including the suburbs) will also become more diverse -- and that will make it much more difficult to gerrymander a majority without changing their policies to include minority voters (which the GOP seems unable to do).

And that's not the only problem the Republicans have. It seems that Gen X and Millennial voters are trending increasingly toward the Democratic Party. They don't like the stances the GOP is taking on the issues (especially social issues). And as political scientists have shown, the way a person votes early in their political life tends to be the way they vote throughout their life. As the Silent and Boomer generations die off, they are being replaced by voters much more aligned with the Democratic Party.

The GOP could change their policies to appeal more to younger voters, but like with their racial and ethnic policies, the GOP base doesn't want that -- making it very unlikely those policies will change any time soon. That is their right, of course, but it is making their party an increasingly smaller party.

NOTE -- These charts are from the Pew Research Center.

Five Trends All Americans Need To Know About

(The image of trend arrows above is from Northeast Homes For Sale.)

There are some trends that all Americans should know about. That is especially important in this election year, because many of the candidates (Republican) would like the public to believe they aren't happening -- and are basing much of their campaigns on that lie.

The following is from Moyers and Company:

The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan “fact tank” that analyzes just about every aspect of American life, has enumerated some key takeaways from the many studies it conducted over the course of 2015. Their full report is worth a read in and of itself, but as the New Year began we focused on five aspects that particularly caught our attention.

First, everybody knows that America’s middle class is shrinking, but 2015 marked the first year that the middle class was not larger than those segments of the population above and below it.

Second, at the same time that more Americans are finding themselves stuck in poverty or falling into it, Americans’ trust in government is at only 19 percent — less than one in five of us think we can “trust the government” always or most of the time. The numbers show that we’re less trusting today than we were right after the Watergate scandal. It’s at one of the lowest levels in the past 50 years.

Third, for the first time since the 1940s — despite all the anti-immigration bombast spouted by the many GOP presidential candidates — “more immigrants from Mexico are leaving the US than coming into the country.” Pew attributes this to a number of factors, including stricter enforcement of immigration laws under the Obama administration and ongoing concerns about the post-recession economy.

Fourth, Pew finds that over the next four decades, Islam will grow more quickly than any of the world’s other major religions. This underscores the importance of Americans needing a basic understanding of a religion that many politicians and fear-mongering pundits continue to paint as a vague but serious threat to our country.

Fifth, some encouraging news: After holding steady from 2009 through 2014, the percentage of Americans who think that the country needs to make changes to give African-Americans more rights increased dramatically, by double digits. Both a majority of black and white Americans now support action to make our country more racially equal.