GOP Presidential Preference From July To The Present

This chart was made from a new CBS News / New York Times Poll -- done between September 9th and 13th of a national sample of 376 Republican primary voters, and has a margin of error of 6 points.

The poll verifies what several others have shown in recent days -- that two candidates are far ahead in the race. Donald Trump has 27% support and Ben Carson has 23% support. No other candidate registers more than 6% support.

But the interesting part of the survey, at least for me, is when they compare current results to the results this same poll got on July 15th (two months ago). Trump has about the same result as in July (with his slight gain being within the survey's margin of error. The candidate with the biggest jump since July is Ben Carson -- who has gone from 6% to 23%. Carly Fiorina (going from 0% to 4%) and John Kasich (going from 1% to 3%) also showed a small gain (although statistically insignificant).

All of the other candidates either lost support or stayed the same. The biggest losers were Jeb Bush (who dropped 7 points) and Scott Walker (who dropped 8 points). Bush now has 6% support and Walker comes in at an embarrassing 2% support.

Two Polls Show Trump Leading With Iowa GOP Voters

As late as last week, Scott Walker had the lead among Republican caucus-goers in Iowa. But two new polls, both taken after the GOP debate last week, show that Donald Trump is now leading in Iowa. Was it Walker's rather lackluster performance in the debate that caused this, or did Iowans like the show Trump put on? Maybe it's a bit of both. Either way, this is not good for Walker -- because Iowa is in his back yard, and he should be able to do very well there.

The Suffolk University Poll was done between August 7th and 10th of a random sample of 500 likely GOP caucus attendees, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.

The Public Policy Polling survey was done between August 7th and 9th of a random sample of 619 likely GOP caucus attendees, and has a margin of error of 3.9 points.

Note that Trump's lead over Walker exceeds the margin of error in both polls.

Trump Still Looking Strong In Latest National Poll Of GOP

These are some interesting results from the latest national poll of Republicans. It seems that a majority of Republicans (56%) consider John McCain to be a war hero, and that same percentage thinks Donald Trump owes McCain an apology for doubting his hero status.

But that has not hurt Trump in the polls. This poll (the YouGov Poll done between July 20th and 22nd of 1,000 random national adults -- with a margin of error of 4 points) shows Trump with his biggest lead yet. He has the support of 28% of Republicans -- 14 points better than Bush, and 15 points better than Walker. No other candidate got more than 7% (one-quarter the support that Trump got).

Trump has definitely tapped into the anger of the GOP teabagger base, and they don't care what he says about anyone else -- even other Republicans. They are angry, and they see Trump as the candidate (the only candidate) that is voicing the anger they feel.

Political pundits keep saying that Trump will fade, but he certainly isn't fading yet. And I'm starting to think he may have more staying power than anyone thought. The teabaggers have been looking for a hero for six years, and it looks like they have finally found one -- Donald Trump.

This does not necessarily mean he will win the nomination, and in fact, most Republicans don't think he will. About 36% think Jeb Bush will be the eventual winner, while 11% think it will be Walker, 10% think it will be Trump, and 7% think it will be Rubio (see chart below).

Which One Of These Polls Is Wrong About Virginia ?

It seemed like all the major cable news outlets could talk about on Wednesday was the results of a new survey by the Quinnipiac University Poll. That poll (top chart) showed Hillary Clinton would lose to all three of the most likely GOP candidates in some swing states -- including Virginia. In Virginia, she trails Bush and Walker by 3 points, and Rubio by 2 points. Is this true?

Maybe not. A different survey in Virginia, done by Public Policy Polling, had a quite different result (bottom chart). It showed Clinton leading all three of those candidates --Bush by 8 points, Walker by 5 points, and Rubio by 4 points.

Both of these surveys were done in generally the same time period (Quinnipiac between July 9th and 20th, and PPP between July 13th and 15th), had similar survey sizes (Quinnipiac questioned 1,209 people, and PPP questioned 1,170 people), and had similar margins of error (Quinnipiac's was 2.8 points, and PPP's was 2.9 points). How did the two surveys arrive at such different results? Which is correct?

One of these polls is an outlier (a poll that disagrees with all other polls). In my opinion it is the Quinnipiac University Poll. Their results disagree with all of the other polls we have seen, while Public Policy Polling's survey is in line with other polls.

It is possible that Quinnipiac is showing a change happening, but I don't believe it -- at least not yet. It will be interesting to see what future polls show.

Virginia Voters Make Their Presidential Preference Known

Public Policy Polling has released their latest presidential poll. This time they queried the voters in Virginia. The survey was done between July 13th and 15th of a random sample of 1,170 registered voters in Virginia, with a margin of error of 2.9 points. The margin of error for the 502 Republicans is 4.4 points, and for the 409 Democrats is 4.9 points.

Donald Trump didn't finish first in this survey. That honor went to Jeb Bush, who had the support of 18% of Virginia Republicans. But Trump was among the leaders, finishing in a tie for second with Scott Walker at 14% support. No other candidate could get into double-digits. Huckabee with 8% and Rubio with 7% came the closest.

I am a bit surprised at what has happened to candidates that were once considered to be among the leaders -- like Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, and Paul. They seem to have been the losers of the Trump phenomenon, falling back into the "second-tier" of candidates. Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul were benefitting from the anger in the base, but Trump seems to have co-opted that anger vote.Can Trump go the distance? He may be making a mistake by attacking other Republicans right now. If he does fall back, can Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul regain their status. We'll just have to wait and see. Frankly, I don't know the answer to those questions.

There's no question who the favorite is among Virginia Democrats though. Hillary Clinton has a 50 point lead over Bernie Sanders (64% to 14%) -- and that's without Biden being included as a choice. Some had thought Biden supporters might go to Sanders, but that certainly didn't happen in Virginia.

Another interesting aspect of this PPP survey was that they matched both Sanders and Clinton with the three leading Republicans (and Rubio). Clinton would beat any of the four, while Sanders would beat only Trump. There are a lot of "unsure" though, and that could mean that Virginia voters are open to Sanders showing he could be a credible candidate for the Democrats. He just hasn't done that yet.

NOTE -- On these two bottom charts, the blue represents the Democratic candidate and the red represents the GOP candidates. The green shows the number of voters who are unsure who they would vote for.

Clinton Is Viewed Favorably By All Democratic Groups

The Pew Research Center just did a survey to see how the parties viewed their top candidates -- and Hillary Clinton came out smelling like a rose. It not only turns out that 77% of Democrats view her favorably -- but that holds true across all demographic groups. Perhaps most depressing for her biggest opponent (Bernie Sanders) is that 81% of Democratic liberals view her favorably (since he must do well in that group to be a credible candidate).

They also asked Republicans how they viewed their top candidates. None of them topped 55% in favorability. That means this is probably going to be a tightly contested presidential contest among Republicans (unlike Democrats, where Clinton still looks very strong).

The survey was done between May 12th and 18th of 636 Democrats and 506 Republicans. The margin of error for Democrats was 4.5 points, and for Republicans was 5 points.

Iowa Voters Prefer Hillary Clinton In New Survey

Public Policy Polling has done a new survey in Iowa. The survey was done between April 23rd and 26th of a random sample of 1,219 Iowa voters, and has a margin of error of 2.8 points (with a 4.5 point margin of error when only Democrats or Republicans were questioned).

The results were no surprise. Hillary Clinton is still the overwhelming choice of the state's Democrats, while Scott Walker (governor of a neighboring state) has a lead among Republican hopefuls. Walker's lead is not a huge one though -- coming in at only 23% support (which means if the caucuses were held right now, he would get less than a quarter of Iowa's Republican delegates). That's certainly not a prohibitive lead (like the one Clinton has), and shows the race is still open to any candidate winning.

The survey also put the two Democrats (Clinton and Sanders) against the GOP leader (Walker). Clinton beat him by a 7 point margin. Sanders didn't do that well, trailing Walker by a 5 point margin. That's kind of scary, since swing states like Iowa will be very important in the 2016 election. The truth is that most voters don't know who the hell Bernie Sanders is, and they are not going to vote for someone they don't know. It just shows how much work is ahead for Sanders to make himself competitive -- if he can do it at all.

Hillary Clinton Looks Very Strong In New Hampshire

Charts were made from information in the new Public Policy Polling survey -- done between April 9th and 13th of a random sample of 747 New Hampshire voters, with a margin of error of 3.6 points.

Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming choice of New Hampshire Democrats, and Scott Walker was the choice of the state's Republicans by a significant margin. But it really doesn't matter who the Republicans liked, because Clinton easily defeats any of the GOP hopefuls (and by about the same margins). New Hampshire is definitely trending Democratic -- at least as far as the presidency in 2016 goes.

It's also interesting that both the second and third place Democrats (Warren and Biden) also would beat the top Republican in New Hampshire, but not by as large a margin as Hillary Clinton (see chart below).

Both Clinton And Feingold Look Strong In Wisconsin

Wisconsin Republicans like their governor, and about 40% of them would vote for him in their primary if he chooses to run, but his popularity has fallen drastically among the general population of that state. In fact, if Walker was the GOP nominee (and the election was held today), he would lose his home state badly to Hillary Clinton (by about 12 points). That's pretty embarrassing for a sitting governor.

And Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson is in even worse shape. He was elected in the low-turnout off-year of 2010, but this time he must run for re-election in a presidential year (when far greater numbers of people will vote). And he is badly trailing former Senator Russ Feingold (54% to 38% -- a whopping 16 point margin).

Feingold has not officially declared as a candidate for his old senate seat, but most in Wisconsin do expect him to run. I really hope he does. He was a great senator in the past, and I'm sure he'll be just as good when re-elected. The best thing the voters of Wisconsin could do for this country is to send Russ Feingold back to the U.S. Senate.

These charts were all made from a new Marquette Law School Poll -- done between April 7th and 10th of a random sample of 803 registered Wisconsin voters, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Walker Would Lose To Clinton In His Home State

Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, has recently been growing in popularity among Republicans across the country. Now many consider him to be a viable candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. And it's no different in Wisconsin. If Walker does run, he would have the support of a majority of Wisconsin Republicans.

But that wouldn't help him in a general election. In fact, a recent poll shows he would lose his own home state to Hillary Clinton. He's not alone though. That same poll shows all the other GOP hopefuls would also lose to Clinton, and by about the same margin.

That poll is a recent survey by Public Policy Policy. It was done between March 6th and 8th of a random sample of 1,071 registered Wisconsin voters, and has a margin of error of 3 points.

And that's not the only good news for Democrats. That same poll showed if Russ Feingold ran for senate again (and it is believed that he will), he would beat incumbent Republican Ron Johnson by 9 points. Last time Johnson won in an off-year election, when many Democrats and Independents stayed home. But 2016 is a presidential election year, when voter participation is high. Each candidate would do well in their own party (with Feingold getting 86% of Democrats and Johnson getting 83% of Republicans), but Feingold does much better with Independents (holding a 14 point margin).

Clinton Vs. GOP Hopefuls IN Colorado, Iowa, And Virginia

The Quinnipiac University Poll recently looked at three states that are considered by many to be "swing states" in the 2016 election -- Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. The GOP starts off behind the Democrats in blue state/red state electoral votes by a significant margin, which means these are three states that the Republicans really need to win to have a chance in the 2016 election.

And the results were mixed for the GOP. For instance, Paul seems to be doing OK in Colorado and Virginia, but does poorly in Iowa. Bush does well in Virginia, but not so good in Iowa and Colorado. Walker does fairly well in Colorado, but not so well in Iowa and Virginia. And Huckabee and Christie trail in all three states.

If the election was held today, I believe Hillary Clinton would easily be elected president. There's still a long time before the 2016 election, but the Republicans have a long way to go to catch up with Clinton (and will probably damage each other in the primary campaign next year, while Clinton will sail through the primaries virtually unscathed).

In Colorado, 1,049 registered voters were questioned between February 5th and 15th, and the survey has a margin of error of 3 points.

In Iowa, 1,089 registered voters were questioned between February 5th and 15th, and the survey has a margin of error of 3 points.

In Virginia, 1,074 registered voters were questioned between February 5th and 15th, and the survey has a margin of error of 3 points.