Sunday, September 15, 2013

Maine's GOP Governor Trailing In Early Polls

It looks like Maine's dalliance with a right-wing Republican Governor may be coming to an end next year. A new poll from the Maine Peoples' Resource Center shows Governor Paul LePage trailing his opponents in a three-way race. The MPRC is a state poll, but it proved itself very accurate in the last election -- picking the winner in every race in that state.

Lending more credence to the MPRC poll is the fact that a recent Public Policy Polling survey came up with similar numbers -- both in a three-way race and a two-way race (without Eliot Cutler). Democratic candidate Mike Michaud had 40% in the MPRC poll and 39% in the PPP poll, while Paul LePage had 34% in the MPRC poll and 35% in the PPP poll, and Eliot Cutler had 16.8% in the MPRC poll and 18% in the PPP poll. If Cutler were to decide to not run, the numbers would be even better for Michaud, with 59.6% in MPRC and 54% in PPP -- while LePage would have 36.1% in MPRC and 39% in PPP.

The biggest problem for LePage seems to be that his approval numbers are upside down. The MPRC has his approval/disapproval numbers at 38%/57%, while the PPP had them at 39%/56% -- showing that the majority of voters in the state are very unhappy with his performance as governor. The number for Michaud are just the opposite -- 56%/31.2% in the MPRC and 53%/30% in PPP.

Of course, it is still very early. It's a little more than a year until the 2014 election, and lots of things could happen. But unless LePage can do something to improve those approval numbers, he'll be booted out by the voters.

The Maine Peoples' Resource Center Poll was conducted of 652 likely Maine voters between September 8th and 10th, with a margin of error of 3.8 points.

The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted between August 23rd and 25th of 953 Maine voters, and has a margin of error of 3.2 points.

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