Public Is In A "Throw The Bums Out" Kind Of Mood

The political pundits are still predicting the Republicans will hold on to the House of Representatives in the 2014 election, but there is increasing evidence that may not be true. Poll after poll has shown the public is angry with Congress (and most of them put approval of Congress in single digits).

Now there is a new poll that shows the public may well be building up to another year in which they throw out a lot of incumbents. It is the new Gallup Poll, taken between January 5th and 8th of a random nationwide sample of 1,018 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points.

This survey shows that the number of people believing most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected has fallen to an amazingly low 17%. That's much lower than it was in other years where there was significant turnover in Congress (41% in 1994 when 12 net seats changed, and 30% in 2010 when 15 net seats changed). It also marks the lowest since Gallup has been polling on that issue.

Some of you may be saying that just a general feeling, and not the feeling that voters have about their own congressperson. But the bottom chart shows that figure is also down significantly. Only 46% think their own representative deserves re-election -- the first time that figure has dropped below 50%, even in those years when a large turnover occurred. That doesn't mean there are no safe districts, but it should be a concern for any congressperson in a competitive district.

The only question to me is which party do the voters want to throw out. Personally, I think the Republicans should be the ones worrying the most. First, because they are the ones with the current majority in the House. Second, because while the polls show the public is angry with both parties, those polls show they are more angry with Republicans. And third, because the Republicans disagree with the public on more policy issues than the Democrats (raising the minimum wage, Social Security & Medicare, taxing the rich & corporations, cutting the military budget, helping unemployed & hurting Americans, etc.).

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this could be a very good year for Democrats.