Thursday, January 14, 2016
538.com Predicts A Clinton Win In Iowa & New Hampshire
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has shown himself to be the premier interpreter of the polls in the last few elections. He understands the polls (and which are better than the others) and the factors that matter in an election. That's why many of us political junkies were eager to see what he thought of the presidential races -- and now, he has released his numbers.
Silver predicts Hillary Clinton has a 73% chance of winning Iowa and a 55% chance of winning New Hampshire. His predictions of the outcome are pretty close though. In Iowa, he believes Clinton will get 50% to 41.8% for Sanders. In New Hampshire, he predicts 47.7% for Clinton and 46.2% for Sanders. That's extremely close in New Hampshire, and could easily flip-flop.
He also made predictions for Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire -- giving Cruz the nod in Iowa and Trump the nod in New Hampshire (see chart below).