Friday, June 17, 2016
"Swing" State Presidential Poll Averages (Clinton Vs. Trump)
The pundits tell us the 2016 election will be decided in eleven "swing" states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin). I'm not sure I fully accept that, but it still is a good idea to keep an eye on those states -- just in case it is a close election.
The good folks over at Politico.com took all of the polls that featured Clinton vs. Trump in each of those swing states, and averaged them to get a figure for each state. Those numbers are reflected in the chart above.
Only two states showed a preference for Donald Trump -- Colorado and Iowa. I'm not sure the numbers for Colorado are still valid, since it reflects only one poll that was taken several months ago. The average for Iowa shows Trump with only an advantage of 0.8 points, which is well within the margin of error for any poll (meaning Iowa is really a dead heat between the two candidates).
The average in all the other states gives Clinton a clear advantage -- an advantage I expect to grow after Sanders officially drops out, and Trump's mouth keeps getting him in trouble.
You may have noted the 0's for Nevada. That's because no polls have been taken yet in that state pitting Clinton against Trump.