Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Donald Trump Is Doing Very Poorly With Hispanic Voters

The Hispanic vote has become very important in the presidential campaign. With each election, the percentage of Hispanic voters rises, while the percentage of White voters decreases. And this is a trend that is sure to continue, since Hispanics are the fastest growing segment of the United States population (and most of that growth coming from people born in the United States).

Donald Trump has repeatedly said he will capture the Hispanic vote. He must be living in an alternate reality, because Hispanics don't trust him. They remember how he kicked off his campaign by demonizing Hispanics, and as the charts above show, Trump is doing very poorly among Hispanics.

George W. Bush got about 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and it carried him to his second term in the White House. But Republican candidates since then have not done that well among Hispanics. John McCain got 31% in 2008 and Mitt Romney got 27% in 2012 -- and they both lost. Trump is doing even worse than McCain and Romney. He is currently only getting about 14% support from the Hispanic community (and has an 82% unfavorable rating).

That's not going to cut it -- especially since Trump's comments about Hispanics have energized them. There have been several voter registration efforts among Hispanics, and I believe we can expect a larger percentage of them to show up at the polls in November than ever before.

The charts above were made from a NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Telemundo Poll -- done between July 9th and 13th of a random national sample of 300 registered Hispanic voters, with a margin of error of 5.66 points.

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