Saturday, September 17, 2016

New Texas Poll Shows Clinton Within Striking Distance

These charts were made from information in the new Texas Lyceum Poll -- done between September 1st and 11th of a random sample of Texas voters. The top chart shows the preference of those considered "likely" voters (sample size of 502 with a 4.37 point margin of error). The bottom chart shows all registered voters (sample size of 862 with a 3.32 point margin of error).

Among likely voters, Clinton is trailing Trump by only 7 points. That's far less than a Republican candidate would be leading by in a normal election year. And the unsure percentage (17%) is significantly larger than that 7 point difference.

Among registered voters, the race is much closer -- only 1 point (Trump 30% to Clinton 29%). And the unsure voters make up a whopping 27%.

Those are some pretty amazing numbers for the red state of Texas. Who would have thought that Clinton would be within 1 to 7 points of Trump this late in the election, with an undecided portion of voters between 17% and 27%.

Those are huge undecided numbers for this late in the election season, and it tells me there are a lot of Texas Republicans who are unhappy with Trump as their nominee. The election in Texas will be decided by who those undecided voters finally decide to vote for (if they vote at all).

As I said about another poll yesterday, I'm not at all sure that the "Likely voter" determinations are correct this year. They are determined by past election percentages, and especially in Texas, favor Republicans. But Trump's candidacy means this is not a normal election. I think the registered voter model may well be more accurate than the likely voter model this year.

I believe there will be a huge turnout this year, especially among voters who are scared of a possible Trump presidency (Blacks, Hispanics, young people, women, and some Republicans), and they will be voting for Clinton or a third party -- and in Texas, that will hurt Trump.

I still think it is likely that Trump will win Texas, but not by much. Texas is in play, and a very large turnout could give Clinton a chance to win.

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