Friday, May 11, 2018
DACA Bill Has A Slim Chance Of Passing In The House
The charts above reflect information in a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between May 6th and 8th of a random national sample of 1,500 adults, with a 3 point margin of error.
It shows that a clear majority of Americans supported the DACA program (which protected from deportation those brought to this country as children). They know these "Dreamers" have grown up in this country, obeyed the law, paid their taxes, and got an education or served in the U.S. military (or bot). They think it's wrong and downright mean to deport these people to a country they don't know.
The public also knows which political party agrees with them on DACA. About 60% say the congressional Democrats care about the Dreamers and wants to save DACA. But 61% say the congressional Republicans don't care, and 63% say Donald Trump doesn't care. This is just one more issue on which Republicans disagree with the majority of Americans, and one more reason to vote against them in November.
A few congressional moderate Republicans are beginning to realize that. They don't like being labeled as mean and uncaring about these immigrant Americans. And they don't want to have to defend the refusal to help the Dreamers on the campaign trail.
They have started an effort to get a discharge petition in the House of Representatives (led by Republican Rep. Jeff Denham of California). That discharge petition would force the House to debate and vote on a bill -- in this case a bill to make the DACA program legal. The petition would need a majority of representatives to sign it to be effective. That means at least 28 Republicans would have to sign it, assuming that all 193 Democrats sign. If some Democrats don't sign, then more Republicans will be needed.
Can they get enough votes on the petition? Probably. But that doesn't mean the bill would easily become law. The House Speaker (Paul Ryan, who opposes the effort) could still pull some legislative tricks to block a vote. And if the bill does pass the House, it is likely that some anti-immigrant GOP senator (like Ted Cruz) will filibuster it to death.
The odds of success are long, but at least something is being done. That's more than we have seen for quite a while.