Friday, October 12, 2018

New Poll Has Big lead For Cruz (We Can Fix That In Nov.)

This chart shows the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between October 3rd and 9th of 730 likely voters in Texas, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.

It shows Republican Ted Cruz with a 9 point lead over Democrat Beto O'Rourke (54% to 45%).

If you're a Democrat, don't be upset. We knew this was going to be tough to win, and personally, I don't think that 9 point lead is real. Why? Because this is a "likely voter" model, and that model is constructed using past voting patterns -- in this case probably the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014.

In past midterm elections, Texas has had one of the worst voter turnouts in the nation. In 2010, only 32.1% of eligible voters actually voted -- and in 2014, only 28.5% voted. If this election has a poor turnout like 2010 and 2014, then the likely voter model is probably correct.

I think 2018 is different though. Democrats have a better candidate, and combined with disapproval of Trump, will drive up the number of voters (especially among Democrats).

Democrats need a very large urban and South Texas turnout, combined with more young voters and more suburban women (switching to Democrats). If that happens, then the O'Rouke candidacy could pull off a minor miracle.

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